Shortly after Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds ruled out running for U.S. Senate next year, Republican State Senator Joni Ernst posted on Facebook, “I will be considering a run for US Senate.”

Today Ernst and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey discussed the factors influencing their decision on whether to run for Senate.

Both Ernst and Northey are waiting for Representative Steve King to decide whether to run for Senate. There’s no doubt in my mind that he will pass on this campaign, but until King makes it official, other Republicans are frozen in place.

This morning Ernst spoke to Mike Peterson of KMA news radio:

“Once he’s (King) made that determination, then I will be on the hot seat to make that commitment,” said Ernst. “But I do feel I would bring strength to this seat that, perhaps, other candidates wouldn’t. I just look forward to serving the people of Iowa. So, hopefully, we’ll find out soon whether the congressman intends to run or not, then I’ll make my determination.”

Ernst says another factor is determining whether she is a viable candidate.

“It does take a lot of strategy; a lot of polling,” she said, “and, just understanding where the voters will be when it comes to the election. What are they looking for in the election?”

Ernst says having a strong candidate to challenge Congressman Bruce Braley will benefit the GOP. Though Braley, the only declared Democratic candidate, is widely known in Eastern Iowa, Ernst says she would have an advantage over Braley in Western Iowa in terms of name recognition. She cites her National Guard experience and work with local legislators and officials as strengths.

Ernst did a tour in Kuwait during the early part of the war in Iraq, 2003 and 2004. She has served in the Iowa Army National Guard for more than two decades and was Montgomery County auditor from 2004 until early 2011, when she won a special election to replace Kim Reynolds in the Iowa Senate. Democrats did not even field a candidate against Ernst last year. Senate district 12, covering six counties in southwest Iowa, has more than twice as many registered Republicans as Democrats.

Military experience is a political plus for Ernst, no question about it. Iowa Republicans have never nominated a woman for U.S. Senate before, and the potential to make history by sending Iowa’s first woman to Congress would also help her campaign. Ernst doesn’t have to risk her Iowa Senate seat to run statewide next year, because she won’t be up for re-election in Senate district 12 until 2016.

Name recognition will be a hurdle for Ernst, as eastern Iowa is much more heavily populated than the counties where Ernst has been on the ballot. She’s not an experienced or accomplished fundraiser either, although she may not need to be if the GOP establishment gets behind her in the primary.

Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey has run two successful statewide campaigns in 2006 and 2010. I suspect that he is the mystery Republican Senator Chuck Grassley has encouraged to run for Senate, as a way of opening up the secretary of agriculture position for Grassley’s grandson, State Representative Pat Grassley, in 2014.

Speaking to Radio Iowa today, Northey repeated what he has said before: he won’t run for U.S. Senate if Steve King’s in the race. Northey expressed confidence about GOP chances in today’s interview.

“I really believe that politically it could be done,” Northey told Radio Iowa. “I believe it could work for me and lots of other people. I certainly believe it could have worked for [Lieutenant Governor] Kim [Reynolds] and I know it could work as well for the congressman [King].” […]

“I certainly get the sense that there’s support to be able to run,” Northey said. “I think there’s going to be no problem with anybody, at the end of this race, with name I.D., you know, after all the money that’s going to be spent on this.”

One consideration for Northey is his farming operation. He still works the ground on his farm near Spirit Lake, land that’s been in the family since the 1930s and Northey says it wouldn’t be easy to walk away from that.

“I do have other family there that can farm it, that I could rent to,” Northey said, “but it wouldn’t be the same as me being able to get out and farm myself.”

Northey said he is approaching this decision with his “eyes wide open” and full knowledge of the time commitment that’s required.

“You know the race, the next 18 months, is going to be very intense,” Northey said.

To my knowledge, no Democratic candidate has announced plans to run for secretary of agriculture next year. In any event, Northey would be heavily favored in a third campaign for that job. I am not sure he’d be a strong candidate for Senate. While Northey comes across as likable in person, I question whether he would be able to hold his own debating rival candidates on issues outside his agricultural comfort zone. He is also on record supporting a gas tax increase as a way to improve rural infrastructure. That position might be defensible, but it won’t play well in a Republican primary, even though the Iowa Farm Bureau and some other powerful interest groups agreed with Northey.

UPDATE: Citing unnamed Republican sources, WHO-TV’s Dave Price reports that National Republican Senatorial Committee staff have been in Des Moines on April 24 and 25 to “meet with nearly two dozen potential candidates and key [GOP] operatives.”

SECOND UPDATE: I did not realize that Ernst was on record supporting a gasoline tax increase. That would hurt her in a GOP primary for sure.

Republican blogger Craig Robinson did not even include Northey in his “U.S. Senate primary power rankings,” but he guessed that there’s a 65 percent chance of Ernst running and a 90 percent chance of Secretary of State Matt Schultz and former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker running.

APRIL 29 UPDATE: Ernst spoke to The Iowa Republican blog about her plans:

“I bring some different attributes to this seat,” Ernst told TheIowaRepublican.com. “We won’t have this opportunity again for a very long time so I think it’s important that Republicans can take this seat and hold this seat. I think as a veteran, I think I bring a unique aspect that hasn’t been talked about yet as members come forward that want to run for this seat.” […]

“I’ve enjoyed working in the state senate and this was a natural progression, I felt,” Ernst stated. “I really want to work for Iowa and take that common sense to Washington, D.C.”

Joni Ernst has set a timeline of about 30 days to make a decision on whether or not to pursue this opportunity.

Democratic Senate candidate Bruce Braley has served on the House Veterans Affairs Committee and appears likely to highlight his advocacy for veterans during the Senate campaign, just as he did during his 2012 re-election campaign in Iowa’s first Congressional district (see also here and here).