New poll of Iowa Democrats testing messages about Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders

This evening I was a respondent for a lengthy poll testing messages about Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. I assume the Clinton campaign commissioned this survey. If not her campaign, then some allied group. Most of the questions seemed geared toward determining what is driving Iowa Democrats toward or away from the front-runner and the senator from Vermont, who has claimed the progressive alternative niche in the presidential race. Several of the questions drew from rhetoric Clinton uses in her stump speech.

The caller identified herself as representing “National Data Collection.” She was calling from 586-200-0157, the same number used for a different message-testing phone poll I received in early March.

I almost feel sorry for these pollsters having to repeat so many questions when they call my house. My notes are after the jump. I’ve been a respondent for many polls over the years, but this one included a device that was new to me.

Call received the evening of July 20, from phone number 586-200-0157. The caller asked for me by name, indicating that they are likely working from list of registered Iowa voters.

Are you at least 18 years old and registered to vote at this address?

When it comes to the Iowa caucuses, do you usually caucus with Democrats, with Republicans, or do you wait until the general election to vote?

How likely are you to participate in the 2016 Iowa caucuses? (almost certain, very likely etc.)

I’m going to read some names. Can you tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion about these people, or if you don’t know?

Barack Obama

Lincoln Chafee

Bill Clinton

Joe Biden (pronounced like “bidden”)

Jim Webb

Hillary Clinton

Martin O’Malley

Bernie Sanders

If the Iowa caucuses were today, who would you caucus for? Choices given: Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders

I said I was undecided. The follow-up questions:

Regarding Hillary Clinton, would you say there is a fair chance you might caucus for her, a small chance, a very slight chance, or no chance at all that you would caucus for her?

Regarding Bernie Sanders, would you say there is a fair chance you might caucus for him, a small chance, a very slight chance, or no chance at all that you would caucus for him?

Now came the trick that I’d never heard before in a poll. The caller said I would be asked more detailed questions about two candidates. Which two would be determined by the month of my birth. So, in which month was I born? I said March. She starts asking me questions about Clinton and Sanders. At one point I interrupted to ask her whether people born in other months were getting asked about different candidates, or also about Clinton and Sanders. Silence on the other end of the line. I don’t believe for one second that any respondent for this poll was asked about any other pair of candidates.

UPDATE: Mark Blumenthal, otherwise known as the “Mystery Pollster,” believes that this trick was “A ruse to convince you the selection of Clinton and Sanders was truly random. I’d bet a lot it wasn’t.”

Back to the questionnaire. After I gave my birth month, she said she would read a list of statements and asked me to say whether they applied much more to Hillary Clinton, somewhat more to Hillary Clinton, somewhat more to Bernie Sanders, much more to Bernie Sanders, applies to both of them, or applies to neither of them.

Someone you can count on to get things done

Can win a general election against a Republican

Is a strong leader

Understands how to keep the economy moving and create jobs

Will hold Wall Street accountable

Will fight for people like you

Is in touch with the lives of everyday Americans

Is honest

I’m going to read three statements. Which worries you the most about Hillary Clinton?

1. I don’t agree with her on the issues

2. There will always be another scandal coming

3. I’m never sure if she’s saying what she really believes

Now the caller reads three statements about Bernie Sanders. Which of them worries me the most:

1. I don’t agree with him on the issues

2. He will lose the general election to a Republican

3. He will never be able to get the things done that he is promising

Thinking about the news you have heard about Hillary Clinton, is it mostly negative, mostly positive, or a mix of both?

Thinking about the news you have heard about Bernie Sanders, is it mostly negative, mostly positive, or a mix of both?

Thinking about the possibility of electing Hillary Clinton as the first woman president, which statement is closer to your view?

First option was something like: Electing Hillary Clinton will bring a woman’s perspective and a new focus on issues affecting families and children.

Second option was something like: Electing Hillary Clinton will make history, breaking the glass ceiling and showing our daughters and granddaughters that they can be anything they want to be.

Next the caller reads me some information about Hillary Clinton. Some of these were a bit wordy, but here was the gist:

She wants to restore the basic bargain that if you work hard and play by the rules, you should be able to do well.

She wants to encourage companies to share profits with their employees so everyone can benefit.

She wants to end tax loopholes for hedge fund managers and provide tax breaks for families instead.

She wants to reduce the cost of college and help everyone refinance their student loans.

She wants to help small businesses start and succeed.

Hillary Clinton says the deck has been stacked for those at the top for too long.

Now, are you much more likely to support Hillary Clinton, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, much less likely to support her, or no difference?

Open-ended question: what is the most appealing thing you’ve heard about Hillary Clinton? I asked whether it had to be something she said, or could it be anything I had heard. She said anything. After I gave one answer, she prompted me to say what was the next most appealing thing I had heard about Clinton.

Then she repeated the ballot test:

If the Iowa caucuses were today, who would you caucus for? Choices given: Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders

Next, the caller read some information about Bernie Sanders. My best paraphrase:

He thinks America should belong to all the people, not just billionaires.

