Crossroads GPS, the super-PAC headed by Republican strategist Karl Rove, is going up on the air today in Iowa and nine other states as part of a $25 million advertising campaign over the next month. The 60-second negative spot about President Barack Obama is after the jump, along with an annotated transcript.

Crossroads GPS is running “Obama’s Promise” in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Republican nominee Mitt Romney will need to carry at least four or five of those states in order to win 270 electoral votes this November.

My transcript:

Male voice-over: President Obama’s agenda promised so much. [View of tablet computer with picture of Obama and words PRESIDENT OBAMA’S AGENDA PROMISED SO MUCH. A man’s finger goes to click an icon on the screen.]

Clip of Obama speaking: We must help the millions of homeowners who are facing foreclosure. [Next to Obama speaking, these words appear on screen: OBAMA’S PROMISE “…We must HELP the millions of HOMEOWNERS … FACING FORECLOSURE…” Sen. Barack Obama, Remarks in Raleigh, NC, 6/9/08]

Voice-over: Promise broken. One in five mortgages are still underwater. [Sound of breaking glass, cracks appear on tablet computer screen. New photo of Obama appears, next to words OBAMA’S BROKEN PROMISE 1 IN 5 HOME MORTGAGES STILL UNDER WATER “Experts Now Contend” Obama’s Housing Plan “Has Done More Harm Than Good.” The New York Times, 1/1/10; finger sweeps across tablet, changing image to a new photo next to the words PRESIDENT OBAMA’S AGENDA PROMISED SO MUCH. Finger touches a different icon.]

Clip of Obama speaking: If you are a family making less than 250 thousand dollars a year, you will not see your taxes go up. [Cracks still visible on computer screen. Next to the video, words on screen OBAMA’S PROMISE “…If you are a family making less than $250,000 a year, YOU WILL NOT SEE YOUR TAXES GO UP.” Sen. Barack Obama, Speech in Springfield, MO 7/30/08]

Voice-over: Broken. Obamacare raises 18 different taxes. [More breaking glass sounds, cracks still visible on computer screen, different photo of Obama next to words OBAMA’S BROKEN PROMISE OBAMACARE RAISES 18 DIFFERENT TAXES $503B between 2010 and 2019. The Heritage Foundation, 1/20/11. Man’s finger sweeps across the screen, changing image to a new photo next to the words PRESIDENT OBAMA’S AGENDA PROMISED SO MUCH. Finger touches a different icon.]

Clip of Obama speaking: If you like your health care plan, you’ll be able to keep your health care plan. [screen still looks cracked, Words next to footage of the president: OBAMA’S PROMISE “…LIKE YOUR HEALTH CARE plan, you’ll be able to KEEP YOUR HEALTH CARE…” Pres. Barack Obama, Remarks at the Annual Conference of the American Medical Association, Chicago IL, 6/15/09]

Voice-over: Broken. Millions could lose their health care coverage and could be forced into a government pool. [More breaking glass sound, more cracks appear on tablet screen. Words next to photo of president: OBAMA’S BROKEN PROMISE MILLIONS COULD LOSE THEIR HEALTH CARE “As Many as 20 Million Americans Could Lose Their Employer-Provided Healthcare Because of President Obama’s Healthcare Reform Law…” The Hill’s “Health Watch,” 3/15/12. Man’s finger sweeps across screen, changing image back to PRESIDENT OBAMA’S AGENDA PROMISED SO MUCH. Finger touches a different icon.

Clip of Obama speaking: Today I’m pledging to cut the deficit we inherited in half by the end of my first term in office. [Words next to footage: OBAMA’S PROMISE “….Today I’m pledging to CUT THE DEFICIT we inherited BY HALF by the end of my first term…” Pres. Barack Obama, Remarks at the Fiscal Responsibility Summit, 2/23/09]

Voice-over: Broken, because he hasn’t even come close. [More breaking glass sounds and cracks on screen, words OBAMA’S BROKEN PROMISE HE HASN’T EVEN COME CLOSE “President Obama’s Pledge To Cut The Deficit In Half By The End Of His First Term Will Fall Short…” USA Today, 2/1/12]

We need solutions, not just promises. [New photo of Obama next to words We need SOLUTIONS, not just PROMISES.]

