A new poll is in the field testing numerous statements designed to convince Iowa Democrats to caucus for Bernie Sanders rather than for Hillary Clinton. I received the call last night and enclose my notes below. If you were a respondent for the same survey and can provide additional details, please post a comment in this thread or contact me via e-mail (the address is near the lower right corner of this page).

My best guess is that an outside group wanting to boost Sanders commissioned the poll. The questionnaire did not include any negative statements about the senator from Vermont. If the Sanders campaign were designing a poll like this, I think they would have tested a few arguments against supporting the candidate, to identify his possible weak points. An outside group planning to produce direct mail or paid advertising to influence Iowa Democrats wouldn’t need that information. They would only be interested in the best way to discourage people from caucusing for Clinton and/or encourage them to caucus for Sanders.

Although Sanders doesn’t have a super-PAC promoting his campaign, progressive advocacy groups that want him to become president may make independent expenditures supporting him. Note that the survey asked respondents whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the environmental group Friends of the Earth; no other non-profit organizations were mentioned in the questionnaire. Friends of the Earth endorsed Sanders this summer and would presumably be interested in knowing how well they are known/liked among early state Democrats.

It’s also possible that a conservative organization would commission a poll like this, hoping to hurt Clinton in the early nominating states.

Call received from phone number 570-624-0221 on Monday evening, October 19. The live interviewer asked for me by name, suggesting that they are working from a list of registered Iowa Democrats or Democrats known to have participated in past Iowa caucuses.

Are you speaking to me on a landline or cell phone?

Are you registered to vote?

Iowa caucuses are happening on February 1, I know it’s a long way off etc., but how likely are you to participate in the Iowa caucuses (definitely, somewhat likely, etc.)

Do you think things in the country are generally going in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

What do you think is the biggest problem facing the country right now? Open-ended question, didn’t list issues such as economy, etc. When I asked whether I have to say just one thing, or could I list more than one problem, caller said that’s what everyone says but she wants me to say what I think is the one biggest problem.

I’m going to list a number of people, please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. Options given for all were very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable, or no opinion. They were listed in this order.
Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Joe Biden
Wall Street banks
Bernie Sanders
Citizens United (was not identified as a Supreme Court ruling–caller just said Citizens United)
Bill Clinton
Friends of the Earth

If the Iowa caucuses were tonight, whom would you support? Democratic candidates were listed (Clinton, Sanders, O’Malley, Chafee, Webb) without Biden. I said undecided, was asked which way I am leaning.

Then caller asked whom I would support in the Iowa caucuses again, this time listing Biden along with the declared Democratic candidates.

Who would be your second choice?

Caller read some statements about Biden: he’s a strong leader, a proven leader, has led efforts to boost manufacturing, job training, the economy, has helped promote President Obama’s policies, etc. Do you find this a very convincing argument to support Biden, somewhat convincing, not very convincing, or not convincing at all?

Next, some statements about Sanders: he’s an honest leader with courage to do what’s right, the son of immigrants, was not raised in a wealthy family, has always fought for the middle class, fairness. Again asked if this argument was very convincing, etc.

Next, some statements about Hillary Clinton: she’s devoted her life to public service, worked for Children’s Defense Fund after law school, has fought for middle class, has experience, etc. Again asked if this argument was very convincing, etc.

Asked caucus preference question again, first listing declared Democratic candidates without Biden, then listing Democratic candidates including Biden.

I’m going to read some statements about a candidate’s positions, and on a 1 to 10 scale, tell me whether they would make you more likely to support that candidate. 1 is would not make you support that candidate, 10 is very good argument for supporting that candidate.

Would make big corporations and the wealthy pay their fair share

Supports Medicare for All single-payer health care

Wants to make college more affordable, lowering interest rates on student loans, etc.

Works to improve veterans’ health care

Has offered a real plan to combat climate change

Has been a mayor, a member of Congress, and a senator

Would overturn Citizens United

Supports a $15/hour minimum wage

Opposes trade policies of last 20 years (I think something was said about sending jobs overseas)

Has raised most money for campaign through small contributions

Supports equal pay for women

Would reduce income inequality

Wants to cut wasteful military spending

Voted against ethanol subsidies

Now reading a list of statements. For each, caller asked how convincing it was as a reason to support Bernie Sanders.

Statement about Bernie battling Wall Street, big banks, opposed bailout.

Bernie on the system being rigged for people at the top, who have most of the wealth

Bernie has real plan to fight climate change, included some details

Our democracy is threatened by people like the Koch brothers and Citizens United

Bernie has a proven record of getting things done; in a Republican-controlled Congress he got more amendments passed than anyone else, gave some examples of legislative accomplishments

The unemployment crisis is a national tragedy; included some facts about unemployment and Sanders proposals to put people to work (e.g. on infrastructure)

Has been a consistent progressive, opposed the Iraq War, bailouts of big banks, the Keystone XL pipeline, has opposed all the bad trade deals of the last 20 years

Of the above statements, what’s the most convincing reason to support Bernie Sanders?

Now caller asked ballot test again: if Iowa caucuses were tonight, which candidate would I support (Democratic candidates listed without Biden)

Now caller read a bunch of statements about Hillary Clinton (some of these were long and seemed repetitive/similar to one another). For each, would it likely affect my decision on which candidate to support, or no change. UPDATE: As Julie Stauch mentioned in the comments, most of these negative statements about Clinton were followed by positive statements about Sanders.

Clinton has made mistakes, she is too close to Wall Street, represented Wall Street, supported bailout

Too often Clinton takes politically convenient positions, changes them later; Bernie Sanders has been a consistent principled leader

Hillary Clinton was on the wrong side of many issues; has supported bad trade deals, war in Iraq, offshore drilling, fracking

Another statement about Clinton being too close to Wall Street; special interests including big banks are funding her campaign. Sanders has no super-PAC supporting him.

Final group of questions for statistical purposes:

Did you watch or listen to last week’s Democratic debate?

Do you consider yourself very conservative, somewhat conservative, moderate, liberal, or very liberal?

What is the highest level of education you have completed?

Are you a member of a labor union?

race (white, African-American, Asian etc.)

Do you consider yourself of Latino origin?

What is your year of birth?

End of call.

Photo credit: Greg Hauenstein. View his work on Flickr or at his website.