Dubuque business owner Rod Blum told the Marshall County Republican Central Committee this week that he plans to enter the GOP primary to represent the open first Congressional district. Blum finished a close second to Ben Lange in the 2012 IA-01 primary. Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje was the first Republican to announce in IA-01. I haven’t heard any news lately about other possible Republican candidates in the first district, like State Representative Walt Rogers or former Secretary of State Paul Pate.
Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer predicted on Sunday that the first Iowa woman elected governor or to Congress will be a Republican. If no Democratic woman steps up in IA-01, I believe Upmeyer will be proven right. I have heard from several independent sources that State Senator Liz Mathis is privately telling Democrats she won’t run for Congress. Senate President Pam Jochum took herself out of the running last month. Former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate so far. State Senator Steve Sodders is talking with potential supporters about the race.
I haven’t heard about any Republican planning to run against four-term Democrat Dave Loebsack in IA-02. For now, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee does not appear worried about holding this district.
According to the Des Moines rumor mill, former State Senator Staci Appel is considering a run for Congress in IA-03. Appel lives in Warren County and served one term in the Iowa Senate before losing to Republican Kent Sorenson in 2010. Mike Sherzan is currently the only declared Democratic challenger to ten-term Republican Tom Latham.
I haven’t heard of any Democrats planning to challenge six-term incumbent Steve King in IA-04. I’m still confident King will not run for the U.S. Senate. But if King does leave the fourth district open, many Republicans are rumored to be thinking about that race, including Upmeyer and State Representative Chip Baltimore.
Any comments about next year’s Congressional races in Iowa are welcome in this thread. A Congressional map is after the jump, along with the latest voter registration numbers in each district and Stuart Rothenberg’s comments on why he does not consider Latham or King vulnerable in 2014.
Active voter registration totals in the Congressional districts as of March 2013, according to the Iowa Secretary of State’s office:
IA-01: 165,428 Democrats, 137,943 Republicans, 193,674 no-party voters
IA-02: 174,351 Democrats, 140,684 Republicans, 185,578 no-party voters
IA-03: 159,575 Democrats, 165,595 Republicans, 157,163 no-party voters
IA-04: 131,552 Democrats, 180,956 Republicans, 178,651 no-party voters
Excerpt from Stuart Rothenberg commentary in Roll Call: Is the House in Play? A District-by-District Assessment.
Republican Rep. Tom Latham of Iowa defeated another incumbent, Democrat Leonard L. Boswell, running in territory very different from the Republican’s district last decade. Because of that, Latham’s 8-point victory – in a district that President Barack Obama won by more than 4 points – is a sign of strength, not vulnerability.
Similarly, Republican Rep. Steve King’s 8-point victory in another Iowa district over a highly touted Democrat isn’t a sign of vulnerability. King beat Christie Vilsack, wife of the former governor and current secretary of Agriculture, by almost the identical margin that Mitt Romney beat Obama in the district, suggesting a polarized electorate with a clear Republican bent.
7 Comments
Candidates
If no woman jumps into the IA-1 race they are passing up a great opportunity. It’s not Pat Murphy’s fault no woman seeks the seat. Liz Mathis isn’t the only option either.
Blum is actually a decent candidate, I think he has a tendency to go off message, but I think he brings more credibility to the race than Ben Lange or some of the other names that we have heard whispered on the GOP side. Can Blum win a general? I doubt it, but I think we could actually have a policy discussion in the first.
Staci Appel should run in the third. More women could also look at that race. To tell you the truth I think Christie Vilsack could have made a strong candidate for the U.S. Senate with or without Bruce Braley in the race if she had just played her cards right by not running in 2012. I’ve made that point a lot of the time, though.
Someone will run, even if it is Langston who just approved a pay increase will be highly competitive.
moderateiadem Wed 20 Mar 5:17 PM
I hope it's not Langston
I think a Republican could beat a Democrat who was already earning more than $70K and voted to raise her own pay above $90K. It’s a Democratic-leaning district but not overwhelmingly so.
There are many women in IA-01 who could win a general election. Someone needs to step up, though. If Republicans were smart, I think they would nominate a woman, but I haven’t heard of any women considering that race on the GOP side.
desmoinesdem Thu 21 Mar 9:16 AM
Blum
Blum will do well against anyone in a primary. I think any Dem starts off with the lead against Blum, including Langston and her pay increase.
I’m still hopeful Anesa will run, but we would have heard something by now if she was mulling it. Word always gets out.
moderateiadem Thu 21 Mar 6:45 PM
I tend to agree
Blum nearly beat Ben Lange, who had much more money and almost all the establishment support. I think he’s got a good chance in the primary. He probably does start out as an underdog against generic D, but I really worry about that pay raise. Median household income in IA-01 is about $50,000.
desmoinesdem Fri 22 Mar 9:14 AM
Just my feeling....and prediction....
….Staci will not run. Her post Iowa senate venture into the food business was a complete folly, and her short Iowa senate stay was…let’s just say…of limited accomplishment.
A run for congress will bring to light too many issues for Ms. Appel. I know there is desperation for some to elect a woman to this office, but you cannot pick just any woman.
mirage Wed 20 Mar 5:40 PM
Of either gender
Do you know of any Demo who is not a scoundrel carrying bad baggage?
conservative-demo Wed 20 Mar 5:54 PM
laughs....
I don’t limit it to Dems….plenty of R’s and I’s too.
It is all equal opportunity with me. Men AND women. As an idealist I am always hoping for more, but disappointed often.
One learns we don’t live in perfection. I am clearly reminded every day looking in the mirror for the first time.
mirage Wed 20 Mar 5:59 PM