The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf) show 666,279 active no-party voters statewide, 620,868 active Republicans, and 602,636 active Democrats. That represents slightly larger gains for Democrats than Republicans since the beginning of August. After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district.
Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread.
The Rothenberg Political Report’s latest rankings of competitive House districts does not include the IA-01 race between incumbent Bruce Braley and challenger Ben Lange. Rothenberg considers the IA-02 contest between incumbent Dave Loebsack and challenger John Archer to be “Democrat favored.” He puts the the “Toss-up/tilt Republican” label on both the IA-03 clash of incumbents Leonard Boswell and Tom Latham and the IA-04 race between incumbent Steve King and challenger Christie Vilsack. Although I haven’t seen internal polling from any of the Congressional races, I doubt that Vilsack has as good a chance of winning as Boswell. True, Boswell can’t keep pace with Latham’s fundraising. But he is an incumbent who’s represented most of the counties in IA-03 before and has outperformed the top of the Democratic ticket in previous presidential elections. He also faces a much smaller GOP voter registration advantage in his district, as you can see below.
Active voter registration numbers as of September 2012
IA-01
| County | Democrats | Republicans | no-party voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allamakee | 2,188 | 4,338 | 3,075 |
| Benton | 4,707 | 5,093 | 7,289 |
| Black Hawk | 26,854 | 20,008 | 28,713 |
| Bremer | 3,660 | 5,014 | 6,944 |
| Buchanan | 3,936 | 3,214 | 6,175 |
| Clayton | 3,318 | 3,205 | 4,537 |
| Delaware | 2,563 | 3,854 | 4,644 |
| Dubuque | 24,750 | 14,607 | 21,837 |
| Fayette | 3,677 | 4,121 | 3,942 |
| Howard | 1,951 | 1,482 | 2,516 |
| Iowa | 2,795 | 3,714 | 4,716 |
| Jackson | 5,916 | 2,693 | 5,511 |
| Jones | 3,521 | 3,681 | 5,658 |
| Linn | 47,653 | 38,117 | 48,343 |
| Marshall | 7,416 | 7,962 | 9,077 |
| Mitchell | 1,820 | 2,557 | 2,646 |
| Poweshiek | 3,516 | 3,742 | 4,645 |
| Tama | 3,214 | 3,443 | 4,208 |
| Winnishiek | 3,310 | 4,398 | 4,568 |
| Worth | 1,585 | 1,801 | 1,974 |
| total | 158,350 | 137,044 | 181,018 |
IA-02
| County | Democrats | Republicans | no-party voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Appanoose | 2,714 | 2,926 | 3,014 |
| Cedar | 3,128 | 3,646 | 4,445 |
| Clarke | 1,632 | 1,811 | 2,176 |
| Clinton | 10,894 | 7,361 | 12,688 |
| Davis | 1,952 | 1,522 | 1,380 |
| Decatur | 1,721 | 1,784 | 1,759 |
| Des Moines | 11,380 | 6,104 | 8,026 |
| Henry | 2,966 | 5,409 | 4,808 |
| Jasper | 8,695 | 7,207 | 7,258 |
| Jefferson | 3,190 | 3,600 | 3,286 |
| Johnson | 36,846 | 17,756 | 28,083 |
| Keokuk | 2,352 | 2,331 | 2,228 |
| Lee | 9,958 | 4,328 | 7,989 |
| Louisa | 1,833 | 2,511 | 2,541 |
| Lucas | 1,411 | 2,103 | 2,020 |
| Mahaska | 3,030 | 5,882 | 4,714 |
| Marion | 5,430 | 9,052 | 6,891 |
| Monroe | 1,767 | 1,497 | 1,438 |
