Representative Bruce Braley’s re-election campaign called attention yesterday to the political composition of Iowa’s new first Congressional district and to Ben Lange’s underwhelming performance in the IA-01 primary. Lange’s campaign responded with a less-than-convincing case for the GOP nominee’s strong prospects of beating the three-term Democratic incumbent this November.
Lange was the overwhelming favorite going into Tuesday’s primary. The National Republican Congressional Committee favored his candidacy. He had a long list of prominent endorsers, including current and former state legislators in the district. He had name recognition from his 2010 campaign against Braley. He had raised a lot more money than his primary rival, businessman Rod Blum of Dubuque. Blum had to settle for endorsements by relatively obscure tea party activists, former Congressional candidates and Ron Paul supporters.
Lange didn’t appear to feel threatened by Blum. His campaign’s press releases confidently described the large organization he was building. He traveled the whole district, visiting each of the 20 counties multiple times. He started running radio advertising relatively late, during the second week of May. I am not aware of any Lange campaign spending on television yet this year.
Blum campaigned actively around the district too, visiting lots of local Republican Party events and county central committee meetings. To my knowledge, he did not run radio or television advertising before the primary, though I’m not sure how he used the roughly $50,000 available for him to spend as of May 16. (Blum’s campaign reported about $60,000 cash on hand at that time, but $10,000 he had raised early was restricted for use during the general election period.)
In that context, Lange’s victory by a 53.1 percent to 46.4 percent margin on June 5 looks unimpressive. The Iowa Secretary of State’s Office posted full IA-01 primary results by county here. Lange carried 14 of the 20 counties in the new district: Allamakee, Benton, Black Hawk (Waterloo/Cedar Falls area), Bremer, Buchanan, Delaware, Fayette, Howard, Iowa, Jackson, Jones, Poweshiek, Tama, and Winneshiek counties–some by a little, some by a lot. But Blum carried Linn (Cedar Rapids area), the most populous new county in the district. He also carried Dubuque, Clayton, Marshall, Mitchell, and Worth counties.
Braley’s campaign highlighted Lange’s weakness in a memo sent to the media on June 6. I enclose the full text. (I had to reformat the tables, because they weren’t coming through.)
BACKGROUND MEMO
TO: Iowa Reporters and Interested Parties
FR: Molly Scherrman, Senior Advisor, Braley for Congress
SUBJ: Reality Check: Three Strikes Against Ben Lange’s Electability Spin
—————————–
With the 2012 Iowa Primary Election results in and the post-game coverage beginning, it’s important to take a deep breath and look carefully at the facts before buying into the furious Republican spin.
Here’s the bottom line for IA-01: it’s hard to imagine a better outcome for Representative Bruce Braley than a re-run against perennial GOP candidate Ben Lange (career election batting average: .000)
In 2010, in the most favorable political climate for Republican candidates in a generation (possibly ever) and after outside groups like the American Future Fund, funded by the Koch brothers, spent nearly $2.5 million trying to tear Bruce down, Lange still fell short.
Now, Braley is matched up against the same candidate in a climate that is more favorable to Democrats and in a district that is more Democratic. Furthermore, the GOP primary results have exposed deep-seated fundamental problems for Lange in the new district.
Without further ado, here are the three strikes against Ben Lange’s electability argument that demonstrate why Bruce Braley was actually the biggest winner in the Iowa Primary Election last night:
Strike 1: Redistricting Has Made the New First Congressional District More Democratic.
The new First District is actually more Democratic than the old First District in terms of past election performance, a more telling metric than simple party registration. For example, in the past two presidential elections, the Democratic candidate has performed more strongly in the counties making up the new First District than in counties making up the old First District. In the 2010 Governor’s race, the Democratic candidate would have performed a whopping 1.5 percent more strongly in the new First District.
