State Representative Walt Rogers confirmed to the Waterloo/Cedar Falls Courier that he is analyzing a bid for the Republican nomination in Iowa’s first Congressional district now that House Speaker Kraig Paulsen has passed on the race. Rogers hopes to decide later this summer whether to run for Congress. After the jump I’ve enclosed background on Rogers and early thoughts on his strengths and weaknesses as a candidate.
I also included a map of Iowa House district 60 and the latest voter registration numbers for the seat Rogers would have to leave open if he runs for Congress in 2014.
Rogers is a rising star among statehouse Republicans. First elected to the Iowa House in 2010, he became an assistant majority leader at the start of his second term. House Speaker Paulsen picked Rogers out of 22 first-termers in his GOP caucus to attend the 2012 GOPAC Emerging Leaders Summit, open to fewer than twenty Republican state legislators from around the country. Rogers was selected as an “honorary co-chair” of this year’s GOPAC Emerging Leaders Summit, suggesting that he made a good impression on people in the national organization.
During the 2013 Iowa legislative session, House leaders picked Rogers to floor manage one of the most important bills, the GOP alternative to Medicaid expansion. As former State Representative Willard Jenkins pointed out, “The health care bill was a big bill for the Republicans. When the leadership has the confidence in a guy in his third year, it shows the confidence people in Des Moines have in Walt.” Rogers was named to the conference committee charged with working out a compromise on Medicaid expansion, although other lawmakers struck the final deal.
Rogers is considered a relatively strong campaigner. He fell just 22 votes short of knocking off incumbent Democratic State Senator Jeff Danielson in 2008, an impressive showing considering that Barack Obama easily won that Senate district in Waterloo and Cedar Falls. Rogers then defeated two-term Democratic State Representative Doris Kelley by a comfortable margin in the more Republican-friendly 2010 environment.
Campaign finance disclosure reports for Rogers’ Iowa House campaigns show that he has a broader fundraising base than many statehouse candidates in Iowa. He hasn’t raised huge amounts of money but could probably pull together enough for a decent district-wide campaign during the primary. The two declared GOP candidates in IA-01 have not amassed big war chests so far.
Rogers endorsed Rick Santorum for president in July 2011. During the 2012 primary campaign for IA-01, he backed fellow Santorum supporter Ben Lange, who narrowly defeated Rod Blum before losing the general election to incumbent Representative Bruce Braley.
I considered Blum the favorite to win next year’s IA-01 primary against Paulsen and Steve Rathje. If Rogers gets in the race, much of the GOP establishment would probably get behind him, and he is a more natural campaigner than Paulsen. Other potential weak spots for the Iowa House speaker in a Congressional campaign might not apply to Rogers. For instance, he is not a “career lawyer and politician” like Paulsen. Here’s the official bio for Rogers on the Iowa House Republicans website. He has also worked as a youth pastor in two different Cedar Falls churches.
Walt was born on July 5, 1961, as the sixth of what would be eight children. Some would say, “Wow, you just missed being born on the Fourth of July.” But in Walt’s philosophy, it’s not just whether you declare freedom on one official day – it’s what you’re going to do about freedom the next day and the day after. And as he’s watched a government with an endless appetite for expansion erode our liberties, undercut our businesses, and intrude deeper into our lives, it has become obvious that we need leaders to step up and turn things around.
Rogers continues to counsel parents, students and consult with youth organizations nationally. He has experience as a concert/event planner, including founding and directing Onefest, one of the largest indoor musical festivals in the Midwest. His work through board memberships in the Safe and Drug Free Committee, Alternatives Pregnancy Center, My Waterloo Days and Love Cedar Valley has honed his leadership skills and given him an appreciation for local grassroots efforts.
Walt attended St. Nicholas Elementary School, St. Edward Middle School, and graduated from Columbus High School in 1979, after being active in Student Council, track, cross-country, and football. It was during high school that Walt met Jenny Ridder; they were married in 1980. Walt then attended the University of Northern Iowa, where he earned a Bachelor of Technology Degree with an emphasis in Manufacturing and Management Technology in 1984. While at UNI, Walt was a member of the track team, and was active in both the Society of Mechanical Engineers and the technical fraternity Epsilon Pi Tau.
Walt and Jenny have lived in Cedar Falls for 32 years. Together they have three children: Jonathan, Alli and Michael. Jonathan and his wife Katie live and work in Cedar Falls, Alli and her husband Kirk live and work in Portland, Oregon, and Michael and his wife Kristen live and work Cedar Falls.
Rogers would likely be the only GOP candidate from Black Hawk County, the second-largest by population in IA-01.
On to the weaknesses: as part of the Iowa House leadership team, Rogers could take some hits from Blum and Rathje over compromises struck on abortion funding, taxes, and Medicaid expansion. He defended the Medicaid compromise as the best deal Republicans could get with a Democratic-controlled Senate, and that may be true. But Blum’s “no compromises” position may be more popular with GOP primary voters.
Final note: Iowa law prevents candidates from running for two offices at once, so Rogers would have to vacate House district 60 in order to run for Congress. Here’s a closer view of the district, which covers parts of southern Cedar Falls and southwest Waterloo.
House district 60 leans Republican, but no-party voters have a plurality. According to the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, House district 60 contained 6,413 registered Democrats, 7,327 Republicans, and 8,692 no-party voters as of August 2013. Rogers was re-elected by a nearly 700-vote margin in 2012 and would be favored to win a third term next year, since Democratic turnout is typically lower in midterm elections. An open seat race in House district 60 would likely be more competitive. Barack Obama narrowly edged out Mitt Romney in House district 60 last year.
Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I would not be surprised if Rogers decides to continue building his career in the Iowa House.