Hillary Clinton has gained ground in polls of Iowa Democrats since the first debate on October 13 and her marathon questioning by a hostile U.S. House select committee on October 22. The four most recent surveys here, all released in the last two weeks, put her ahead of Bernie Sanders by disparate margins. I enclose below highlights from polls released by Loras College, Monmouth College, Monmouth University, and Public Policy Polling, which has the newest Iowa poll out.
The big question is which pollster, if any, has a handle on distinguishing likely caucus-goers from others who will pick up the phone for an unknown number and agree to take a survey. Clinton leads by 14 points in Monmouth College/KBUR/Douglas Fulmer & Associates but by 32 points in Public Policy Polling and by a very-hard-to-believe 41 points in Monmouth University. One or more of those polls has to be off by much more than the mathematical margin of error, which assumes a respondent pool that perfectly represents the target population.
How many Iowans will come to their Democratic precinct caucuses on February 1 is anyone’s guess. No one seems to expect turnout close to the record-shattering level of nearly 240,000 in January 2008. If it’s much lower than that, who benefits: Clinton, by virtue of a superior campaign organization, or Sanders, whose supporters appear to be much more excited about their candidate? Former Senator Tom Harkin, who is backing Clinton, told the New York Times after the Iowa Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner, “This is not a slam dunk for her,” citing the tremendous enthusiasm for Sanders. With just a fraction of the mainstream media coverage Obama was receiving at similar stages of the campaign in 2007, Sanders has been drawing huge crowds in Iowa. His campaign is just starting to draw explicit contrasts with Clinton and only began running television commercials this week.
On a related note, Shane Goldmacher reports for Politico today on speculation about turnout for the 2016 Republican caucuses. Some Iowa GOP insiders predict 150,000 caucus-goers or more, while others think turnout will be only slightly higher than the record of 121,501, set in 2012. Bleeding Heartland will cover the latest Republican polling in Iowa in a future post; Ben Carson has led in most surveys conducted during the past month.
The Loras College poll surveyed 500 likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers between October 19 and 22, so mostly before any coverage of Clinton’s appearance before the House Select Committee on Benghazi. This sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent. Here’s the likely voter screen: “Likely caucus voter was defined as those indicating they were ‘definitely or very likely’ to vote in the 2016 Iowa Caucus. Those indicating they were ‘somewhat likely’ were subjected to further screen question regarding their general interest in politics. Only those indicating they were ‘very interested’ in politics were then accepted within the sample as a likely caucus voter.” The polling memo is here; for the full questionnaire and more details on methodology, click here. First choice findings from the Loras College poll of Democrats: Clinton 61.6 percent, Sanders 23.6 percent, undecided 10.2 percent, Martin O’Malley 3.2 percent, Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb less than 1 percent. Second choices from the same poll: Sanders 34.2 percent, undecided 34.2 percent, Clinton 19.0 percent, O’Malley 10.4 percent. Trailing by such a large margin in second choices as well as first choices is very bad news for O’Malley’s hopes of being viable in a majority of Iowa precincts.
Monmouth University of New Jersey surveyed 400 Iowa voters from October 22 to 25 and did not provide details on the likely voter screen. This sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. From the polling memo:
In the first Monmouth University Poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers in the 2016 cycle, Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 41 point lead over Bernie Sanders. This is the first poll conducted after Clinton’s appearance before the Benghazi Committee and Joe Biden’s announcement that he would not mount a presidential campaign.
Clinton currently garners the support of 65% of likely Democratic caucusgoers to 24% for Bernie Sanders. Martin O’Malley clocks in at 5% and Larry Lessig has 1% of the vote. Clinton enjoys a large lead over Sanders among both male (55% to 33%) and female (73% to 16%) voters. She also has an edge across the ideological spectrum, leading among voters who are very liberal (57% to 34%), somewhat liberal (68% to 22%), and moderate (69% to 19%). […]
Four-in-ten (40%) Democratic caucusgoers say they are completely settled on the candidate they will support on February 1st. For comparison, this is double the number of likely Republican caucusgoers who said the same (19%) in a Monmouth poll released yesterday. Another 37% of Democrats have a strong preference but are willing to consider other candidates, 10% have a slight preference and 13% are largely undecided. Clinton’s support appears to be more solid than the Sanders vote. Among Clinton voters, 49% are completely decided and 35% have a strong preference, with the remaining 16% looking at other candidates. Among Sanders voters, just 27% are completely decided and 47% have a strong preference, with 24% looking at other candidates.
Douglas Fulmer & Associates, commissioned by Monmouth College (Illinois) and KBUR of Burlington, Iowa, surveyed 681 Iowa Democrats between October 29 and 31, providing no details on the likely voter screen 2015. The statistical margin of error is plus or minus 3.76 percent. Toplines from this survey: Clinton 45.8 percent, Sanders 31.7 percent, undecided 17.0 percent, O’Malley 5.4 percent.
Public Policy Polling surveyed “615 usual Democratic primary voters from October 30th to November 1st.” The margin of error for this sample is plus or minus 3.9 percent. PPP disclosed that “80% of participants responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet.” From the polling memo:
On the Democratic side in Iowa Hillary Clinton has really reestablished her dominance, getting 57% to 25% for Bernie Sanders, 7% for Martin O’Malley, and 1% for the now departed Lawrence Lessig. Clinton’s seen a 15 point improvement in her net favorability rating over the last six weeks, from +42 at 65/23 in mid-September to now +57 at 74/17. Sanders has continued to become more popular too, going from 56/20 to 62/20.
Clinton is really dominating with several key groups in Iowa. Among seniors she’s up 74/13 and with women she’s up 61/21. She leads across the board with the various constituencies we track but it is tighter with younger voters (43/40), men (51/31), and voters who identify themselves as ‘very liberal’ (48/30).
“Iowa was really tightening up in the Democratic polls when Joe Biden was taking support from Clinton,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But now she’s back to dominating the Democratic field in the wake of her strong debate performance and testimony at the Benghazi hearing.”
Just 9 percent of PPP’s Democratic respondents said they were undecided, which would seem to give Sanders and O’Malley an impossible mountain to climb. But “usual Democratic primary” voters may or may not take two hours out of their busy lives to come to a precinct caucus on a February evening. Caucusing is much more time-consuming than casting a ballot in a primary election.