Election Results 2008 President 2004 President 2010 Governor Old CD-1 New CD-1 Old CD-1 New CD-1 Old New Dem Candidate 57.01% 57.44% 52.84% 53.09% 46.55% 47.09% GOP Candidate 41.30% 40.65% 46.36% 46.10% 49.91% 49.92% Dem-GOP Margin 15.71% 16.79% 6.48% 6.98% -3.36% -1.93% Dem Improvement 1.08% 0.50% 1.43% Strike 2: Primary Results Have Exposed Significant Lange Weakness in Counties New to First District.
After touting a supposedly strong campaign operation, Lange staggered across the finish line last night, barely eking out a victory against an unknown primary opponent. The primary election results have exposed some facts that throw cold water on Lange’s electability argument:
• Lange lost three of the new First District’s four largest counties last night – Linn, Dubuque, and Marshall – winning in only Black Hawk County. In a general election, Black Hawk County (where Braley has lived for over 25 years) is a Braley stronghold.
• Lange lost the two largest counties added to the reconfigured First District (Linn and Marshall). A whopping 64 percent of the total number of new voters added to the First District after redistricting live in these two counties alone.
Strike 3: Lange Still Lost in 2010 Despite Millions Spent by AFF and a GOP-Friendly Climate.
Iowans saw an unprecedented level of outside spending on negative TV ads aimed at influencing their votes in the 2010 cycle. In the First District, most of that spending came care of the American Future Fund, a group with secret donors that is closely tied to the conservative billionaire Koch brothers. The election was one of the strongest performances by GOP candidates ever, with Republicans gaining a net of 64 seats in the US House.
Yet Ben Lange still fell short against Braley, even with the political winds gusting at his back and even after his campaign affiliates outspent Braley.
Spending Against Braley – 2010 Cycle Spending Amount Notes AFF TV $1,330,886 AFF Auto Calls $7,485 AFF Internet Ads $7,500 estimated AFF Mail $400,000 estimated AFF Radio $17,800 AFF TV and Radio Production $52,822 AFF Walk Piece $10,000 estimated US Chamber TV $232,000 Lange TV $223,908 NRA Mail $30,000 estimated Right to Life Auto Calls and Mail $33,000 estimated Super PAC TV $110,945 TOTAL $2,456,346 …Three Strikes and Ben’s Out.
Note: both the old IA-01 and the new IA-01 have a partisan voting index of approximately D+5, meaning that the electorate there voted about 5 points more Democratic for the top of the ticket in 2008 and 2010 than voters did nationwide. Braley’s campaign is emphasizing small improvements: compared to voters in the old IA-01 counties, about a half a percent more voters in the new IA-01 supported President Barack Obama in 2008 and Governor Chet Culver in 2010.
Ben Lange’s campaign responded to the Braley spin with this statement, released last night.
Braley Deceives the Press on 1st Day of General Election, Lange Will Shoot it Straight
CLICK HERE FOR IA-01 FACT SHEET
INDEPENDENCE, IA – In a background memo distributed to members of the press today, the Braley campaign argued that the new IA-01 is more Democratic than the old IA-01 by citing to the fact that a Republican governor won the new district in 2010! Braley also concealed from the press prior congressional race performance, while failing to include significant Republican registration gains.
1. Braley’s own memo cites a Republican governor’s victory in IA-01 as evidence the district is more Democratic!
Braley’s memo states: “In the 2010 Governor’s race, the Democratic candidate would have performed a whopping 1.5 percent more strongly in the new First District.” But the following table included in the memo conclusively shows Gov. Branstad winning the new IA-01 by 2 percentage points!
Election Results 2008 President 2004 President 2010 Governor Old CD-1 New CD-1 Old CD-1 New CD-1 Old New Dem Candidate 57.01% 57.44% 52.84% 53.09% 46.55% 47.09% GOP Candidate 41.30% 40.65% 46.36% 46.10% 49.91% 49.92 Dem-GOP Margin 15.71% 16.79% 6.48% 6.98% -3.36% -1.93% Dem Improvement 1.08% 0.50% 1.43% In other words, Braley is arguing that Gov. Culver would have lost less bad in the new IA-01 than the old IA-01 and from this Braley would like members of the press to believe the new district is more favorable to Democrats?
