Is the latest Hillary Clinton message-testing poll for men only? (updated)

A new poll is in the field testing messages about Hillary Clinton with Iowa Democrats. The live-interviewer survey is coming from a Michigan-based phone number (586-200-0081). The caller will not say who paid for the survey, only that he or she represents “the National Data Collection Firm.” The caller asks respondents for their views on several prospective Democratic presidential candidates and various public-policy issues, then tests the respondent’s agreement with numerous statements about Clinton’s record and asks whether certain statements would make you more or less likely to vote for Clinton.

John Deeth took the call and posted his account here. My notes on the same survey are after the jump. Some New Hampshire residents are getting similar calls, but from a different phone number.

Although I don’t know who paid for this survey, the questionnaire suggests to me that it came from a group supporting Clinton’s presidential aspirations, not from a rival Democratic camp. There appears to be a special interest in gauging support for Senator Elizabeth Warren and her views on the system being rigged in favor of big banks and wealthy interests.

I also have a hunch, as yet unconfirmed, that the contact universe for this survey may consist only of men who are registered Democrats and have participated in past Iowa Democratic caucuses. I have not yet been able to find a woman who received the call, despite asking quite a few likely suspects (including some who took part in the previous message-testing poll about Clinton in Iowa). The caller asks for a specific voter by name, and so far I have only heard of men being targeted. When I picked up our landline, the caller asked to speak to Mr. desmoinesdem about “important issues in Iowa.” I said he was not available but that I would be happy to answer the questions. The caller insisted that they are supposed to talk with certain people and again asked for my husband. I said, “Are you sure I’m not on your list too?” and gave my name–I’ll bet that’s a new one for that poll-taker! He politely said he would call later for Mr. desmoinesdem. True to his word, he called back in a few hours, and my husband put the phone on speaker so I could take notes. The survey takes about 15-20 minutes.

UPDATE: Thanks to crowd-sourcing, I can confirm that women as well as men are in the respondent pool for this survey.

Toward the end of the survey, the caller asks whether the respondent supported John Edwards, Hillary Clinton, or Barack Obama in the 2008 caucuses (no other options given). This question was not preceded by any question about whether the individual caucused that year, suggesting to me that the pollster drew up the sample from a list of Iowa Democrats who did caucus in 2008.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I would particularly like to hear from Bleeding Heartland readers (male or female) who received the same call.

UPDATE: Bleeding Heartland user DCCyclone notes in the comments, “It’s definitely a high-priced survey for a campaign, party, or superpac or similarly campaign-focused interest group.  That the caller asked for a voter by name proves that, because only high-priced internal surveys sample that way.” I tend to agree that Ready for Hillary is the most likely suspect.

Notes from a survey received on February 3; caller from phone number 586-200-0081 identified source as “National Data Collection Firm.” Asked to speak to specific person in household about “important issues in Iowa.” Assured respondent that this is not a sales call, and you won’t receive any follow-up calls.

Are you at least 18 years of age? Are you registered to vote?

Do you usually caucus with Democrats, with Republicans, or do you wait for the general election to vote?

How likely are you to caucus in the next Iowa Democratic caucuses (almost certain, very likely, not likely etc.)

What in your opinion is the most important problem facing the country? (open ended question, no list of issues provided–caller followed up asking what specifically about the named issue was important to respondent)

What do you think is the next most important issue? (again, open-ended question including follow-up about what aspect of that issue is important to respondent)

I’m going to read some names. For each person, tell me if your view is very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable, or if you haven’t heard of the person. (names were read in the following order)

Barack Obama

Tom Vilsack

Joe Biden

Hillary Clinton

Martin O’Malley

Bill Clinton

Bernie Sanders

Jim Webb

Elizabeth Warren

If the Iowa caucuses were held soon, who would be your first preference among Biden, Hillary Clinton, O’Malley, Sanders, Webb, and Warren? Who would be your second preference?

What is the first word or phrase that comes to your mind about Hillary Clinton?

Caller reads several statements about Elizabeth Warren, including some biographical background and her views on deregulation and banks buying control of Congress to keep the game rigged.

Caller asks again for respondent’s first preference in the Iowa caucuses.

How would you rate your state’s economy: excellent, good, fair, or poor?

What about the U.S. economy: do you see it getting better or worse, or staying the same?

What about your financial situation: are you getting ahead, staying the same, or falling behind?

What would you say is the biggest source of your financial stress? (open-ended question, no list provided)

What do you think is the bigger obstacle to Americans getting ahead? Caller reads two statements–one is about the failure to invest enough in education, infrastructure, etc; the other is about the deck being stacked against average Americans because big business buys influence. Respondent asked which statement he agrees with more.

I’m going to read a list of statements, and you tell me whether you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat, disagree strongly.

Something about the economy getting better.

Prices are too high–I can’t keep up with getting essentials like food and gas.

The economy is still rigged to protect people at the top.

(statement I missed)

Caller reads pairs of statements, asks which the respondent agrees with more.

Something about we need an experienced leader who will bring people together to find solutions; and something about we need a skillful fighter who will hold corporate interests accountable and level the playing field.

