What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This evening the Des Moines Register rolled out partial results from its first Iowa poll since forming a partnership with Bloomberg News on political coverage. The news isn’t encouraging for Democrats: State Senator Joni Ernst leads U.S. Representative Bruce Braley by 44 percent to 38 percent, outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent. CORRECTION: That’s the margin of error for each candidate’s support. The margin of error for Ernst’s lead over Braley would be larger.

I’ve posted excerpts from the Register’s coverage after the jump. The most worrying points include: Ernst has a double-digit lead among independents; her 25-point lead among men more than compensates for Braley’s 13-point lead among women; she leads among every age group (though only by 1 percent among senior citizens); Braley is not ahead in the first Congressional district, despite representing much of northeast Iowa since 2007.

Some Democrats have been grumbling this evening about the biased tone of the Register’s write-up. For instance, Jennifer Jacobs dwelled on Braley’s negatives, even though the poll showed a higher unfavorable rating for Ernst (44 percent) than for Braley (42 percent). In general, I can’t remember a Des Moines Register political reporter showing a stronger bias than Jacobs has shown toward Ernst this whole year. It’s remarkable. But that’s far from Braley’s biggest problem right now.

I expected the Braley campaign to respond that this poll is out of line with their internal numbers, or with other recent polls showing the IA-Sen race tied. But the memo from Braley’s campaign manager Sarah Benzing was much more alarming, since it accepted the Register’s numbers as a “snapshot of where this race begins” as voters start paying attention. It argued that the race was tied all summer, when “the TV spending numbers were closer to parity.” In contrast, “the Ernst campaign and its backers have spent over $500,000 more than the Braley campaign and Democratic groups on television” in the past two weeks. “Unless this disparity is equalized over the next few weeks, there is a real chance that spending by outside groups will determine the Iowa Senate race […].”

I’ve enclosed the Braley memo after the jump. There’s some happy talk about the Democratic ground game, which supposedly will deliver for Braley “as long as Democratic spending in Iowa matches the firepower that the other side is contributing to the air war.” Really, that’s your spin? News flash: Democrats won a bunch of close Senate races in 2012 despite being outspent on television. They were able to connect with voters despite that deficit. Moreover, pro-Ernst and anti-Braley spending will probably continue to surpass Democratic spending for the whole month of October. Braley’s campaign manager should not be suggesting her candidate can’t win under those circumstances.

Democrats need to hope that either Braley can turn things around in the debates, or that this poll will turn out to be one of Selzer & Co’s occasional misses (like when the Register’s Iowa poll had Terry Branstad 28 points ahead of Bob Vander Plaats a few days before he won the 2010 GOP primary by 9 points). It’s too bad the Register didn’t commission an Iowa poll shortly after the June primary, so we would all have a baseline for comparison. But Public Policy Polling has an Iowa survey in the field this weekend too, and claims Ernst is running ahead.

UPDATE: On September 28, Harstad Strategic Research released partial results from a poll conducted between September 21 and 25 for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. This poll showed Braley and Ernst tied at 42 percent each and Braley leading among independents by 40 percent to 36 percent. The survey drew respondents from the Iowa voter file rather than through the random-dialing method used by some pollsters. I’ve added the memo at the end of this post.

From Jennifer Jacobs’ main story on the Iowa poll:

Ernst leads 44 percent to 38 percent in a race that has for months been considered deadlocked. She leads nearly 4-1 with rural voters, and is up double digits with independents.

“Very interesting, and good news not just for Ernst but also for the GOP’s chances of taking the U.S. Senate,” said national political prognosticator Larry Sabato of “Sabato’s Crystal Ball.”

Just seven months ago, political analysts considered Braley almost a shoo-in for a seat held for 30 years by liberal Democrat Tom Harkin.

Still, the 6-point deficit isn’t insurmountable with 37 days left until the Nov. 4 election, political analysts say. Twelve percent of likely voters remain undecided.

