Sam Clovis dodged what could have been a fatal blow to his U.S. Senate campaign when Bob Vander Plaats decided not to run. But to have any hope of winning the GOP primary, the Sioux City-based college professor and former radio host needs to raise real money and consolidate social conservative support quickly.  

Leaving aside the little-known candidates Scott Schaben and Paul Lunde for now, Clovis has three real competitors for the Senate nomination: Mark Jacobs, Joni Ernst, and Matt Whitaker. Jacobs is running on his business knowledge and acumen. He has plenty of money to spend but has given the Republican base several reasons not to trust him on their key issues. Ernst has a lot of GOP establishment support and is posturing as a solid conservative but seems willing to switch positions based on political expediency.

That leaves an opening for Matt Whitaker and Clovis to fight for the principled conservative niche, painting Jacobs as a “Republican In Name Only” and Ernst as a creature of high-powered consultants with no solid core. Both Whitaker and Clovis have performed relatively well at Republican debates and candidate forums, though Clovis has won more straw polls. Clovis set out to run a grassroots campaign and claims to have a larger ground game than his competitors with more than 400 county co-captains. His Facebook feed is full of updates from house parties and GOP events around the state. In early December, his campaign surpassed the number of signatures needed to qualify for the primary ballot.

In addition to organizing speakers to advocate for Clovis at off-year precinct caucuses, the Clovis campaign has reportedly been “calling county delegates to see if they plan on moving on to the [Republican] district and state conventions.” That’s a wise backup strategy in case no candidate wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the June primary, forcing a statewide GOP convention to select the Senate nominee.

But the odds of a convention scenario are longer now than they appeared several months ago, with no one from the Ron Paul “Liberty” faction in the Senate race, Vander Plaats opting out and David Young moving to the third Congressional district primary. With only four credible candidates seeking the Senate nomination, I am inclined to think someone will clear the 35 percent hurdle on June 3.

I see an opening on the right, and a grassroots strategy isn’t as expensive as the Jacobs approach, with paid radio and television advertising starting six months before the primary. But even a shoestring campaign costs money. Clovis raised just $13,607.48 during the second quarter, $77,525.74 during the third quarter, and $70,835.60 during the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, his campaign’s latest FEC filing shows $85,395.62 in expenditures during the last three months of 2013 alone. That left Clovis with just $24,010.64 cash on hand and $10,978.00 in debts and obligations as of December 31.

That’s not enough cash to cover even a small staff and statewide direct mail before the primary, let alone paid broadcast advertising.

Matt Whitaker hasn’t raised a lot of money either, but he’s got a lot more cash on hand than Clovis, went into the campaign better-known because of his Iowa Hawkeye football career, and is now appearing in television commercials for his Des Moines-based law firm.

Proving that no one can be wrong all of the time, Steve Deace commented after Vander Plaats bowed out this past weekend,

Clovis supporters are adamant their candidate’s paltry fundraising and meager polling is strictly the result of conservatives unwilling to commit until Vander Plaats decided what he was going to do, and that if Vander Plaats decided not to run he would surge.

We’re about to find out if they’re right.

[…] If Clovis is not able to capitalize immediately on Vander Plaats passing on the race with some major endorsements and/or a serious uptick in fundraising, then he’s not a threat to win the nomination.

Seeming to recognize the pressing need to build momentum, the Clovis campaign announced yesterday,

Sam Clovis, candidate for the U.S. Senate, hit the ground running today with his sights on the June primary.  “I am the candidate who has the strongest conservative message and can articulate that message to the voters of Iowa.” […]

“Bruce Braley and his fellow Democrats are a rubber stamp for President Obama,” said Clovis.  “The IRS abuses, Obamacare and Obama’s Executive Orders are all unconstitutional and this needs to stop.  This Administration is good at mandating for others what they will not do for themselves.  It is time for a grassroots revolution.  Iowa voters can turn D.C. around.  What Braley and Obama are doing is fundamentally immoral and it needs to be stopped.  We need to hold them accountable for their actions.”

Clovis continued by saying that Iowa is at the center of national politics, and Iowans must ask the question ‘where do we want to go’?  “My campaign offers courage, hope and opportunity.  We, the people, need to create a sense of urgency and hold those accountable who are attacking our Constitutional foundation.  I am the candidate who has a rock solid foundation on the issues and I will deliver on my promises to Iowans – not the special interests of the Beltway.”

Anyone in the GOP field could have said exactly the same thing about Bruce Braley and Barack Obama. Clovis needs to find some way to set himself apart or at least bring in enough cash to get his message to primary voters this spring. None of the remaining Republican debates is likely to reach a large viewing or listening audience.

Any comments about the Senate campaign are welcome in this thread.