More signs suggest that other candidates and their supporters see Monte Shaw as their primary threat at Saturday’s special convention to choose a Republican nominee in IA-03. Craig Robinson wrote about the multi-pronged attacks on Shaw at The Iowa Republican blog. Shaw has served as Iowa Renewable Fuels Association executive director since 2005, and the Liberty Iowa PAC has highlighted donations that trade association’s PAC made to Democratic candidates during the years. The Liberty PAC represents a group of former Ron Paul supporters. They have endorsed State Senator Brad Zaun in the IA-03 primary, although ironically, Zaun backed Michele Bachmann (not Paul) in the 2012 Iowa caucus campaign.

Anonymous e-mails circulated to Republican district convention delegates prompted the Shaw campaign to file a complaint with the Federal Election Commission last week.

I had viewed Shaw and Robert Cramer as the most viable candidates going into convention. Apparently Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz and I finally agreed on something. According to Robinson, Schultz’s campaign has sent GOP delegates direct mail “comparing Schultz to Shaw and Cramer on the issues of government spending and taxes.” Meanwhile, an arm of the American Future Fund has been sending out positive mail about Schultz, while the Tea Party Express attacked Shaw for Iowa Renewable Fuels Association PAC contributions to Democrats including “Staci Appel, Chet Culver, Mike Gronstal, Chris Hall, and Pat Murphy.”

I’ll believe an informal survey showing David Young in a strong position when other campaigns start attacking Young. So far, he does not appear to be viewed as a threat. One could argue that’s a great place to be in a contest likely to force multiple ballots, but I still don’t see delegates nominating a career Congressional staffer over rivals who have spent most of their adult lives in Iowa.

UPDATE: Added more details on the convention procedure below and a new argument against Schultz I hadn’t heard before.

The Des Moines Register summarized the rules for Saturday’s nominating convention. I’ll be very surprised if the delegates settle on a candidate sooner than four or five ballots.

MAJORITY NEEDED: Republican convention rules call for the nomination to be decided by a secret ballot. To be chosen as the party’s nominee for Congress, a candidate must receive at least 50 percent of the vote, plus one vote, from those present and voting.

ELIMINATION RULE: If no candidate receives a majority after two ballots, the candidate with the fewest votes will be removed from eligibility for the third ballot. The process of eliminating the lowest vote-getter will continue for the fourth and subsequent ballots until one candidate receives a majority.

Without citing a source, William Petroski reported for the Des Moines Register on June 20,

Questions have also been raised because Secretary of State Matt Schultz signed up his children for Hawk-I, a government-sponsored health insurance program, before he was elected to state government.

Hawk-I provides free or low-cost health care coverage for Iowa children in families with limited incomes. Some critics have questioned why Schultz took advantage of a subsidized government health care program for his family, while supporting repeal of President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act, which they say would hurt Iowa children.

Through a campaign spokesman, Schultz declined to answer questions about his decision, but said in a statement that Hawk-I is nothing like the Affordable Care Act.

“No one should equate programs for children in need to a $1.7 trillion federal government takeover of health care. I fully support maintaining a safety net for children and families just like the Iowa-based Hawk-I program,” Schultz said.

Nice to know that Schultz fully supports HAWK-I, Iowa’s version of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program adopted while Bill Clinton was president and expanded under Democratic governors.