Like the latest Des Moines Register poll, Quinnipiac’s new Iowa poll shows Governor Terry Branstad in a commanding position heading into next year’s election.  

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,617 registered Iowa voters between December 10 and 15 and published the key poll findings yesterday.

Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad’s reelection prospects are improving as voters approve 58 – 32 percent of the job he is doing, and say 50 – 41 percent that he deserves to be reelected […].

Branstad is close to 50 percent in races against three possible Democratic challengers:

49 – 33 percent over State Sen. Jack Hatch;

50 – 32 percent over State Rep. Tyler Olson;

49 – 31 percent over former State Rep. Bob Krause. […]

Iowa voters give Gov. Branstad high marks for character, saying:

61 – 29 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;

67 – 27 percent that he is a strong leader;

56 – 37 percent that he cares about their needs and problems.

Assuming a perfectly random sample, this poll’s margin for error is plus or minus 2.4 percent. However, the poll sample contained 28 percent self-identified Republicans, 27 percent Democrats, and 40 percent no-party voters. That’s close to the partisan breakdown of the Iowa electorate, but no-party voters typically turn out at far lower rates during midterm years. Independents comprised only a little more than a quarter of the Iowans who cast ballots in the 2006 and 2010 elections.

Since independents surveyed by Quinnipiac approve of Branstad by 57 percent to 31 percent, it’s possible that this poll somewhat overstates the governor’s support.

Nevertheless, these findings are consistent with other recent Iowa polls, which suggests that something dramatic would have to change to give the Democratic nominee a realistic chance to be elected governor next November. Branstad will surely be able to outspend any challenger, and Iowans generally tend to re-elect incumbents.