2. Braley conceals past performance for the very office he is running for — Congress!
Braley’s memo states: “Redistricting Has Made the New First Congressional District More Democratic.” As evidence, congressional candidate Bruce Braley cherry picked two prior presidential races and one governor’s race, while not addressing the key data point for his race — prior congressional results!
Why would Braley conceal from the press prior performance by congressional candidates in IA-01? Because prior congressional races conclusively demonstrate that Republican congressional candidates outperform their Democratic counterparts.
The fact is Republican congressional candidates have outperformed Democratic candidates 51.18% to 46.27% in competitive congressional elections during presidential election cycles in the new IA-01. Even in non-competitive elections, Republican congressional candidates have outperformed Democratic candidates 49.51% to 48.09%.
3. Braley brushes off significant Republican registration gains and Democratic registration losses!
What Braley concealed from the press today is that the voter registration statistics in the new IA-01 are significantly more favorable to a Republican congressional candidate than the old IA-01. Democrats maintained a 8.24% registration advantage over Republicans in the old IA-01. This Democratic registration advantage is cut nearly in half to 4.53% in the new IA-01.
The short-term voter registration trends in the new IA-01 also give a Republican congressional candidate an edge heading into the general election. The short-term voter registration trends in the new IA-01 reveal that Democrats have lost 17,248 registered voters compared with just 2,028 for Republicans in the new IA-01, resulting in a net gain for Republicans of 2.81%.
Of particular concern for Democrats are the short-term voter registration trends in the three largest metro areas in IA-01, including Linn County (Reps +1.5%/Dems – 1.88%), Black Hawk County (Reps +1.28%/Dems – 1.30%), and Dubuque County: Reps 1.01%/Dems – 1.68%).
About
Ben Lange is a new breed of political leader with the guts to put principle before party. He grew up in a working class family in Quasqueton, IA, and was the first in his family to earn a four-year college degree. He is a faithful husband and loving dad to three little girls. In 2010 he was the Republican nominee for U.S. Congress in the old IA-01. Despite being outspent by Bruce Braley’s campaign committee nearly 5 to 1, he held Braley to 48.47% of the vote. In 2012, as a result of redistricting, the new IA-01 is more favorable to Republican candidates. The Democratic voter registration advantage has been cut nearly in half and Republican congressional candidates have historically won the new district during presidential cycles. The race will be more akin to an open seat race than a challenger race as Braley represents less than half the counties in the new district. Lange has already built a broad coalition of support consisting of activists, business leaders, elected officials, college leaders, and community leaders across the district. Lange’s primary election will be held Tuesday, June 5th.
I’m not sure whether Lange’s campaign staff understand that voter support for the top of each party’s ticket is the standard way to measure the partisan lean of a Congressional district. Chet Culver lost the 2010 governor’s election by 10 points. It supports the Braley campaign’s point to show that Culver would have lost “less bad [sic]” to Branstad in the old IA-01 counties, and would have lost by an even smaller margin in the new IA-01 counties.
Lange makes a big deal out of strong Republican Congressional candidate performance in the IA-01 counties, but during the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, Jim Nussle was the Republican incumbent in IA-01. Democrats nominated candidates against him but did not target his district and were not competitive with the House Budget subcommittee chairman in spending. Including Nussle’s share of the vote in 2000 and 2004 makes counties like Black Hawk, Dubuque, and Jackson appear more favorable to Republicans in Lange’s “raw data” (pdf) than they are likely to be this November.
In addition, several of the new IA-01 counties were in Tom Latham’s district during the past decade. Latham crushed his Democratic opponents in IA-04 in 2004 and 2008, which makes counties like Allamakee, Winneshiek, Mitchell, Marshall, and Worth look a lot more Republican in Lange’s “raw data” (pdf) than they are likely to be this November. A House Appropriations Committee member’s convincing victories over underfunded Democratic challengers are hardly comparable to Lange’s position as a Republican running against a Democratic incumbent.