Some of the vulnerabilities for Braley, a lawyer and eight-year congressman: He isn’t winning in his home district, in northeast Iowa. Two-thirds of likely voters think it’s a problem that he missed a large percentage of Veterans Affairs Committee meetings in the U.S. House. Fifty-nine percent think his role in crafting the Affordable Care Act, often called Obamacare, is a problem.

And he’s suffering badly with rural voters. Only 15 percent support him compared with 58 percent for Ernst. One potential reason: Two-thirds of likely voters who live in the country are bothered by a remark he made about Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley that’s been perceived as besmirching farmers. […]

The Iowa Poll of 546 likely voters in the 2014 general election was conducted Sept. 21-24 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Jacobs made one ridiculous comment in the same piece: “Just seven months ago, political analysts considered Braley almost a shoo-in for a seat held for 30 years by liberal Democrat Tom Harkin.” False. At best the IA-Sen race was rated “lean Democrat.” No one ever said it was a “shoo-in” for Braley.

From “Iowa Poll: 7 takeaways from the results”:

With 38 percent support, Democrat Bruce Braley is 12 points shy of a majority; Republican Joni Ernst is 6 points away.

And of poll respondents who currently side with Braley or Ernst, 31 percent say they could still be persuaded to vote for another candidate. […]

Ninety-one percent of likely voters who back Ernst, a Republican, think the nation is on the wrong track, the new Iowa Poll shows.

Those who support Braley are far more likely to think the country is headed in the right direction. Forty-eight percent of his backers believe that vs. 41 percent who say wrong track. […]

All summer, Braley criticized Ernst as someone who would hurt seniors by undermining Social Security. The Iowa Poll shows Ernst wins with every age group, although it’s just a 1-point margin with those 65 and older.

Incidentally, the Register’s Iowa poll shows a total of 5 percent going to four lesser-known candidates for Senate. Polls usually overstate support for third-party or independent candidates.

From Jennifer Jacobs’ story on “Braley VA record troubles voters”:

For Braley, 66 percent of likely voters think the fact that he missed a large percentage of U.S. House Veterans Affairs Committee meetings is a problem.

Even 40 percent of his supporters think it’s a problem. […]

Fifty-nine percent of likely voters say it’s a problem that Braley has claimed to be a part of final negotiations in crafting the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. […]

Fifty-six percent of likely voters think it’s a problem that Ernst has discussed privatizing Social Security as an option to ensure its solvency. […]

Fifty-five percent of likely voters and 37 percent of those voting for Braley consider it a problem that he questioned whether Grassley, a Republican, is qualified to chair the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee since he’s a farmer and not a lawyer.

M E M O R A N D U M

To: Interested Parties

Fr: Sarah Benzing, Campaign Manager, Braley for Iowa

RE: Iowa Poll Results Show Sudden GOP Money Wave Could Swamp Senate Race

Date: September 27, 2014

Overview

With the first debate tomorrow, Iowa’s US Senate race is just coming into focus for most voters. Tonight’s Iowa Poll is a snapshot of where this race begins. (For historical perspective, the last September Iowa Poll taken in a statewide midterm open seat race – the 2006 gubernatorial contest – showed Jim Nussle and Chet Culver deadlocked at 44% each. Culver defeated Nussle by 10 points on Election Day. And in 1998, a September Iowa Poll in the open seat race for governor showed future Gov. Tom Vilsack trailing Jim Ross Lightfoot by 20%, 51% to 31%.)

The first Iowa Poll must be viewed in the context of the current state of play in the Iowa Senate race – specifically, that spending by the Ernst campaign and her Republican allies has far surpassed spending on the Democratic side over the past few weeks.  This sudden surge in GOP spending has skewed what previously was an even race (when the TV spending numbers were closer to parity for the duration of the summer).  While Iowa Democrats have built a significant field advantage by creating a more advanced and data-driven voter targeting system, its advantages can only be realized if the other side does not succeed in buying the election on TV and if the race remains close through the fall.

