It’s time for a new thread on the open first Congressional district seat. So far former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate. Former State Senator Swati Dandekar formed an exploratory committee last week. State Senator Jeff Danielson of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area has said he’s keeping his options open. I expect a decision relatively soon after the legislative session wraps up.
Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon “is nearly ready to announce” her candidacy, Rick Smith reported. She was first elected to the council in 2007, switched parties in 2009, and was re-elected in 2011. Cedar Rapids plaintiff’s attorney Dave O’Brien may also run, Jennifer Jacobs reported. O’Brien’s background is similar to Bruce Braley’s before his first campaign in 2006.
State Representative Tyler Olson, who also chairs the Iowa Democratic Party, hasn’t ruled out running for Congress, but some Polk County Democrats believe that if he runs for higher office next year, it will be against Governor Terry Branstad.
On the Republican side, Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje and Dubuque business owner Rod Blum are already seeking the nomination in IA-01. Once the legislature adjourns for the year, my hunch is that a Republican lawmaker will join the race. State Representative Walt Rogers of the Cedar Falls/Waterloo area confirmed earlier this year that he’s thinking about it.
The Iowa Republican’s Kevin Hall reported last month that former Secretary of State and Cedar Rapids Mayor Paul Pate is “90 percent” likely to run for office in 2014. I think Pate would be a strong general election candidate but might have trouble winning an IA-01 GOP primary. It’s also possible that he may run for Secretary of State again if Matt Schultz goes for the open U.S. Senate seat.
Current Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett is running for re-election and seems to have ruled out the IA-01 race, judging from his recent comments to Todd Dorman.
After the jump I’ve posted the latest voter registration numbers for the 20 counties in IA-01. Linn County is the largest by population, but it doesn’t dominate the district. About 30 percent of the registered Democrats, 28 percent of the Republicans, and 27 percent of the no-party voters in IA-01 live in Linn County.
The voter registration totals come from the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.
Active voter registration numbers as of May 2013
IA-01
| County | Democrats | Republicans | no-party voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allamakee | 2,194 | 4,263 | 3,096 |
| Benton | 4,622 | 4,965 | 7,409 |
| Black Hawk | 29,053 | 20,583 | 31,781 |
| Bremer | 3,796 | 5,015 | 7,326 |
| Buchanan | 3,842 | 3,129 | 6,364 |
| Clayton | 3,403 | 3,244 | 4,751 |
| Delaware | 2,573 | 3,828 | 4,922 |
| Dubuque | 24,909 | 14,774 | 22,553 |
| Fayette | 3,718 | 4,082 | 4,124 |
| Howard | 1,878 | 1,443 | 2,495 |
| Iowa | 2,774 | 3,669 | 4,764 |
| Jackson | 5,656 | 2,605 | 5,386 |
| Jones | 3,540 | 3,670 | 5,911 |
| Linn | 49,666 | 37,948 | 52,303 |
| Marshall | 7,379 | 7,477 | 8,937 |
| Mitchell | 1,783 | 2,495 | 2,662 |
| Poweshiek | 3,704 | 3,655 | 5,010 |
| Tama | 3,360 | 3,394 | 4,472 |
| Winnishiek | 3,543 | 4,465 | 5,119 |
| Worth | 1,515 | 1,749 | 1,942 |
| total | 162,908 | 136,453 | 191,327 |
3 Comments
Thoughts
I like Vernon’s basic resume. Being a business owner and a former Republican means that she genuinely must see all sides of an issue. Can those two attributes hurt in her primary? Absolutely.
I’d still prefer someone from a smaller community like Waterloo running for this season. I don’t worry about whether Cedar Rapids will be able to grow or break in over the next seven years. I worry about some of those smaller communities, am I being too backwards? Too traditional in my thinking? Yes, but I don’t care.
Pate would have trouble in a primary, but he’d have a shot if Rathje or someone else was able to take a few conservative votes from Blum. Blum’s people are going to be fired up, I haven’t seen the same level of enthusiasm around any of the other candidates mentioned thus far.
moderateiadem Fri 17 May 11:07 PM
former Republican is OK for me
but I would want to know whether she switched parties solely because of GOP intolerance on social issues like gay marriage. I wouldn’t support someone in a Democratic primary who still generally agrees with the Republican positions on tax, fiscal, and labor issues.
desmoinesdem Mon 20 May 6:38 AM
Very true
That’s hard to say. I’m sure you and I have a different point of view on who’s a fiscal liberal, moderate and conservative.
People like Frank Wolf and Don Young for example would identify as fiscal conservatives, but I don’t really think they are either conservative nor liberal on any of the three issues you listed.
I will say this though, Cedar Rapids doesn’t have many businesses where you have a huge amount of consistent demand no matter what our fiscal policy would be, so I think tax rates are going to matter unless you have a completely unstoppable business idea. Do they matter as much as a Stephen Moore thinks they do? No, but I don’t think everyone who worries about tax rates is playing Chicken Little.
I’ve come to realize that my perception of who’s a liberal and who’s a conservative is just genuinely different than a lot of people’s perception. I don’t think there’s anything that can be done to correct that.
moderateiadem Mon 20 May 4:52 PM