| Muscatine | 7,655 | 8,277 | 10,233 |
| Scott | 33,362 | 29,816 | 43,073 |
| Van Buren | 1,082 | 2,218 | 1,611 |
| Wapello | 9,481 | 5,279 | 6,677 |
| Washington | 2,924 | 5,808 | 4,708 |
| Wayne | 1,011 | 1,362 | 1,100 |
| total | 166,414 | 139,590 | 172,146 |
IA-03
| County | Democrats | Republicans | no-party voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adair | 1,124 | 2,023 | 1,943 |
| Adams | 696 | 958 | 1,127 |
| Cass | 1,613 | 4,902 | 3,005 |
| Dallas | 9,677 | 15,704 | 15,996 |
| Fremont | 1,334 | 2,194 | 1,824 |
| Guthrie | 2,028 | 2,744 | 2,763 |
| Madison | 3,018 | 3,974 | 3,702 |
| Mills | 1,900 | 4,764 | 3,026 |
| Montgomery | 1,063 | 3,947 | 1,869 |
| Page | 1,632 | 4,410 | 3,495 |
| Polk | 97,686 | 80,704 | 72,936 |
| Pottawattamie | 15,711 | 20,941 | 17,289 |
| Ringgold | 887 | 1,483 | 704 |
| Taylor | 794 | 1,990 | 1,313 |
| Union | 1,738 | 2,840 | 2,869 |
| Warren | 9,714 | 10,488 | 10,017 |
| total | 150,615 | 164,066 | 143,878 |
IA-04
| County | Democrats | Republicans | no-party voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Audubon | 1,322 | 1,608 | 1,355 |
| Boone | 5,276 | 5,577 | 6,425 |
| Buena Vista | 2,804 | 3,925 | 4,429 |
| Butler | 1,734 | 4,579 | 3,129 |
| Calhoun | 1,429 | 2,371 | 2,668 |
| Carroll | 4,197 | 4,010 | 6,210 |
| Cerro Gordo | 9,602 | 8,091 | 12,387 |
| Cherokee | 2,035 | 3,176 | 3,205 |
| Chickasaw | 2,988 | 2,210 | 3,613 |
| Clay | 2,626 | 4,566 | 4,321 |
| Crawford | 2,647 | 3,114 | 3,372 |
| Dickinson | 2,656 | 5,286 | 4,601 |
| Emmet | 2,225 | 1,702 | 3,103 |
| Floyd | 3,084 | 2,724 | 4,507 |
| Franklin | 1,242 | 3,107 | 2,242 |
| Greene | 2,044 | 2,142 | 2,241 |
| Grundy | 1,463 | 4,098 | 2,948 |
| Hamilton | 2,766 | 3,594 | 3,661 |
| Hancock | 1,589 | 3,302 | 2,897 |
| Hardin | 2,655 | 4,653 | 3,838 |
| Harrison | 2,487 | 3,498 | 2,417 |
| Humboldt | 1,371 | 2,496 | 2,429 |
| Ida | 963 | 2,168 | 1,891 |
| Kossuth | 3,514 | 3,415 | 4,125 |
| Lyon | 904 | 5,392 | 1,660 |
| Monona | 2,111 | 1,901 | 2,389 |
| O’Brien | 1,358 | 5,258 | 2,729 |
| Osceola | 515 | 2,604 | 1,062 |
| Palo Alto | 2,434 | 1,570 | 2,126 |
| Plymouth | 3,329 | 7,898 | 5,705 |
| Pocahontas | 1,125 | 1,734 | 2,179 |
| Sac | 1,365 | 3,094 | 2,541 |
| Shelby | 2,068 | 3,734 | 2,856 |
| Sioux | 1,576 | 14,263 | 3,509 |
| Story | 15,267 | 15,053 | 18,311 |
| Webster | 8,756 | 6,841 | 8,348 |
| Winnebago | 1,561 | 3,042 | 2,573 |
| Woodbury | 18,255 | 18,858 | 18,653 |
| Wright | 1,914 | 3,514 | 2,582 |
| total | 127,257 | 180,168 | 169,237 |
1 Comment
kind of a no-brainer
largest % increase in Dem registration (Aug-Sept):
1. Story
2. Poweshiek
3. Johnson
largest % increase in NP registration:
1. Story
2. Shelby
3. Johnson
Student registration + a stealth move in Shelby which added 88 NP to 2768 registered. As it turns out, Shelby also suffered the largest % decrease in GOP registration, so …
The GOP “gains” came from:
1. Johnson
2. Story
3. Dallas
Some student registration & prolly some eligible high schoolers in a GOP stronghold.
albert Wed 5 Sep 10:07 AM