Continuing a Bleeding Heartland tradition, I encourage readers to post their general election predictions as comments in this thread before 7 am on November 8. Predictions submitted by e-mail or posted on social media will not be considered. It only takes a minute to register for an account here, log in, and write a comment.
Anyone can enter, whether you now live or have ever lived in Iowa. You can change your mind, as long as you post your revised predictions as an additional comment in this thread before the Tuesday morning deadline.
No money’s at stake, just bragging rights like those most recently claimed by Bleeding Heartland user zbert for Iowa caucus predictions and JoshHughesIA for having the best guesses about this year’s primary elections. This isn’t “The Price is Right”; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether they were a little high or low. Even if you have no idea, please try to take a guess on every question.
Minor-party or independent candidates are on the ballot for some races, so the percentages of the vote for Democratic and Republican nominees need not add up to 100. You can view the complete list of candidates for federal and state offices in Iowa here (pdf).
Good luck, and remember: you can’t win if you don’t play.
1. How many Iowans will cast ballots in the 2016 general election? For reference, 1,589,899 Iowans voted in the 2012 general election, and 1,528,715 Iowans voted in the 2008 general election.
2. How many electoral votes will Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump win? (538 total)
3. What percentage of the national popular vote will Clinton and Trump receive?
4. What percentage of the vote will Clinton and Trump win in Iowa?
5. What percentage of the vote will Chuck Grassley and Patty Judge receive in the U.S. Senate race?
6. What percentage of the vote will Rod Blum and Monica Vernon receive in Iowa’s first Congressional district?
7. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Christopher Peters receive in IA-02?
8. What percentage of the vote will David Young and Jim Mowrer receive in IA-03?
9. What percentage of the vote will Steve King and Kim Weaver receive in IA-04?
10. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa House next Tuesday? Currently there are 57 Republicans and 43 Democrats.
11. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa Senate next Tuesday? Currently there are 25 Democrats, 23 Republicans, and one independent. Your answer should add up to 49, because voters in Iowa Senate district 45 will choose Joe Seng’s successor in a December 27 special election.
12. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
13. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
14. What percentage of yes and no retention votes will Iowa Supreme Court Chief Justice Mark Cady receive? For reference, Justice David Wiggins received 54.5 percent “yes” votes in 2012.
15. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?
16. In the presidential race, which state will be decided by the narrowest margin (again, in terms of percentage of the vote)?
17. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. House starting January 2017? (435 total) Currently there are 246 Republicans, 186 Democrats, and three vacancies.
18. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. Senate starting January 2017? (100 total) For this question, I am counting independents who caucus with Democrats as Democrats. Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 in the Democratic caucus (including two independents).
19. How many of Iowa’s 99 counties will Clinton and Trump carry? For reference, in 2008, John McCain carried 46 counties, Barack Obama 53. But in 2012, Obama carried only 38 counties, Mitt Romney 61. The latest voter registration totals for all 99 counties are here.
The last question will serve as a tie-breaker, if needed.
17 Comments
2016 entry
1. 1,500,000
2. Clinton 273, Trump 265
3. Clinton 46, Trump 44
4. Trump 47, Clinton 44
5. Grassley 57, Judge 39
6. Blum 53, Vernon 47
7. Loebsack 60, Peters 40
8. Young 54, Mowrer 46
9. King 65, Weaver 35
10. GOP 55, Democrats 45
11. GOP 26, Democrats 23
12. First Congressional District
13. Senate District 32
14. Yes 64, No 36
15. Missouri Senate
16. North Carolina
17. 235 GOP, 200 Democrat
18. 51 GOP, 49 Democrat
19. Trump 70, Clinton 29
southiowamoderate Thu 3 Nov 3:01 PM
2016 Entry
1. 1,329,000
2. Hillary 313 Trump 225
3. 49% Hillary 44% Trump 7% Other
4. 46% Hillary 45% Trump 9% Other
5. 58% Grassley 42% Judge
6. 48% Blum 52% Vernon
7. 58% Lobesack 42% Peters
8. 54% Young 46% Mower
9. 59% King 41% Weaver
10. 53 Republicans 47 Democrats
11. 26 Democrats 23 Republicans
12. 1st District
13. Iowa Senate District 32
14. 60%
15. Missouri
16. Iowa
17. Republicans 237 Democrats 198
18. 52 Democrats 48 Republicans
19. Hillary 35 Trump 64
ajwebber1985 Thu 3 Nov 3:56 PM
2016 Entry
1. 1,450,000
2. Clinton 322, Trump 216
3. 49% Clinton, 45% Trump, 6% Other
4. 48% Trump, 44% Clinton, 8% Other (although I hope I’m way off)
5. 61% Grassley, 39% Judge
6. 51% Blum, 49% Vernon (once again, hope I’m wrong)
7. 56% Loebsack, 44% Peters
8. 55% Young, 45% Mowrer
9. 64% King, 36% Weaver
10. 55 Republicans, 45 Democrats
11. 25 Democrats, 24 Republicans
12. 1st District
13. Iowa Senate District 30
14. 62%
15. New Hampshire (wish it was Missouri, but Blunt will win by 4+, in my opinion)
16. North Carolina
17. Republicans 238 Democrats 197
18. 50-50, with VP Kaine as tiebreaker
19. Hillary 24 Trump 75
DSM4Cy Thu 3 Nov 5:25 PM
Aiming to Win!
