What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread. I live-blogged yesterday’s gubernatorial debate, for those who missed it.
Today’s Sunday Des Moines Register includes a big feature by Jason Noble and Jeffrey C. Kummer on the $13.8 million spent so far on television commercials to influence Iowa’s U.S. Senate race. I’ve posted some excerpts after the jump.
Does anyone else think we’ve passed the point of diminishing returns on tv ads in this race? The vast majority of ads aired have been negative, and the overall quality has been poor. One of the biggest anti-Ernst spenders, NextGen Climate Action, has not produced a decent commercial yet. Most of the output has been so bad, I honestly believe Braley would be better off if NextGen had not gotten involved in this campaign at all. The Sierra Club’s spots are only marginally better. Some of the Braley campaign’s own negative ads have struck me as potentially effective, but at this point I suspect most Iowans are tuning out political ads. The volume has been overwhelming in the targeted media markets.
Pro-Republican groups, starting with fronts for the Koch brothers and now including one of Karl Rove’s outfits, keep pounding at the same two points to make Braley look bad: he insulted Senator Chuck Grassley and allegedly all Iowa farmers, and he missed a lot of House Veterans Affairs Committee meetings. But I have to wonder: once someone has heard 500 times about Braley’s alleged insult to Iowa farmers, will hearing it another ten or twenty times make any difference? Craig Robinson thinks Republicans are putting too many eggs in these baskets, and I tend to agree. The biggest accomplishment of these anti-Braley ads has been to force the Democrat to spend a lot of his money countering these charges (for instance, with tv spots on his connection to his grandparents’ farm or about what he has done for Iowa veterans). They have dictated the terms of his positive messages.
Probably the best outside ad money spent so far has been by the Chamber of Commerce. They’re running ads with Senator Chuck Grassley and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey endorsing Ernst. Simple, positive messages.
From Jason Noble and Jeffrey C. Kummer’s September 21 feature on advertising in the IA-Sen race:
The totals: $7.8 million on 14,499 spots in six Iowa TV markets for Braley and his supporters, and $5.9 million on 16,113 commercials for Ernst and her supporters. […]
A collaborative statewide review of political advertising contracts filed electronically with the Federal Communications Commission for ads that began airing on or before September 10 also showed:
• Joni Ernst and her supporters have aired about 1,600 more ads than have Braley and his supporters. But the Braley side has spent nearly $2 million more.
• Outside groups have been big players on behalf of both candidates, accounting for 84 percent of the pro-Braley ad spending and 79 percent in support of Ernst. Another way to look at it: Ernst’s campaign is footing a bigger share of the bill for ads in support of its candidate.
• So far, both campaigns and their supporters are all but ignoring several border markets – Omaha-Council Bluffs, Sioux Falls, Ottumwa-Kirksville and Burlington-Hannibal-Quincy – and concentrating their ad blitz in more densely populated portions of central and eastern Iowa. […]
Braley and Co. have spent more money on fewer ads, underscoring a focus on the relatively expensive Des Moines and Quad Cities markets that reach a big chunk of Iowa voters. Out of $7.8 million spent, $3.4 million was poured into 4,446 ads on Des Moines-area stations, and $1.9 million was spent on nearly 3,000 spots in the Quad Cities.
The Des Moines market alone encompasses 34 counties and about 40 percent of the electorate in the central Iowa battleground, while the Quad Cities market reaches eight Mississippi River counties comprising another 15 percent.
The two markets together account for 68 percent of total pro-Braley spending and 51 percent of the ads aired.
Ernst and her backers have spent less but gotten more air time for their money by running ads in the cheaper Cedar Rapids and Sioux City media markets. Out of about 16,000 ads run, more than a quarter appeared on Cedar Rapids-Waterloo stations and another 4,009 ran on Sioux City stations. Together, that’s well over half her total ads aired. The bill for those 8,336 spots was just $2 million, a tick more than Braley and backers paid for a thousand fewer ads in the Quad Cities alone.
The Cedar Rapids-Waterloo market represents much of Braley’s home turf – he’s from Waterloo and has represented northeast Iowa in Congress for eight years. Sioux City and northwest Iowa, meanwhile, make up the state’s Republican heartland. Some rural counties there go 75 percent or more in favor of GOP candidates.