He wants to reduce the income gap, inequality.

He wants to break up the big banks.

He wants to end tax breaks for shipping jobs overseas.

He supports $1 trillion in infrastructure investments.

He’s against the TPP trade agreement.

He will stop the Keystone XL pipeline.

Now, are you much more likely to support Bernie Sanders, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, much less likely to support him, or no difference?

At this point I was waiting for the open-ended question about the most appealing thing I’d heard about Sanders, but there wasn’t one. Instead, the caller went straight to another ballot test:

If the Iowa caucuses were today, who would you caucus for? Choices given: Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders

Now the caller said she would read me some policies Hillary Clinton has proposed. She asked me to rate them on a 1 to 7 scale, with 7 meaning it makes me much more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton and 1 meaning it makes me not at all more likely to vote for her.

She believes climate change is a threat to our health and environment, she supports clean energy and cracking down on polluters

She supports quality preschool for every four-year-old and would double funding for Head Start

She wants to crack down on risky Wall Street behavior to prevent another financial crisis

She wants to incentivize companies to share profits with their employees

She would allow people to refinance their student loans at current rates

She would make raising wages her first priority, creating jobs and breaking down barriers, supporting fair pay for hard work

She will take on the Republicans in Congress and won’t back down

She will make small businesses succeed by cutting red tape, offering tax relief and simplification

She would give hard-working families a tax cut and make those at the top pay their fair share

She would protect Planned Parenthood funding, access to health care and birth control for women

She is for equal pay for women

She is for full equality for gay and lesbian Americans and families and for ending discrimination in housing, employment, and all aspects of our law

Again repeats the ballot test:

If the Iowa caucuses were today, who would you caucus for? Choices given: Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders

Now she’s going to read some qualities that describe a president. For each one, tell me whether it applies much more to Clinton, somewhat more to Clinton, somewhat more to Sanders, much more to Sanders, applies to both, or applies to neither.

Is in touch with the lives of everyday Americans

Understands how to keep the economy moving and create jobs

Will fight for people like you

What bothers you most about the Republican candidates for president?

Something about their stance on immigration

They support more tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations

They deny climate change is real and don’t want to do anything about it

They oppose equal pay for women

They want to cut education funding

They oppose legalizing gay marriage

They want to cut Medicare and Social Security

The caller pressed me to choose one of the above. I asked if I could choose all of the above, but she pushed me to select one. Then she asked what bothers me the second most about the Republican candidates for president, from the same list of policies.

Next, the statistical questions.

Wanted to confirm my year of birth

highest level of education completed

whether I have children

whether my children are under age 18

whether I have any daughters (something I don’t recall being asked in a poll before)

marital status

Do I consider myself moderate, conservative, or liberal? When I said liberal, she asked very or somewhat liberal?

ethnicity/race

Do you own a cell phone?

Do you primarily use your landline to make calls, mostly use your cell phone, or use them both about the same amount?

Double-checks my name and phone number.

End of call.  

About the Author(s)

desmoinesdem

  • patience of Job

    Wow, that’s some patience. I usually hang up as soon as the ambient room noise on the other end of the line indicates to me the call is coming from a call center.

  • The trick question...

    They were doing a split sample, where you divide the group of people polled by an arbitrary factor and then ask each group a specific set of questions. It’s actually a pretty common technique, although the use of birth month is new to me. More typically when you split sample it’s based upon the person calling alternating between two different sets. If they asked the last person set A, then the next person gets asked set B.

    Maybe this poll was doing more than two samples, hence the use of the birth month?

    • do you think

      that some group of respondents was asked about a different pair of candidates (Hillary Clinton and one of the others)? Seems unlikely they would be testing messages about Webb or O’Malley, who haven’t registered yet in Iowa polls.

      Or are you saying the other part of the sample was probably asked to rate different statements about Clinton and Sanders?

  • just a quess

    The fact that they didn’t go into more Bernie persuasion after the message pitch near the end makes me wonder if it is someone other than Clinton.

    Might also have been a mistake by the person on the phone.

  • Fascinating

    I also got that call, and I thought it was a pretty fascinating survey.  Like you, I would bet good money the birth month question was a red herring (except, perhaps, they threw O’Malley in periodically).  It certainly seemed likely to be a Clinton-Sanders match-up poll regardless.

    What I found interesting, however, is that while it often felt like a push-poll (and it was far too detailed to be a top-line media poll), I could not detect any real slant to it.  The positive statements and positions were almost verbatim from the actual campaigns; the negatives seemed pretty balanced. It was equally plausible to me that it was a Clinton/pro-Clinton commissioned poll, and a Sanders/pro-Sanders commissioned poll (other than the cost of a poll like that which tilts Clinton).

    And that had to be the highest number of repetitions of the ballot test question I’ve ever heard in a survey.

    My heavily-accented surveyor couldn’t pronounce Chafee correctly. Not that he was terribly relevant.  

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