1. 1,573,083
2. Clinton: 295 Trump 243
3. Clinton: 48 Trump 46
4. Trump 47 – Clinton 44
5. Grassley 58 – Judge 38
6. Blum 52 – Vernon 48
7. Loebsack 58 – Peters 42
8. Young 52 – Mowrer 46
9. King 59 – Weaver 41
10. Republicans 54 – Democrats 46
11. 25 Republicans, 23 Democrats, 1 Independent
12. Blum and Vernon
13. Louis Zumbach v. Dick Whitehead
14. Mark Cady: 59 percent Yes
15. Missouri (Blunt v. Kander)
16. New Hampshire
17. 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats
18. 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans
19 Trump: 68, Clinton 31
dhm1985 Fri 4 Nov 4:18 PM
Predictions
1. 1.44 million
2. Clinton-3`3 Trump 225
3. Clinton-53 Trump-45 Others-2
4. Trump-51 Clinton-48 Others-1
5. Grassley: 53 Judge: 46 Other: 1
6. Vernon-51 Blum-49
7. Loebsack-55 Peters-45
8. Young-53 Mowrer-47
9. King-60 Weaver-40
10. Republicans-56 Democrats-44
11. Democrats-26 Republicans- 23 Indy-1
12. Blum v. Vernon
13. Iowa Senate District 29
14. Cady-56
15. Nevada
16. Ohio
17. Republicans-232 Democrats-203
18. 51 Democrats 49 Republicans
19. Trump-65 Clinton-35
moderateiadem Sun 6 Nov 11:20 PM
East coast guesses
By now my Iowa touch is pretty much gone, but here we go anyway:
1. 1,595,000
2. Clinton 293, Trump 245
3. Clinton 49%, Trump 46%
4. Trump 50%, Clinton 46%
5. Grassley 59%, Judge 39%
6. Blum 53%, Vernon 47%
7. Loebsack 55%, Peters 45%
8. Young 56%, Mowrer 44%
9. King 66%, Weaver 34%
10. GOP 57, Dem 43
11. GOP 27, Dem 22
12. 1st Congressional District
13. Senate District 32
14. Yes, 57%
15. New Hampshire
16. Florida
17. GOP 233, Dem 202
18. GOP 50, Dem 50
19. Trump 73, Clinton 26
rf Mon 7 Nov 7:38 AM
2016 predictions - Iowa style
1. 1,581,347
2. Clinton 323, Trump 215
3. Clinton 49%, Trump 44.5%
4. Clinton 46%, Trump 49% (Johnson 4%, Stein 1%)
5. Grassley 60%, Judge 38%
6. Blum 51%, Vernon 49%
7. Loebsack 59%, Peters 41%
8. Young 54%, Mowrer 45%
9. King 62%, Weaver 38%
10. GOP 54, Dems 46
11. GOP 26, Dems 23
12. CD-1 – Blum will win by 2 point margin
13. SD 32
14. 58% yes for CJ Mark Cady
15. New Hampshire, where Ayotte will win by 0.6% margin
16. Florida, which Clinton will win by 0.8% margin
17. GOP 233, Dems 202
18. GOP 51, Dems 49
19. Trump – 70 Iowa counties; Clinton 29 counties
Seth Andersen Mon 7 Nov 2:11 PM
Predictions
1. 1.590M
2. Clinton 341, Trump 197
3. Clinton 49%, Trump 45%
4. Trump 47%, Clinton 45%
5. Grassley 57%, Judge 42%
6. Vernon 48%, Blum 47%
7. Loebsack 55%, Peters 44%
8. Mowrer 48%, Young 48% (Mowrer wins)
9. King 61%, Weaver 36%
10. GOP 54, Democrats 46
11. Democrats 24, GOP 24, IND 1
12. 3rd District, Mowrer vs. Young
13. Iowa HD 58
14. 60% YES
15. Missouri, Kander vs. Blunt
16. Ohio
17. GOP 234, Democrats 201
18. Democrats 52, GOP 48
19. Trump 68, Clinton 31
ashtonayers Mon 7 Nov 4:43 PM
Optimistic
I’m feeling pretty optimistic about tomorrow. Here’s what I got:
1. 1,540,00 (down slightly)
2. 348-190 HRC (That’s a swing state sweep + NE-02 & ME-02)
3. 48-42 HRC nationally
4. 46-46 HRC by like 2,000 votes or some very small margin here in Iowa
5. 62-35 Grassley (sad)
6. 51-49 Vernon
7. 62-38 Loebsack
8. 48-45 Young (prove me wrong, IA-03!!!)