What do you think is most important for the economy? Someone who will bring stability to Washington and lead with a steady hand, or someone who will shake up Washington and make big changes?

What worries you more? Idea that someone can’t change Washington, or someone who will try to do too much, leading to gridlock?

Do you approve of Hillary Clinton’s work as Secretary of State?

I’m going to read a list of qualities–let me know if you think these describe Hillary Clinton well, using a 1-7 scale.

will work to make the economy fair

brings new ideas to the table

will fight for people like you

knows when to work together and when to stand her ground

will help every American reach their potential

can bring people together to find common ground

Caller reads statements about Hillary Clinton’s record:

As secretary of state, she was a forceful champion for human rights, women, children, and LGBT around the world.

She has been driven by wanting to help children; after graduating from Yale Law School she went to work for the Children’s Defense Fund.

As a U.S. senator for New York, she helped get health care for first responders who had been at Ground Zero on 9/11.

She grew up in a middle-class home, with values of faith, community, and family. Her father served in the Navy and owned a small business; her mother put herself through high school cleaning homes. Hillary Clinton learned value of hard work from parents.

She worked to protect New York jobs: fought China’s discriminatory tariffs against Corning.

What was the most important thing you learned about Hillary Clinton?

I’m going to read a list of statements. Please tell me if they make you more or less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton.

She knows we need to grow the economy; we need a 21st century economy focused on small businesses, which are the engine for job growth. We need to cut red tape and focus on an economy that can lift all Americans.

We need to put the future of the average American at the center of our policies. Clinton is a tenacious fighter.

We can’t let Washington gridlock hold back our progress. She knows how to find common ground and when to stand her ground. We can trust her not to back down.

What best describes you: middle class or working class? (I thought it was strange that they did not give other options such as lower or upper middle class, high-income etc.)

Finally, list of questions for statistical purposes.

What was your birth year?

Highest level of education completed?

Do you have children living with you at home?

Are you married/single/widowed etc.?

Are you a member of a union or workplace association?

Do you live in a city, a suburb close to a city, or a rural area?

Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

In the 2008 Iowa caucuses, did you support John Edwards, Hillary Clinton, or Barack Obama? (no other options given)

Does your family participate in farming or ranching?

Do you consider yourself a liberal, a moderate, or conservative?

Do you consider yourself a progressive?

Do you own a cell phone?

Just confirming, your name is [Mr. desmoinesdem] and your phone number is [gives our landline number].

Thanks for participating. End of call.

About the Author(s)

desmoinesdem

  • You have the best name ever...

    …”Mrs. desmoinesdem.”

    Do people pronounce it right?

    Sorry, couldn’t resist playing off your own blog post characterization of the survey sampling.

    I’d be surprised if the survey was men-only, I’ve never heard of a campaign or party pollster doing that.  There’s not really any justification for it, men aren’t a politically or culturally segregated group, and there isn’t enough of a gender gap in voting behavior to justify it.

    Since your information is only anecdotal, I would guess the survey is a random sample of both men and women, not just men, and it’s by mere chance that you haven’t learned of any female respondents.

    It’s definitely a high-priced survey for a campaign, party, or superpac or similarly campaign-focused interest group.  That the caller asked for a voter by name proves that, because only high-priced internal surveys sample that way.  I’ve gotten calls like that before once in awhile, the last time in October 2012 when Garin Hart surveyed me with Priorities USA as their client for a Virginia Presidential election survey.

    • what if

      previous polling suggested that Hillary is already running stronger among Iowa Democratic women than among men? Why not spend money testing specific messages among men who are likely to caucus in 2016?

  • Sounds identical

    Your account is more detailed – I was trying to both respond and take notes at the same time – but sounds identical, including the phone number. (Googling the number gave me no real info other than people complaining about getting telemarketing calls from it)

    Only difference is name rotation, and this just confirms that they are rotating. I was surprised to get Bill followed by Hillary together, but that must have been random.

    I also think the fact that the two calls we’ve confirmed were both to men was random. The caller was almost certainly just looking at the computer screen for her current call, directed to speak only to that person, and not able to to see if the spouse was also “on the list.” (Call centers are my wife’s career)

    • probably yes

      they are calling both genders, but the last time a message-testing poll on Hillary was in the field it didn’t take me long to find a bunch of women who had been called.  

  • Just finished responding

    They called for my college-aged son (who of course is at college) and surprised me when they asked me if I would like to participate.  They did not check my name against a list before extending the invitation (my son and I have different names).  I had just finished reading your post, so as the call progressed, I pretty much knew what to expect.

    One of my other sons listened in on the call for fun. The caller pronounced Biden as “Bidden” and he mangled Massachusetts, so we had a private chuckle that this was someone who didn’t know/talk politics. But my son found it interesting, especially since he had heard me yell at a push-poller on speakerphone last summer, and realized the difference between the two calls. (He’s also taking AP Statistics this year, so polling is interesting.)

    At the end, they only requested my first name, and confirmed the telephone number.

    • interesting

      I wonder whether they get less picky about interviewing the “right” person later in the week. The response rate for telephone polls is so low now.

Comments