That’s not a rhetorical question. I really want to know: why would anyone believe Donald Trump could be elected president?

Earlier this week, I was surprised to see Trump leading among Public Policy Polling’s Iowa Republican respondents who are “more concerned with having the candidate who has the best chance of beating a Democrat in the general election.” But that’s not quite the same as asking voters which candidate they believe has the best chance of winning the general election.

When CNN/ORC released a new poll of Iowa Republicans (full results here), the toplines didn’t surprise me:

But get a load of this:

Trump tops the field with 22% and is the candidate seen as best able to handle top issues including the economy, illegal immigration and terrorism. He’s most cited as the one with the best chance of winning the general election, and, by a wide margin, as the candidate most likely to change the way things work in Washington.

Trying to put myself in the mindset of a likely Republican caucus-goer, I understand why 37 percent of the CNN/ORC poll respondents accept the myth that someone who has been successful in business would be the best candidate for the economy.

Given how popular Representative Steve King is among the Iowa GOP base, I understand why 35 percent of respondents think the candidate who has said the most offensive things about Mexicans would best handle illegal immigration.

As for 21 percent of respondents saying Trump would be the best person to handle terrorism, I don’t really get it, but maybe that stems from viewing him as a straight talker.

It makes perfect sense that 44 percent would name Trump as “most likely to change the way things work in Washington.” He’s the only candidate not raising outside cash. He bashes lobbyists and mocks his rivals as “puppets.” The D.C. establishment is terrified of what Trump is doing to the Republican brand.

But I can’t comprehend how 22 percent of respondents would say this clown “has the best chance of winning in the general election next November.” On that question, 16 percent named Jeb Bush, 11 percent named Scott Walker, and only 9 percent named Marco Rubio, widely hailed by pundits as the most electable candidate in the field. Way down the list, 3 percent named John Kasich, the one who would worry me most.

Barack Obama won 332 electoral votes in 2012. You only need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. So next year’s Republican nominee will need to flip multiple states Obama carried twice.

What blue state could Trump put into play against the likely Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton?

The “gender gap” has been a reliable feature of American elections since the 1980s. Obama widened that gap to 18 percent in 2012. Next year’s nominee will need to do better among women to win the key swing states where Romney fell short. Could any Republican be more alienating to women than Trump? Based on what I’ve heard from Iowa Republicans, he doesn’t make a good impression on women in a retail politics setting either.

Poor performance among Latino voters has hurt Republican candidates in recent presidential elections. According to a study that came out last month,

Thanks to changing demographics, the conventional math that once said the GOP would need to win a minimum of 40% of the Latino electorate no longer holds.

Now, data suggests that Republicans will need as much as 47% of Latino voters — nearly twice the share that Mitt Romney is believed to have captured in 2012. […]

“It’s very, very, very basic: Every single year, you need a little bit more of the Latino vote,” said Matt Barreto,  UCLA political science professor and co-founder of the polling firm Latino Decisions. “It’s just math.”

The research is based on demographic changes and voter preferences emerging at a time when older, white voters who have powered Republican nominees are fading. The growing Latino electorate is expected to surpass 10% of all voters in 2016, and younger white voters are trending toward Democrats. […]

The last Republican nominee to hit the 40% threshold was George W. Bush in 2004, who was popular with Latino voters. He went on to win the White House with 58% of the white vote, at a time when Latinos were 7% of overall voters.

Trump describing Mexican immigrants as rapists will probably hurt Republicans next year, no matter who becomes the presidential nominee. But imagine how poorly the GOP would perform among Latino voters with Trump at the top of the ballot.

Even when Trump isn’t trying to be offensive, he can’t help himself. From his rally in Michigan on August 11.

Trump: “I’m leading in the Hispanic vote.” (CHEERS) “I’m also leading in the regular vote.” (CHEERS)

In this thread, please explain to me how anyone sees a path for Trump to win the general election.