Every weekday through November 4, Bleeding Heartland will continue to post tables showing absentee ballots requested and returned in Iowa’s four Congressional districts. The data come from the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office. Click here for previous tables going back to September 22. For the first time since early voting started this year, Democrats lead Republicans in absentee ballot requests by fewer than 20,000.
In the 2010 midterm election, early ballots were cast by 155,421 Iowa Democrats, 136,243 Republicans, and 68,499 no-party voters. As of yesterday, 125,927 Iowa Democrats had requested an absentee ballot (81 percent of the 2010 total early Democratic vote), 106,982 Republicans had requested an absentee ballot (79 percent of the 2010 total early GOP vote), and 56,697 no-party voters had requested a ballot (83 percent of the 2010 total early vote by independents). Democrats claim that their canvassers have identified most of the no-party voters casting early ballots this year.
The new Iowa poll by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg News indicated that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Joni Ernst is slightly ahead of Democratic nominee Bruce Braley by 47 percent to 46 percent, but also found that “The Democrats’ aggressive early voting push is aiding Braley,” who leads by 56 percent to 38 percent among respondents who said they had already voted.
Absentee ballots requested by Iowa voters as of October 12, 2014
| Congressional district | Democrats | Republicans | no-party voters | Libertarian | Iowa Green | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-01 | 33,363 | 24,117 | 16,408 | 76 | 38 | 74,002 |
| IA-02 | 35,783 | 24,885 | 16,102 | 67 | 54 | 76,891 |
| IA-03 | 33,866 | 28,548 | 13,108 | 78 | 41 | 75,641 |
| IA-04 | 22,915 | 29,432 | 11,079 | 41 | 19 | 63,486 |
| statewide | 125,927 | 106,982 | 56,697 | 262 | 152 | 290,020 |
Absentee ballots received by Iowa county auditors as of October 12, 2014
| Congressional district | Democrats | Republicans | no-party voters | Libertarian | Iowa Green | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-01 | 16,643 | 11,299 | 6,290 | 32 | 12 | 34,276 |
| IA-02 | 16,981 | 12,012 | 5,714 | 24 | 21 | 34,752 |
| IA-03 | 14,776 | 12,287 | 4,478 | 23 | 14 | 31,578 |
| IA-04 | 11,563 | 13,637 | 4,371 | 10 | 7 | 29,588 |
| statewide | 59,963 | 49,235 | 20,853 | 89 | 54 | 130,194 |
5 Comments
New Rasmussen
The GOP leaning Rasmussen Poll just out this morning has Ernst 48 Braley 45.
rockm Mon 13 Oct 10:03 AM
Raz had Romney winning Iowa by 1
Of course the President won by 5 . That the GOP muddied the waters with everyone getting a VBM is now a bit clearer with the Selzer poll. We are leading already cast voters by 18 points and she expects indies to break 60-40 in favor of Braley, good news if we keep working the plan. Poor, poor Willard he is deeply hurt to this day about his loss. He says that he would be doing better than Mr. Obama , mittens you look bitter.
okoboji-mike Mon 13 Oct 11:18 AM
where did Selzer say
she expects independents to break 60-40 for Braley?
Margins of error for subsets in a poll sample are always higher than for the whole poll. So I would assume Braley is ahead among early voters but I wouldn’t take the 18-point margin as gospel.
One encouraging finding from my perspective is that 53 percent said it has been an advantage for Iowa to have one senator from each party.
desmoinesdem Mon 13 Oct 1:18 PM
I was mistaken , second thing to go
is the mind. After further review I am chilled by Selzer and her indie predictions. It was 2012 that the indies broke huge for Obama and is where I was daydreaming. FINAL ANSWER: we need the indies desperately. I also feel that Iowa Democratic Party/OFA did a great job targeting said indies.
okoboji-mike Tue 14 Oct 7:59 AM
150 people turned out to hear Mitt on Sunday night.
1200 came to hear Michelle Obama in support of Bruce Braily on Friday.
cocinero Mon 13 Oct 1:26 PM