Register poll: Trump more unpopular, Iowans favor Democrats for Congress

President Donald Trump is less popular than ever among Iowans, who by a two-to-one margin believe the country is “on the wrong track,” according to a new poll by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom.

By a smaller margin, respondents prefer Democrats to Republicans for next year’s Congressional races.

A little more than a year after this state’s voters gave Trump a bigger margin of victory than he received in Texas, just 35 percent of Iowa adults surveyed by Selzer approve of the president’s work, while 60 percent disapprove. Similarly, 29 percent of respondents think the country is headed in the right direction, while 60 percent say it’s on the wrong track. In contrast, 47 percent said Iowa is headed in the right direction, compared to 40 percent who think our state is on the wrong track. Jason Noble reported for the Register,

Trump’s 35-percent job approval rating marks a sharp decline from earlier this year in Iowa. In the July Iowa Poll, 43 percent of respondents approved of Trump’s effort, while 52 percent disapproved, a differential of 9 percentage points. Now, he’s 25 points under water. […]

Trump is unpopular across a wide range of demographic groups in the state.

Sixty-nine percent of women, 68 percent of Iowans making less than $50,000 a year, 67 percent of city-dwellers and 62 percent of independents disapprove of his performance. […]

Across all the demographics recorded in the poll, just two show a majority approving of Trump: Republicans, at 78 percent, and evangelical Christians, at 51 percent.

Although the president still has support from most of his base, it’s striking that one in five Iowa Republicans do not approve of his work. He’s barely in positive territory among evangelical Christians. I am continually amazed that someone who’s been in public life as long as Trump has behaves so inappropriately in so many situations. Dr. Ford Vox, a brain specialist, wrote in STAT news last week that he observes “worrisome symptoms” when watching the president’s speech and behavior, raising “concern for a neurocognitive disease process.” In May, STAT’s Sharon Begley closely examined the deterioration in Trump’s vocabulary and ability to speak in coherent sentences.

Back to the Selzer poll for the Register and Mediacom: Noble wrote up the Congressional findings in a separate article.

Forty percent of Iowa Poll respondents say they would vote for a Democrat if congressional elections were held today, compared to 34 percent who say they would back a Republican. […]

Democrats are favored among women, all age groups, those earning under $70,000 and people living in cities and towns. A narrow plurality of 31 percent of independents say they would back a Democrat, compared with 28 percent who say they’d vote Republican. […]

The results are starkest in Iowa’s 1st congressional district, which encompasses 20 northeast Iowa counties and is currently held by two-term Republican U.S. Rep. Rod Blum.

Despite the GOP incumbent, 47 percent of poll respondents in the district say they would vote for a Democrat, while just 29 percent say they’ll vote Republican. Those represent the highest Democratic numbers in the state, eclipsing even the 2nd District, where Democratic U.S. Rep. Dave Loebsack is a six-term incumbent.

Granted, the margin of error for a subsample (like respondents in IA-01) is larger than for the entire poll (in this case, plus or minus 3.5 percent). Also, Selzer surveyed Iowa adults, not registered voters or people planning to vote in 2018. Still, those are terrible numbers for Blum, a top target for Democrats and several outside groups. Blum has been underwater in the last several polls taken in his district. The latest survey by Public Policy Polling found he trailed an unnamed Democratic opponent by 51 percent to 43 percent.

Senator Chuck Grassley’s numbers (51 percent approve/40 percent disapprove) are his worst measured in a Des Moines Register poll since 1982, Noble reported. A decade or so, Grassley’s approval rating was routinely in the mid- to high 60s, sometimes above 70 percent. I regularly hear from Iowans who tell me they used to have a lot of respect for our senior senator, but “he’s changed.” Noble pointed out that Grassley’s numbers were a lot worse on the last day the new poll was in the field, when his notorious “booze or women or movies” comment was receiving unflattering attention nationwide.

Nearly three years into her term, Senator Joni Ernst is still in positive territory: 48 percent approve of the job she is doing, compared to 38 percent who disapprove of her performance and 15 percent who aren’t sure.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. Click here for the full published results of the new poll.

P.S.- Social conservative activist and blogger Shane Vander Hart finally “pulled the trigger” this week, changing his voter registration from Republican to no-party.

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