I enclose the text of Lange’s “fact sheet,” which further confuses the issue:
IOWA’S NEW 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT IS MORE FAVORABLE TO A REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE THAN THE OLD 1ST DISTRICT BASED ON VOTER REGISTRATION STATISTICS AND HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE.
1. Republican congressional candidates have outperformed Democratic candidates by nearly 5 points in competitive congressional elections during presidential cycles in the new IA-01.
• Republican congressional candidates have outperformed Democratic candidates 51.18% to 46.27% in competitive congressional elections
during presidential election cycles in the new IA-01.2. Republican congressional candidates have also outperformed Democratic candidates in all congressional elections during presidential cycles in the new IA-01.*
• Republican congressional candidates have outperformed Democratic candidates 49.51% to 48.09% in all (competitive and non-competitive) congressional elections during presidential election cycles in the new IA-01.
3. Voter registration statistics in the new IA-01 are more favorable to a Republican congressional candidate than the old IA-01.
• Democrats maintained a 8.24% registration advantage over Republicans in the old IA-01. This Democratic registration advantage is cut nearly in half to 4.53% in the new IA-01.
• Republican registration gains of this magnitude are particularly notable because Ben Lange lost to Bruce Braley in 2010 by a mere 1.95%, the closest of any Republican congressional challenger in Iowa.
4. The short-term voter registration trends in the new IA-01 give a Republican congressional candidate an edge heading into the general election.
• The short-term voter registration trends in the new IA-01 reveal that Democrats have lost 17,248 registered voters compared with just 2,028
for Republicans in the new IA-01, resulting in a net gain for Republicans of 2.81%.• Of particular concern for Democrats are the short-term voter registration trends in the three largest metro areas in IA-01, including Linn County (Reps +1.5%/Dems – 1.88%), Black Hawk County (Reps +1.28%/Dems – 1.30%), and Dubuque County: Reps 1.01%/Dems – 1.68%).
5. The congressional ground game in IA-01 will be more akin to an open-seat than a challenger race.
• Bruce Braley represents only 9 of the 20 counties in the new IA-01, less than half of the new district.
• This is particularly notable because there will not be an incumbent on the ballot in more than half the counties in in the new IA-01, and a Republican congressman currently represents 45% of the remaining counties, making this election more akin to an open seat race than a challenger race.
Braley’s staff may be trying to make too much of small shifts in voter performance, but Lange’s staff are stretching reality a lot more here. Democrats still outnumber Republicans in the new IA-01, even though Republicans have made voter registration gains, in part thanks to the competitive Iowa caucuses.
While Braley’s name has not been on the ballot before in more than half the new IA-01 counties, the fact remains that he is an incumbent. This campaign will not resemble an open-seat race, where neither candidate has district-wide name recognition. Braley has far more money to spend during the next five months. His actions as a sitting member of Congress will receive more media attention than Lange’s campaign events. Braley has traveled throughout the new IA-01 this year, and he grew up in Poweshiek, one of the counties that’s supposedly “new” to him.
Braley came out of the 2010 race shaken up, no question about that. The guy who founded a House Populist Caucus in 2009 began sounding a lot more like a deficit hawk in 2010 and 2011. As Lange prepared to make the federal deficit the defining issue of his 2012 campaign, Braley protected his flank by endorsing a version of a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget. He is taking Lange’s challenge more seriously now than he did during the summer of 2010.
Still, no matter how you slice it, a Republican challenger who couldn’t defeat a Democratic incumbent during the immense GOP landslide of 2010 is not well-positioned to defeat the same Democratic incumbent in a presidential election year.
Any comments about the IA-01 race are welcome in this thread.
P.S. Free advice for Lange’s staff: next time you copy and paste the “about” paragraph into a press release, remove the part about when the primary election will be held.