Hillary Clinton has a narrow but stable lead over Bernie Sanders among likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, according to the new poll Selzer & Co conducted for the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg News. Clinton is the first choice of 48 percent of respondents, while 39 percent favor Sanders and 4 percent Martin O’Malley. Selzer’s previous survey in October showed Clinton ahead of Sanders by 48 to 41 percent with Joe Biden not in the race, and by a 42-37 margin when respondents had the option of choosing Biden. After the jump I enclose highlights from Tony Leys’ write-up on the latest survey in today’s Des Moines Register and from Margaret Talev’s report for Bloomberg News.

The question now is whose campaign will do a better job identifying supporters and turning them out on a cold night in February. Our household continues to receive regular phone calls from field organizers for Clinton and Sanders and occasional calls from O’Malley’s campaign. Clinton could outperform her poll numbers if her larger field staff in Iowa does its job well, or if Sanders’ support is more concentrated in certain areas. Candidates can win only so many delegates per precinct, whether 50 people or 500 people show up there on February 1, so the Iowa Democratic caucus system rewards candidates with support more evenly spread out across the state.

Sanders could outperform his poll numbers in Iowa on the strength of greater enthusiasm among his backers. He still consistently draws larger crowds to his Iowa events. Now that the campaign seems to be going more smoothly for Clinton, Democrats leaning toward her may not feel it’s important for them to show up for the caucuses.

A Bleeding Heartland post is in progress on why O’Malley can’t get any traction here, even though he has been doing everything right in terms of retail politics and organizing, and his stump speeches are consistently well-received among Iowa Democratic audiences.

O’Malley’s best hope for viability in most precincts will be gamesmanship by well-trained precinct captains for Clinton or Sanders. The Iowa Democratic Party sets a fixed number of county delegates for each precinct, and the math that determines delegate apportionment creates a zero-sum game. “Donating” a few of candidate A’s supporters to candidate B can cost candidate C a delegate. This kind of maneuver cost Paul Simon a delegate in my precinct at my very first caucus in 1988.

Let’s assume O’Malley’s supporters are below the 15 percent threshold in my precinct, and I’m a captain for one of the other candidates. When it’s time to realign, sending a few people from my group to make O’Malley viable may cost our main rival a delegate, compared to what would happen if the O’Malley crowd were forced to go to corners for their second-choice candidates. I heard many stories along these lines after the 2008 caucuses. For instance, in the Clive precinct next door to my neighborhood, Democrats backing Clinton and John Edwards helped make Bill Richardson viable, in order to prevent Barack Obama from winning a second delegate.

UPDATE: Quinnipiac released its latest Iowa poll on December 15: Clinton is at 51 percent, Sanders 40 percent, O’Malley 6 percent, and just 3 percent undecided. I’ve added below highlights from the polling memo; click through for full results with cross-tabs.

From the December 14 article by Tony Leys in the Des Moines Register:

Most Iowa Democrats like both of their leading candidates, the new poll shows. Eighty-two percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers have favorable feelings toward Clinton, and 80 percent of them have favorable feelings toward Sanders. […]

Clinton draws support from 64 percent of those 65 or older, while Sanders draws support from 58 percent of those younger than 45.

Clinton also leads by sizable margins with women (54 percent to 35 percent) and the highest income group, earning $100,000 or more (55 percent to 30 percent). […]

Sanders has an edge with self-identified liberals (48 percent to 44 percent), the small group of independents (51 percent to 26 percent) and a group pollster J. Ann Selzer calls the “nones,” those who have no religious preference (55 percent to 36 percent).

The Iowa Poll of 404 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Dec. 7-10 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

From the December 14 report by Margaret Talev for Bloomberg News:

Clinton and Sanders both have vulnerabilities based on their past stances on issues. Seventy-one percent of those surveyed said they disagree with Clinton’s support of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003; 61 percent disagree with Sanders’ opposition of holding gunmakers legally responsible for mass shootings. A majority of Clinton’s supporters, 54 percent, agree with her vote to bail out Wall Street banks in 2008 financial crisis while two-thirds of Sanders’ supporters disagree with that vote.

“Bernie Sanders has proven to be a worthy adversary,” [pollster J.Ann] Selzer said. “He’s attracting people who, as a coalition, together, can be a force to be reckoned with, if he can turn them out. They’re notoriously difficult.”

Perceptions about Clinton and Sanders boil down to a contrast of power versus compassion. Iowa voters who say they will definitely or probably attend the Democratic caucus give Clinton the edge in nine of 13 traits, including having the best temperament and life experience to be president and being best able to combat Islamic terrorism and manage the economy. More say Sanders is trustworthy and would do more to help the middle class and rein in Wall Street. […]

Clinton also is locking in her supporters at a higher rate than Sanders; 64 percent of Clinton supporters say they’ve made up their mind and can’t be persuaded to support a different candidate as their top choice, while 55 percent of Sanders’ supporters say their minds are made up. […]

Clinton is leading Sanders with women (54 percent to 35 percent), those 65 and older (64 percent to 24 percent) and those earning $100,000 or more (55 percent to 30 percent.) Sanders continues to lead Clinton with first-time caucusgoers (49 percent to 40 percent), Iowans younger than 45 (58 percent to 31 percent), liberals (48 percent to 44 percent) and independents who plan to caucus with Democrats (51 percent to 26 percent) as well as those who do not affiliate with any religion (55 percent to 36 percent).

UPDATE: From Quinnipiac’s December 15 news release:

With an almost 2-1 lead among women, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont 51 – 40 percent among Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley has 6 percent with 3 percent undecided.

This compares to the results of a November 25 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Clinton over Sanders 51 – 42 percent.

Today, women back Clinton over Sanders 59 – 32 percent, with 7 percent for O’Malley, while men back Sanders over Clinton 52 – 39 percent, with 5 percent for O’Malley.

Despite recent attacks, 35 percent of likely Democratic Caucus-goers say the economy and jobs are most important in deciding who to nominate, as 15 percent list health care, with 11 percent for climate change, 10 percent for foreign policy and 7 percent for terrorism.

Sanders can better handle the economy, 45 percent of Democrats say, while 44 percent say Clinton is better on this issue. Clinton tops Sanders on handling other top issues:
59 – 32 percent on health care;
77 – 16 percent on foreign policy;
68 – 20 percent on terrorism.
Sanders is better on climate change, 42 percent of Democratic Caucus-goers say, while 36 percent say Clinton is better. […]

Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants give Sanders an 85 – 7 percent favorability rating. Clinton gets an 81 – 16 percent favorability.

Rating Clinton’s personal qualities, Democrats say:
69 – 25 percent that she is honest and trustworthy;
92 – 7 percent that she has strong leadership qualities;
79 – 19 percent that she cares about their needs and problems;
76 – 20 percent that she shares their values;
92 – 8 percent that she has the right kind of experience to be president.
Rating Sanders, Democrats say:
92 – 3 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
82 – 10 percent that he has strong leadership qualities;
93 – 4 percent that he cares about their needs and problems;
86 – 8 percent that he shares their values;
66 – 26 percent that he has the right kind of experience to be president.
Clinton has a good chance of defeating the Republican nominee in the general election, 89 percent of likely Democratic Caucus-goers say, while 57 percent say Sanders has a good chance of winning.

Homegrown jihadists pose a greater threat to the U.S., 62 percent of Iowa Democrats say, while 18 percent say radicalized foreign visitors are a greater threat and 11 percent say terrorists hiding among Syrian refugees are a greater threat.

Democrats support 89 – 8 percent banning people on the U.S. terrorism watch list from purchasing guns.

From December 4 – 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 727 Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.