It’s been a while since we had a thread about the 2016 presidential campaign on the Republican side. Spin your own scenarios in the comments.

Public Policy Polling’s latest survey of Iowa Republicans shows a jumble, with former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee slightly ahead, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas notably trending up and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida trending down, along with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Highlights are after the jump, or click here for full results and cross-tabs. I’m not surprised to see Cruz’s favorability improve, as he wowed Republican crowds during two Iowa visits last year.

PPP’s robocall format only allows a maximum of nine candidates to be listed. I find it strange that the pollster included Huckabee and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, neither of whom seem likely to run for president in 2016. It’s all the more odd since the poll did not give respondents a chance to choose former Senator Rick Santorum, the narrow winner of the 2012 Iowa caucuses, as a presidential candidate.

PPP’s poll also did not offer respondents a chance to choose Texas Governor Rick Perry, who came to Iowa this week. He appeared on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” program, attended a “business roundtable” in Davenport organized by the Koch Brothers group Americans for Prosperity, and spoke to GOP activists in Polk County at a private fundraiser and a small “rally” at Governor Terry Branstad’s campaign headquarters. I’ve posted excerpts from Perry’s “Iowa Press” comments below. I was particularly interested in his take on Arizona Governor Jan Brewer vetoing a bill that would have allowed private businesses to discriminate against same-sex couples. Perry provided a textbook example of how to pivot away from the question you don’t want to answer the question you wanted.

Another ambitious Republican excluded from PPP’s Iowa poll is former Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who recently agreed to headline the April 3 GOP dinner in tiny Ringgold County. Brown visited the Iowa State Fair last summer and spoke at a Scott County GOP event in November.  

Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen summarized results from the poll of 283 Iowa Republicans between February 20 and 23 (margin of error plus or minus 5.8 percent):

Mike Huckabee leads the GOP race with 17% to 14% for Rand Paul, 13% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Chris Christie and Ted Cruz, 9% for Paul Ryan, 7% for Bobby Jindal and Scott Walker, and 3% for Marco Rubio. He leads based on his strength with ‘very conservative’ voters, among whom he gets 28% to 18% for Cruz and 12% for Paul.

Huckabee is one of three Republicans we tested with a favorability rating over 60% with GOP voters in the state. He is at 63/19 and is joined in a high level of popularity by Paul Ryan (63/13) and Sarah Palin (61/21). Rand Paul (59/15) and Jeb Bush (50/17) are the other two candidates who are seen positively by a majority of Republicans in the state.

There are a few GOP hopefuls who are clearly on the decline with Iowa Republicans. Chris Christie’s favorability has dropped a net 15 points from July and is now only a narrowly positive 38/35 spread after having been 45/27 before. His support for the nomination has dropped from 16% to 10%. Marco Rubio’s seen a big drop as well. Last summer he had a 54/14 rating, but that’s now only 42/14. His support for the nomination has dipped from 11% to 3%.

Rick Perry on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” program, February 27:

Henderson: Your neighbors in the south, Arizona, their legislature passed a law that granted a religious exemption to business owners in regards to the same-sex marriage issue.  Jan Brewer, the Governor of Arizona, republican vetoed that.  Did she make the right decision?

Perry: She did for Arizona, absolutely.  We addressed those issues from time to time and, again, I’m not going to — I may not agree with a particular position but it is each state’s, I think, 10th Amendment prerogative to make those decisions that are within the bounds of the state’s discretion when it comes to making —

Borg: Are you saying Arizona is a bit different than Texas?  You said it was right for Arizona.

Perry: Yeah, and I said that about a number of things that Arizona has done in the past that I may not necessarily have agreed with.  And there are decisions made every day and then people can live where they are most comfortable.  It’s one of the things — I go, actually I think someone said that I had come to Iowa to recruit businesses.  I recruit businesses practically anywhere I go.  But if I were really serious about recruiting businesses, Iowa would not be a real highly productive place.  More people are working in Iowa than have ever worked before in their lives, your unemployment rate is 4.2%, your governor has done some extraordinary things here to make this one of the more competitive states in the country.  So if I were going to go recruit businesses I probably would go to California or Illinois, better fishin’.

Later, Perry talked about the presidential campaign:

Henderson: Let us talk about political reality.  There’s an old adage that you never get a second chance to make a first impression.  What is wrong about the first impression Iowans had of you?

Perry: Well, I would suggest to you I learned some good lessons about running for the presidency of the United States.  If you’re going to run I highly suggest you don’t have major back surgery six weeks before you get into the race.  And preparation is really important.  Parachuting into a project as big and as broad and as complex as running for the presidency of the United States is very difficult to do as we did.  So lessons learned are important.

[…]

Obradovich: Speaking about 2016, we’re maybe a month shy of 700 days away from the Iowa caucuses at this point.  What is the status of your thinking right now about running for president in 2016?

Perry: I’ve got 11 months left of my governorship in the state of Texas.  2014 is where the focus is.  Electing governors like Terry Branstad, there are 36 governorships up for decision between now and November, that is where my focus is going to stay.

Obradovich: But you just said running for president takes a lot of thought and a lot of preparation.  So —

Perry: Right, but responding to Kay’s question.

Borg: Put it this way, and again this is an if, not hypothetical though.  If you were, because you have had some experience with the Iowa caucuses, would you come back to Iowa and run in a process that it a little bit different than a primary?

Perry: Well, again, 2016 is way down the road and I think to spend much time talking about it at this particular juncture is not productive for me.

Henderson: Do you think you’d get a fair shot here? There were actually three winners of the caucuses on caucus night Mitt Romney, certified results —

Perry: I think you make your fair shot so Iowans are fair and thoughtful people.  And so they’re going to be fair and thoughtful as they decide who is going to lead this state for the next four years and that’s the reason Terry Branstad is going to be I think their choice and will win overwhelmingly but I want to help him and make sure that a governor who understands about giving the freedom to the private sector, doesn’t believe that all decisions need to be made in Washington, D.C., that the legislature and a governor in Iowa are a lot better to make decisions for the people of this state than Washington. […]

Henderson: Iowans have been taking a look at another Texan, Ted Cruz has made a number of trips here.  What is the difference between a Ted Cruz republican and a Rick Perry republican?

Perry: I’ll let other people make that decision.

Henderson: Is there a difference?

Perry: I would suggest to you we’re all different in some form or fashion.  So a United States senator and a governor are different.  I’ve got to think that Terry Branstad and Senator Harkin are different.  And they’re different in their function.  A governor has to get things done.  We have to work with members of both political parties.  United States senators talk a lot and it doesn’t make any difference whether they’re republicans or democrat senators, they are completely different jobs.  So the idea that philosophically we probably have a lot of things that we agree on, there may be some that we don’t, I’ve never sat down and put a side-by-side together between myself and John Cornyn or Ted Cruz for that matter.  Here’s what I do know is that we all believe that the answers are not emanating from Washington, D.C. today and hopefully my senators and the new senator from Iowa will give more of the decision-making back to Terry Branstad and the legislators in Iowa rather than trying to continue to consolidate and centralize power in Washington, D.C.