9. 63-35 King
10. 52-48 Republican control of the IA House
11. 25-23-1 Democratic Control (Incumbency!!!)
12. 1st District
13. HD 55, Ritter v. Bergen
14. 60% YES
15. Missouri Senate
16. Iowa!!
17. 205-227 Republican Control (rosy!!)
18. 53-47 Dem Control (Pick up IL, WI, NH, NC, MO, IN)
19. 69 for Trump and 30 for HRC
Prove me right, Iowa!!!!!
JoshHughesIA Mon 7 Nov 8:03 PM
Cautiously optimistic
1. 1,602,543
2. HRC 294 DJT 234
3. HRC 47%, DJT 42%
4. DJT 47%, HRC 45%
5. Grassley 52%, Judge 42%
6. Vernon 48%, Blum, 47%
7. Loebsack 60%-43%
8. Young 47%, Mowrer 43%
9. King 58%-42% ugh.
10. 55-46
11. 26-22-1
12.1st district
13.no idea
14. 53%
15. Pennsylvania Senate
16. North Carolina
17.226 R, 209 Dr
18. D 50, R 50
19 70 Trump, 29 Clinton
llsl9801 Tue 8 Nov 12:08 AM
Hoping for better results in reality.
1. 1,500,000
2. 284 Clinton, 248 Trump, 6 McMullin (Link to map at the bottom)
3. 48% Clinton, 45% Trump, 5% Johnson, 2% Other
4. 47.1% Clinton, 47.0% Trump, 5% Johnson, 0.9% Other
5. 58% Grassley, 42% Judge
6. 52% Blum, 48% Vernquist
7. 58% Loesback, 42% Peters
8. 50% Young, 49% Mower
9. 56% King, 44% Weaver
10. 52-R, 48-D
11. 24-R, 25-D, 1-I
12. IA-03, Mower & Young
13. Senate District 32
14. 55%
15. Missouri (Blunt v. Kandar)
16. Iowa
17. 223-R, 210-D, 2-I
18. 52-R, 48-D
19. 37 Counties Clinton, 62 Counties Trump
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html?map=HI_1,AK_6,FL_7,NH_2,MI_3,VT_1,ME_2,ME1_3,ME2_6,RI_2,NY_1,PA_3,NJ_2,DE_2,MD_1,VA_2,WV_5,OH_6,IN_6,IL_2,CT_3,WI_3,NC_7,DC_1,MA_1,TN_6,AR_5,MO_6,GA_7,SC_7,KY_5,AL_5,LA_5,MS_5,IA_3,MN_3,OK_5,TX_6,NM_2,KS_6,NE_5,NE2_6,SD_6,ND_5,WY_5,MT_6,CO_2,ID_5,UT_8,AZ_7,NV_3,OR_3,WA_2,CA_1
zbert Tue 8 Nov 5:48 AM
Nightmare Scenario...