This Race Is Tied When TV Spending Is Even

Since the Iowa Senate race leveled out shortly after the Republican primary, public polls consistently showed the race to be tied through the start of September. Not coincidentally, the money being spent on TV was largely at parity during this period.  In mid-June Gravis Marketing showed the race 44% to 43% in favor of Ernst; in mid-July NBC polled the race tied at 43%;  in mid-August Rasmussen showed the race tied at 43%; in the end of August PPP showed the race essentially tied at 41% to 40% in favor of Braley; and in early September CNN showed the race essentially tied at 49% to 48% in favor of Braley.

Republicans And Their Allies Are Now Significantly Outspending Democrats

In just the past week, the gap in spending between Democrats and Republicans in Iowa has grown into a gulf: there has been nearly 50% more spent on air in support of Joni Ernst than in support of Bruce Braley. For the second half of September, the Ernst campaign and its backers have spent over $500,000 more than the Braley campaign and Democratic groups on television, according to internal tracking. Unless this disparity is equalized over the next few weeks, there is a real chance that spending by outside groups will determine the Iowa Senate race, and as a result, control of the U.S. Senate.

The Iowa Democratic Field Operation Will Prevail In a Close Race

As reported by CNN, the organic Democratic ground game In Iowa “keeps Republican strategists…awake at night.” The Democratic field advantage in Iowa is long established, having helped Iowa vote for President Obama in both 2008 and 2012.  Indeed, the Daily Beast reported, “for over a decade, one thing has been a gimme: Democrats will have a much better ground game than Republicans.” Even Republicans in Iowa admit that they are outgunned when it comes to field, with Craig Robinson of The Iowa Republican writing, “Republicans are simply getting out worked when it comes to early voting, It’s not difficult to institute an early voter program, it just requires staffers to get out of the air conditioned campaign office.”

The field advantage that Iowa Democrats have over Republicans is already showing results as early voting is beginning, with a 27,000 ballot advantage in the number of absentee ballots requested, as reported in the New York Times.   Additionally, because of advanced targeting methods being employed on the Democratic side, some 73 percent of the 23,000 unaffiliated voters who’ve requested absentee ballots are likely to support Braley.

Bottom line: as long as Democratic spending in Iowa matches the firepower that the other side is contributing to the air war, the Democratic ground game will help to ensure that Iowans turnout to elect Bruce Braley.

SEPTEMBER 28 UPDATE:

To: From: Date: Re:

Interested Parties Paul Harstad September 28, 2014 Latest Poll Shows a Tie for Iowa Senate Seat Between Braley & Ernst

Our latest telephone survey in Iowa from September 21 to 25 among 809 likely voters shows the U.S. Senate race is tied at 42% for Bruce Braley and 42% for Joni Ernst – confirming a clear trend in the direction of Braley since Labor Day.

The survey is based upon a sample of active voters from the Iowa voter file, screening down to likely voters. This sampling approach is much more reliable than a random- digit-dialing survey that is supposed to reach all adults and then screen down to likely voters. This voter-list survey methodology is all the more preferable with a lower turnout midterm election as opposed to a presidential election. Our survey was conducted by live interviewers reaching likely voters on both landlines and cell phones.

Conducted for the DSCC, the Harstad survey is based upon a sample that is 4% more registered Republicans than registered Democrats. And it also shows that Braley leads among the pivotal registered Independents by a margin of 40% to 36%.

Further affirmation is provided in terms of the candidates’ personal feelings showing that Braley (36% favorable versus 36% unfavorable) is actually a shade more popular than Ernst (38% favorable, 42% unfavorable). His very unfavorable score is 22% versus 28% for her.

The survey was conducted by Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. An Iowa native, Paul Harstad has served as Senator Tom Harkin’s pollster from 1983 to the present and for both of Governor Tom Vilsack’s successful come-from-behind races. Harstad has also polled for Barack Obama since 2002 – including for his upset win in the 2008 Iowa Presidential Caucus and both of his general election wins in 2008 and 2012. No pollster in America has conducted statewide surveys in Iowa with more frequency, more accuracy or more success than Harstad.