Two Democrats are already exploring running for governor next year: State Senator Jack Hatch and former State Representative Bob Krause.
After the jump I’ve posted some recent signals surrounding other possible Democratic challengers to Terry Branstad.
It’s been apparent for some time that U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack is not going to run for governor again, but speculation about his intentions hasn’t gone away. Senator Hatch told reporters this week that he would drop plans to run for governor himself if Vilsack got into the race. This morning, Iowa Democratic insider Jerry Crawford (who is close to the Vilsacks) predicted on Dave Price’s WHO-TV program that the former governor will soon put all speculation to rest. I can’t imagine why he would give up his job in the president’s cabinet for a chance at a job he already did for eight years.
A few months ago, Crawford asserted that Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal would “actively look at the governor’s race.” I was skeptical until Gronstal pushed hard for his caucus to accept a pretty bad deal (from my perspective) involving property tax cuts. Appearing on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” program this weekend, Gronstal commented,
Henderson: Senator Gronstal, you in the past considered running for governor. Might you run against Terry Branstad as he seeks a sixth unprecedented term as governor?
Gronstal: I’m not sure how to answer the question. […] I said until the session is over I am not even going to think about this. I am going to do my job. I don’t want everybody going, oh, he’s doing this because he’s running for governor. He’s doing that because he’s running –I said I’ll finish this session, get done with this session and then seriously consider it.
Henderson: How long is your serious consideration going to be?
Gronstal: I will make a decision before the end of the summer.
Gronstal was just re-elected to another four-year term last year, so he would not need to give up his Senate seat in order to run for governor. Whether he would step down as Senate majority leader to focus on a gubernatorial campaign is another question. Senate President Pam Jochum is the second most senior Democrat in the upper chamber. She is considering running for governor herself, but I doubt she’d run against Gronstal in a primary.
In the closing days of the Iowa legislature’s 2013 session, Gronstal sounded elated about the “historic” progress made through hard work and compromise. This clip is a preview of themes that would be prominent in a Gronstal campaign for governor:
I tend to agree with Michael Libbie that the major legislative compromises will help Terry Branstad’s quest for a sixth term more than they will help Gronstal or any Democratic challenger.
On Dave Price’s WHO show this morning, Crawford said he thinks Gronstal is “the most interested he has ever been in running for governor,” and has been encouraged to run by many Democrats. He would “effectively” clear the field, in Crawford’s opinion. By way of example, Crawford said that State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald is thinking very seriously about running for governor, but probably would not compete against Gronstal in a primary.
It’s news to me that Fitzgerald might run against Branstad. He is the longest-serving state treasurer in the country, having been first elected in 1982, the same year Branstad was elected governor for the first time. He has been re-elected seven times, twice amid huge Republican landslides (1994 and 2010).
Former Governor Chet Culver was rumored to be considering a comeback late last year. Crawford pointed out that some members of Culver’s political team are now working for Hatch as he explores a run for governor.
State Representative Tyler Olson, who chairs the Iowa Democratic Party, was a guest on Price’s show this morning as well. He did not rule out running for governor or for Congress in the open first district. I agree with Kathie Obradovich that Olson needs to make up his mind soon about seeking higher office. It’s not fair to other possible candidates for Olson to travel the state, raising his visibility and earning free media coverage as the Iowa Democratic Party’s chair.
Olson wisely told Obradovich that he recognizes he would need to step down as state party leader if he runs for any office other than re-election to the Iowa House. In retrospect, IDP Central Committee members should have considered Olson’s higher ambitions before they rubber-stamped his election as party leader. No one knew for sure that Senator Tom Harkin would retire until the day Olson was formally chosen, but Olson had discussed running for governor before then. For reasons that escape me, Iowa Democratic Party insiders are allergic to any real competition for the position of party chair.
I haven’t heard any news lately about State Senator Rob Hogg’s intentions, but Bleeding Heartland user Columcille says that Hogg has indicated he won’t run for governor if Olson does. Both represent part of the Cedar Rapids area. Hogg is up for re-election next year in Senate district 33, so he would have to give up his legislative seat in order to run for governor.
Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread.
9 Comments
Mike Gronstal
I’m very excited to see that Gronstal is seriously considering this run. He held a brief exploratory in 2005 and was my personal favorite then as well. Hopefully this time he’ll really go for it.
julie-stauch Sun 2 Jun 1:11 PM
tough slog for anyone
against Branstad. Gronstal as the Democratic nominee would fire up the base of both parties. Would be an interesting race, that’s for sure.
desmoinesdem Sun 2 Jun 2:07 PM
nah
Branstad is vulnerable. He’s made a series of self serving choices, as well as backing some bad choices for Regents. He’s out of touch and people are seeing it…hence the poll numbers.
julie-stauch Mon 3 Jun 7:05 PM
Too valuable where he is at
It is comforting that he would not have to give up his current position to run. I think Mike is great, and would likely do a great job as governor. I think it is tough for him to win that election, however: his geographic base is in the middle of Republican territory so is of limited impact, like any long-time legislators – and especially legislative leaders – he has a lot of territory to defend including, surely, several “before it before he was against its” and other tough compromises. While he suppresses it better than many, he still tends to speak in Senate-ese, and I’m not sure how he plays on month after month of TV.
I would hate to see him run and lose and weaken his hand as Senate Majority Leader. Indeed, while I feel unfair to him saying this, he is almost too good at the Majority Leader job to support him leaving it — he probably would be a good governor, but he already is almost irreplacably potent in his current role. It would be hard not to support him for gov if he chooses to run, but I’d be more comfortable with him staying right where he is and continuing to do the job he’s been doing (up until the property tax compromise.)
zeitgeist Sun 2 Jun 2:25 PM
if he runs and wins
The majority might be threatened in the special election for Iowa Senate district 8. But that would depend on what happens in the other battleground Senate races next fall.
desmoinesdem Sun 2 Jun 3:22 PM
that's a no growth philosophy
While Gronstal is valuable in the senate, that is a no growth philosophy that would slot any person where they are for the rest of their life. We all grow and change and elected officials should not be held back by success. In fact, just the opposite. If this were to be applied then only people who have no experience could run and that would be a true disaster.
I think he can run and win. Think about what that could mean and don’t be held back by fear of change in the senate.
julie-stauch Mon 3 Jun 7:14 PM
When Tom Vilsack announced his intentions,
(assuming that he confirms the speculation that he’s not going to run), he could say that he was already governor for 8 years, and no one should be in the governor’s office for longer than that.
cocinero Mon 3 Jun 2:55 PM
Gronstal
dmd is right. The majority in the Iowa Senate would be threatened. However, as we have learned in this hyper-ideological era of government a party can hold one branch of government and you are able to slow walk what the other party wants to do.
Gronstal would use the bully pulpit to criticize any move the Republicans made with their social agenda. He also wouldn’t let their budgeting get way out of wack in comparison to the priorities of a majority of Iowans.
I think Gronstal would be more creative than Hatch when it comes to the governing process. I think Hatch is looking for a new challenge. He loves solving problems, but I wonder whether he feels like he can create enough reform in the Iowa Senate. Gronstal on the other hand seems to really love his current job.
moderateiadem Mon 3 Jun 3:19 PM
disagree about senate vulnerability
There are other strong leaders in the Dem Caucus of the Iowa Senate who would step up and do great work. Many of them are part of Gronstal’s leadership team and they work well together. I think many of the Dem Senators would view this as an opportunity to show how they can lead. Pam Jochum, Matt McCoy, Joe Bolkcom, Amanda Ragan, and several others. (drawing a blank on all the names of the leadership team.) One of the things that Gronstal has done well is to delegate out those roles and give people a chance to show what they can do, so he’s not leaving the place vulnerable if he gets run over by a bus.
julie-stauch Mon 3 Jun 7:09 PM