Echoing results from Quinnipiac’s Iowa poll in July, the latest statewide survey by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register shows that Iowans generally approve of Governor Terry Branstad’s work but feel he “has been in office long enough.”
Selzer & Co. polled 800 Iowa adults between September 22 and 25, producing a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. About 54 percent of respondents said they approve of Branstad’s job performance as governor, while only 36 percent disapproved and 10 percent were unsure. Although the political leanings of 2014 midterm election voters may not perfectly line up with a random sample of Iowans over age 18, approve/disapprove numbers of 54/36 are considered well outside the danger zone for an incumbent.
On the other hand Iowa Democrats will be encouraged by this Register poll finding:
Fifty-five percent said Branstad “has been in office long enough,” compared to 35 percent who said he should seek another term.
Unsurprisingly, those views have a partisan cast: 71 percent of Democrats said Branstad has held office long enough, compared to just 31 percent of Republicans. Perhaps more of a trouble sign for Branstad: Among self-identified independents, 62 percent said he has held office long enough, and just 28 percent said he should run again.
As I commented on Quinnipiac’s poll over the summer, thinking that Branstad should retire rather than seek a sixth term is different from being willing to vote for an alternative to Branstad if he decides to run again. The Democratic nominee for governor will have to persuade voters that Branstad doesn’t deserve credit for things that have been going well during his term, and/or that Iowa could do much better under new leadership.
This finding from the Register’s new poll was interesting.
Branstad’s job approval numbers closely track poll respondents’ perceptions of the state overall. Fifty-two percent of Iowans said the state is headed in the right direction, compared to 36 percent who said it’s on the wrong track. As with the governor’s numbers, those are slightly more pessimistic than the June Iowa Poll, when 56 percent said the state was going in the right direction.
A year ago, in September 2012, 60 percent said Iowa was headed in the right direction.
The Iowa Poll also asked whether respondents believe the state government is headed in the right direction.
The largest group – 45 percent – said Iowa’s government is headed down the wrong track, versus 41 percent who see it going in the right direction.
That sentiment is most pronounced among independent voters. Among Republicans, 47 percent said state government is headed in the right direction, compared to 40 percent who said it is going down the wrong track. Percentages are the same for Democrats.
Independents are much more pessimistic: 49 percent said state government is going down the wrong track, compared to 37 percent who said they believe it’s headed in the right direction.
In general, an incumbent governor is heavily favored to win re-election if his approval rating is above 50 percent and more than half the state’s residents believe things are going “in the right direction” rather than “on the wrong track.” But there may be an opening for a Democratic candidate who can tie Branstad to things about state government that have been going wrong lately.
Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.
Speaking of the governor’s race, it’s striking that Branstad and Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds continue to do so many public appearances together instead of dividing them up, as has been typical for Iowa governors and lieutenant governors the last few decades.