Polls just closed in Wisconsin, but thousands of people are still waiting in long lines to vote. Why does this country tolerate the failure to open enough polling places in so many states? High turnout for both the Democratic and Republican primaries should have been anticipated, especially since Wisconsin has an “open” primary, where independents can change party registration on election day.

Voters had to show photo ID to cast ballots today. A federal lawsuit challenging Wisconsin’s new law is pending.

I’ll update this post periodically with results from tonight. Here are a few links to get the conversation started.

Bernie Sanders is expected to win today’s primary, but he is unlikely to net significantly more delegates than Hillary Clinton will. Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel explains why.

Clinton and Sanders will debate next in New York ahead of that state’s primary. The New York Daily News transcript of Sanders’ recent interview with the editorial board has been a frequent topic of conversation on social media. Conventional wisdom (embodied as it is so often by Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post) holds that it “was pretty close to a disaster.” I doubt many voters will turn away from Sanders because of it.

Eric Ostermeier of Smart Politics challenged the idea that this year’s Democratic presidential contest is less competitive than Hillary Clinton’s race against Barack Obama in 2008 (emphasis in original):

Clinton has won 18 state primaries and caucuses with 14 states going for Sanders; back in 2008, Obama had won 21 of these state primaries and caucuses with just 11 in Clinton’s column. […]

Five states have already had victory margins inside of two percentage points: Missouri (0.2 points), Iowa (0.2), Massachusetts (1.4), Michigan (1.5), and Illinois (1.8). Unfortunately for Sanders he lost four of these with the only late-night close race call in his favor coming in Michigan.

By contrast, just one of the 32 states to vote thus far in 2016 had a victory margin under two points in 2008 – Missouri (1.4 points).

Overall, contests in 15 states have been more closely decided than they were in 2008 with 17 states having a larger margin of victory.

Sanders has cut into Clinton’s pledged delegate lead since March 15 but still faces long odds of catching Clinton in the delegate race. Patrick Healy and Yamiche Alcindor wrote an interesting piece for the New York Times on some strategic errors by Sanders early on, which may end up costing him the nomination.

Donald Trump had arguably the worst week of his campaign last week. The fact that he could not win a general election is starting to sink in with Republican voters. He’s let go some of his campaign staff (though not the one accused of assaulting a reporter). Ted Cruz has been rising in Wisconsin’s polls, as Trump’s prospects for winning an overall majority of pledged delegates before the Republican National Convention appear to be falling. However, Trump still has a commanding lead in his home state of New York, the next to vote, and other big northeastern states don’t look like promising territory for Cruz.

UPDATE: NBC called Wisconsin for Sanders and Cruz before 8:30 pm. All further updates are after the jump.

Yet again, Sanders crushed it in an open primary. Politico’s Gabriel Debenedetti points out,

Sanders will need to take full advantage of Tuesday’s open primary because there aren’t many of them left. There are just 18 states remaining in his nomination contest against Hillary Clinton and just two – Indiana and Montana – are classified as open primaries with no restrictions on who can vote in the Democratic contest.

For the underdog fighting to chip into Clinton’s lead, that means the pressure is on in 86-delegate Wisconsin — and that he has to soon figure out how to win big in states with closed primaries, which carry a hefty portion of the delegates from here on out.

After Wisconsin, Sanders can expect to perform well in the two remaining caucuses in Wyoming and North Dakota. But some of the most delegate-rich states remaining host closed primaries – including New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland and New Jersey – that have worked in Clinton’s favor. California, the biggest delegate prize of all, is semi-closed — meaning it’s open to registered Democrats and those who decline to state a party, but no one else.

SECOND UPDATE: According to exit polls (which should be taken with a grain of salt), Cruz beat Trump even among non-college graduates today. He’s at 49 percent of the vote.

Trump chose not to give a speech tonight. He doesn’t take losing well, judging by his campaign’s official statement.

Sanders is winning Wisconsin by double digits, buoyed by winning around 70 percent of the votes from independents who chose to participate in the Democratic primary.

Cruz and Sanders supporters will be encouraged by Eric Ostermeier’s review of Wisconsin as a bellwether state: “Wisconsin is the only state to back the eventual nominee from both parties in every cycle since 1972, save for a non-binding Democratic beauty contest primary in 1984.”

THIRD UPDATE: Dan Diamond added up the raw votes cast so far for each candidate:

Clinton ——— 9.1 million
Trump ——– 7.9 mill
Bernie —— 6.6 mill
Cruz —— 5.9 mill
Rubio — 3.4 mill
Kasich – 2.9 mill

I laughed out loud at Cruz name-dropping “Jewish day schools” during his Wisconsin victory speech. Very few American Jews support his concept of “religious liberty” (freedom to discriminate against LGBT people).

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: Greg Giroux produced a fantastic spreadsheet comparing the 2008 and 2016 Wisconsin primary results at the county level.

Exit polls show John Kasich lost support during the final week, as “stop Trump” Republicans flowed toward Cruz.