Mid-week open thread: 2018 IA-Gov scenarios edition

All topics are welcome in this open thread. I’d like to hear from Bleeding Heartland readers about the next race for Iowa governor. Winning that election needs to be a top priority for Iowa Democrats.

I remain 100 percent convinced that Terry Branstad will not serve out his entire sixth term. By the end of 2015, he will have set a record as the longest-serving governor in U.S. history. He is committed to “grooming” Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds to be the next governor. But Reynolds was almost unknown when Branstad selected her as his running mate. She had only two years of experience in the state legislature, all of it in the Iowa Senate minority. Before that, she had a long tenure as the Clarke County treasurer, a job that doesn’t allow politicians to build up a profile outside their home county.

Since Reynolds has no constituency in the Republican base, I find it hard to imagine she could win the nomination for governor campaigning from her current job. However, if she has a year or more under her belt as governor by the spring of 2018, she might have a fighting chance in the GOP primary. Even then, I don’t think other Republicans would give her a pass. Plenty of people have ambitions to succeed Branstad. I’ll be surprised if Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey doesn’t run for governor during the next cycle.

On the Democratic side, several state lawmakers could be credible candidates for governor. Iowa Senate President Pam Jochum considered it this past cycle but opted out for family reasons. I hope Jochum will take the plunge in 2018, as she would be a great candidate and a fantastic governor. State Senators Janet Petersen and Rob Hogg would also be excellent leaders and will probably also give this race a look.

UPDATE: Two-time candidate for secretary of state Jake Porter is considering a gubernatorial bid on the Libertarian ticket and sees both outgoing Secretary of State Matt Schultz and newly-elected Secretary of State Paul Pate as likely Republican candidates. Pate sought the GOP nomination for governor in 1998 after one term in the secretary of state’s office, so he could easily do that again. I find it hard to believe that the Madison County attorney position will give Schultz a good launching pad for a gubernatorial campaign, but anything is possible.

Porter also mentioned State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald as a possible Democratic candidate. Fitzgerald considered running for governor in 2013.

SECOND UPDATE: Lots of names being floated in the comments: Bob Vander Plaats, Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, State Representative Peter Cownie, and State Senator Amy Sinclair on the Republican side; newly elected State Senator Chaz Allen or State Representative Nancy Dunkel on the Democratic side.

Erin Murphy, who covers Iowa politics for Lee Enterprises newspapers, has predicted a matchup between Jochum and Reynolds in 2018. I like Jochum’s odds there, a lot.

Associated Press reporter Ryan Foley reports that Republican strategists are “keeping a close eye” on Chaz Allen. I wonder whether that may be wishful thinking on their part, as they appear to have no chance of winning Iowa Senate district 15 as long as Allen is around. I think 2018 would be a little early for him to run for governor.

I should also mention that incoming U.S. Senator Joni Ernst will probably go all-in for Reynolds in the 2018 primary. Reynolds helped to recruit Ernst for the Iowa Senate and later for the U.S. Senate race.

THIRD UPDATE: Some Iowa politics-watchers expect State Senator Liz Mathis to run for governor in 2018. I don’t think she would run against Petersen or Jochum in a primary, though, and I consider either of them more likely to run than Mathis.

About the Author(s)

desmoinesdem

  • BVP

    BVP will run for it again in 2018.  I just don’t see his ego not letting him go for it and without Branstad on the ballot he might see a path.  

    • that will be entertaining

      He’ll be way past his sell-by date. I guess “Common Core” will be his rallying cry after they fail to unseat the three Iowa Supreme Court justices up for retention in 2016.

  • Governor

    I agree Branstad will depart long before his term is over. But there will be a whole host of GOPers looking to succeed him in addition to Northey: Kraig Paulsen? Pete Cownie? Amy Sinclair ?  No way KR gets a free pass. In the Dem side, Hogg will be running against Grassley in 2016, and assuming he is not successful, I’m not sure how he would fare in a race for gov in 2018. I hope JP runs. I think maybe Pam Jochum’s time may have come and gone. Fred Hubbell may also have missed his chance if he ever had any interest. And since this is an open thread, how about Frank Cownie for Congress 03?  Could take Polk big, and render the rest of the district immaterial.  

    • Another name?

      Chaz Allen, newly minted State Senator from Newton. A former Mayor. Economic Development guy. Nice resume. Fresh face.

    • not sure

      how well Frank Cownie would do in the suburbs of Des Moines.

      We definitely need a candidate who can run up the score in Polk County. That’s the only path.

      • Frank

        I know the burbs and Des Moines don’t get along, but one argument in his favor might be the burbs would want a metro guy familiar with metro needs in there as opposed to someone else from the rural area. On the flipside, He’s been mayor a long time, and the relationship between the city and the burbs hasn’t improved much. And of course the burbs are all Republican, and he’s a Democrat.

  • If Hogg runs...

    Then Liz Bennett could move up to the Senate and perhaps our party could recruit a black candidate to run in 65.  Wellington Heights is completely encased by this district and is about 30% black.  This would benefit the party greatly as it would give blacks a reason to turn out in a midterm election.  Correct me if I’m wrong, but wouldn’t this also be a historic first for the state?

  • Possibilities

    Northey is a more likeable than Matt Schultz, that is obvious LOL.  Pate would like to be Governor, but does he challenge KR and then end up going after the same wing of the party?  

    I don’t see Northey running unless Reynolds gets out of the race all together.  Schultz is damaged goods amongst true fiscal hawks (on all sides of the aisle.)  Pate has some of that same fiscal baggage, but it wasn’t as blatant and obvious as what Schultz was doing.  Rod Roberts,

    There are probably a couple of GOP legislators that would give it a go if the field opened up a bit.  

    I like Peterson or Jochum.  Nancy Dunkel…..

    Off topic:  Would Bruce Braley run for Attorney General when Tom Miller retires?  I assume not, but the crazy idea popped in my head.  

  • andy mcguire

    said about IA-3 too – but saying it about this thread.  i think Andy McGuire is going to run for something (Governor/Congress).  Not just cause i think she’d be a great candidate but i hear her name a lot from different folks popping up.    

  • Andy

    AMcG is always thinking about running, but never quite pulls the trigger. Maybe 2016 will be different.  

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