We won’t know the final early voting numbers until the Iowa elections are certified a few weeks from now, but after the jump I’ve posted absentee ballot figures based on the final daily update from the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office. Click here for previous tables going back to September 22.
As of yesterday, more than 455,000 Iowans had already returned early ballots to county auditors, a huge increase on total early voting in the 2010 midterm election. Registered Democrats have returned about 8,000 more ballots statewide than Republicans have. If Democrats identified and mobilized more independents to vote early (as happened in 2012), Bruce Braley could go into election day tens of thousands of votes ahead of Joni Ernst. Iowa Republicans typically perform better on election day than Democrats; how much better is open for debate, since the GOP encouraged many more people to vote early this year who previously voted on election day.
Statewide, about 33,000 Democrats, 19,000 Republicans, and 23,000 no-party voters had requested absentee ballots that county auditors had not received as of yesterday. Not every unreturned ballot represents an Iowan who will not vote. Some people mailed ballots that hadn’t reached county auditors by yesterday, but those will still count if they either arrive today or arrive before next Monday with a postmark on or before November 3. Other people will hand-deliver ballots to the county auditors today; those will be counted as long as they arrive by 9 pm.
While canvassing the last few days, I’ve met a bunch of people who plan to “surrender” their absentee ballots at the regular polling place today, then vote with a regular ballot.
Absentee ballots requested by Iowa voters as of November 3, 2014
| Congressional district | Democrats | Republicans | no-party voters | Libertarian | Iowa Green | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-01 | 57,299 | 44,153 | 33,791 | 175 | 72 | 135,490 |
| IA-02 | 63,376 | 45,497 | 33,590 | 191 | 108 | 142,762 |
| IA-03 | 55,035 | 49,702 | 25,604 | 169 | 69 | 130,579 |
| IA-04 | 41,138 | 54,673 | 25,567 | 110 | 41 | 121,529 |
| statewide | 216,848 | 194,025 | 118,552 | 645 | 290 | 530,360 |
Absentee ballots received by Iowa county auditors as of November 3, 2014
| Congressional district | Democrats | Republicans | no-party voters | Libertarian | Iowa Green | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-01 | 49,282 | 40,260 | 27,734 | 131 | 49 | 117,456 |
| IA-02 | 54,390 | 42,004 | 27,107 | 147 | 90 | 123,738 |
| IA-03 | 44,307 | 43,166 | 19,267 | 113 | 46 | 106,899 |
| IA-04 | 35,919 | 50,240 | 21,290 | 84 | 30 | 107,563 |
| statewide | 183,898 | 175,670 | 95,398 | 475 | 215 | 455,656 |