An alternative. With the map I posted, if Trump takes Pennslyvania then the electoral college would be
264 Clinton, 268 Trump, 6 McMullin.
No one would be over 270, which then sends the election to congress. If an additional check is needed due to that fight, the courts are tied up at 4-4.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html?map=HI_1,AK_6,FL_7,NH_2,MI_3,VT_1,ME_2,ME1_3,ME2_6,RI_2,NY_1,PA_7,NJ_2,DE_2,MD_1,VA_2,WV_5,OH_6,IN_6,IL_2,CT_3,WI_3,NC_7,DC_1,MA_1,TN_6,AR_5,MO_6,GA_7,SC_7,KY_5,AL_5,LA_5,MS_5,IA_3,MN_3,OK_5,TX_6,NM_2,KS_6,NE_5,NE2_6,SD_6,ND_5,WY_5,MT_6,CO_2,ID_5,UT_8,AZ_7,NV_3,OR_3,WA_2,CA_1
zbert Tue 8 Nov 6:14 AM
that would really be a nightmare
I don’t see Trump taking Pennsylvania, though.
desmoinesdem Tue 8 Nov 6:33 AM
2016 predictions
1. 1,480,000
2. 334 Clinton 204 Trump
3. 49% Clinton 44% Trump
4. 46 Clinton 48 Trump
5. 59 Grassley 41 Judge
6. 51 Vernon 49 Blum
7. 60 Loebsack 40 Peters
8. 52 Young 48 Mowrer
9. 58 King 42 Weaver
10. 53 Republicans 47 Democrats
11. 24 Republicans 26 Democrats
12. 1st district
13. Senate district 32
14. 59 Yes 41 No
15. Missouri
16. North Carolina
17. 231 Republicans 204 Democrats
18. 51 Democrats 49 Republican
19. 30 Clinton 69 Trump
gellerbach Tue 8 Nov 6:24 AM
2016 predictions
1. 1,480,000
2. 334 Clinton 204 Trump
3. 49% Clinton 44% Trump
4. 46 Clinton 48 Trump
5. 59 Grassley 41 Judge
6. 51 Vernon 49 Blum
7. 60 Loebsack 40 Peters
8. 52 Young 48 Mowrer
9. 58 King 42 Weaver
10. 53 Republicans 47 Democrats
11. 24 Republicans 26 Democrats
12. 1st district
13. Senate district 32
14. 59 Yes 41 No
15. Missouri
16. North Carolina
17. 231 Republicans 204 Democrats
18. 51 Democrats 49 Republican
19. 30 Clinton 69 Trump
gellerbach Tue 8 Nov 6:24 AM
doomsday
Going with my pessimistic scenario today. (Not worst-case, because it could end up a lot worse than this.)
1. Turnout 1,510,000
2. Clinton 308, Trump 230 I gave Clinton the Kerry 2004 states (including Maine’s 2nd district) plus VA, CO, NV, NH, FL. I gave Trump IA, OH, NC, and Nebraska’s 2nd district
3. national: Clinton 49 percent, Trump 45 percent
4. Iowa: Trump 48 percent, Clinton 46 percent
5. Grassley 59 percent, Judge 40 percent
6. Blum 52 percent, Vernon 48 percent
7. Loebsack 57 percent, Peters 43 percent
8. Young 50 percent, Mowrer 48 percent
9. King 60 percent, Weaver 40 percent
10. 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats
11. 27 Republicans, 21 Democrats, one independent (the GOP caucus won’t welcome David Johnson back if they win an outright majority of seats)
12. IA-03
13. Iowa Senate district 36 (Sodders/Edler)
14. 56 percent yes for retaining Cady
15. Tough for me to decide between New Hampshire and North Carolina. Going with New Hampshire
16. North Carolina (was tempted to pick Ohio, though)
17. 236 Republicans, 199 Democrats
18. 50-50 US Senate
19. 25 counties for Clinton, 74 for Trump
desmoinesdem Tue 8 Nov 6:30 AM
best guess
1. Turnout 1,490,000
2. Clinton 330, Trump 208; Clinton wins the Kerry states, Iowa, Maines 2nd district, North Carolina and NE 02. Trump wins Ohio
3. national: Clinton 50 percent, Trump 45 percent
4. Iowa: Trump 47.5 percent, Clinton 47.7 percent
5. Grassley 60 percent, Judge 39 percent
6. Blum 49 percent, Vernon 51 percent
7. Loebsack 56 percent, Peters 45 percent
8. Young 49 percent, Mowrer 48.5 percent
9. King 61 percent, Weaver 39 percent
10. 55 Republicans and 43 Democrats
11. 24 Republicans, 24 Democrats and David Johnson
12. IA-03
13. Iowa Senate district 32 (Schoenjahn/Johnson)
14. 59 percent retaining Cady
15. North Carolina
16. Iowa
17. 235 Republicans, 200 Democrats
18. 49 Republicans, 51 Democrats
19. 29 Clinton, 70 Trump
johannes Tue 8 Nov 6:58 AM