Tell president Obama to cut the deficit and support the New Majority Agenda at NewMajorityAgenda.org. [Words on screen Tell President Obama to CUT THE DEFICIT and support the NEW MAJORITY AGENDA Visit www.NewMajorityAgenda.org/deficit to learn what you can do. PAID FOR BY CROSSROADS GRASSROOTS POLICY STRATEGIES

I am tired of these canned political voice-overs. I don’t find the ad script or visuals memorable, and I suspect it will only reinforce viewers’ existing views of Obama, rather than change anyone’s mind. My main question is, what “government pool” are they talking about? Most Americans who lose their health insurance aren’t going to have access to any new “government pool.”

Brian Montopoli of CBS News did more fact-checking on the latest Crossroads ad.

The first charge involves Mr. Obama’s statement that “we must help millions of homeowners facing foreclosure.” The ad then says that one in five mortgages is now underwater. But that doesn’t actually counter the president’s statement: Just because some homeowners are underwater does not mean that others have not gotten help. […]

The second charge involves Mr. Obama’s statement that he wouldn’t raise taxes on those making less than $250,000. Whether he broke this promise depends on how you look at it. Some people making below that threshold have seen some taxes go up if they use tobacco products or tanning beds, both of which have been subject to increased taxes under the president.

But Mr. Obama has not signed an across-the-board tax increase. In fact, he’s signed into law tax reductions for the vast majority of Americans through the payroll tax cut and other measures. […]

The third charge is that the president said if you like your health care plan, you can keep it. To suggest this is false, the ad quotes a story that it quotes as saying “as many as 20 million Americans could lose their employer-provided coverage because of President Obama’s healthcare reform law.”

The story, from The Hill, does indeed make that claim, which comes from a report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. But it continues: “The figure represents the worst-case scenario, CBO says, and the law could just as well increase the number of people with employer-based coverage by 3 million in 2019.” Since the major provisions of the health care law have yet to kick in, it’s impossible to know how this will play out. But the implication that Mr. Obama has already broken that promise is decidedly premature.

The fourth and final charge in the ad is the only one that is unassailable. Mr. Obama pledged to cut the deficit in half by the end of his first term. As the ad notes, he hasn’t kept that promise.

Obama’s campaign released a long rebuttal to the Crossroads ad, containing lots of supporting links and news reports. I summarize the key points as follows:

* Obama’s budget would “cut the deficit by more than $4 trillion over the next decade,” bring the federal deficit below 3 percent of U.S. GDP, and “bring dis­cretionary spending to its lowest level as a share of the economy since Dwight D. Eisenhower sat in the Oval Office.” (How sad that a Democratic president considers that something to brag about.)

* Most of the cumulative federal deficits are George W. Bush’s fault. The Bush tax cuts, overseas wars, and domestic spending such as Medicare Part D account for 59 percent of the “the shift from surpluses to deficits.” Economic and demographic realities accounted for 29 percent of the shift, while Obama policies such as the 2009 stimulus package account for only 12 percent.

* Obama’s budget would keep discretionary spending unchanged  in the next fiscal year while making room for more investments in infrastructure, education, and manufacturing.

* Obama has signed 18 tax cuts for small businesses and cut taxes for middle class families to levels “near historic lows not seen since the 1950s.” Also, a typical family making $50,000 a year has seen their taxes cut by $3,600 during President Obama’s first term in office.” Furthermore, Obama fought to extend the payroll tax cut.

* While Mitt Romney was governor of Massachusetts, that state’s spending and debt level increased. Government job growth increased much faster than private sector job growth during Romney’s tenure.

* Romney raised taxes in Massachusetts by more than $700 million, while also raising fees and closing up to $1.5 billion in corporate loopholes. (Since when does a Democratic president think it’s bad to close corporate loopholes?)

* While Romney was governor, the per capita tax burden in Massachusetts increased significantly.

* Romney would add trillions to the federal deficit by making the Bush tax cuts for the highest income levels permanent. (I stand by my prediction that Obama will one day sign another extension of those tax cuts for all income levels.)

Any comments about the presidential campaign are welcome in this thread.

I’m not paying much attention to the national opinion polls at this point, but I noticed that the latest CBS/New York Times poll has Romney leading Obama by 46 percent to 43 percent, while the latest Fox News poll has Obama leading Romney by 46 percent to 39 percent. CBS/NYT has Romney ahead of Obama by two points among female respondents, whereas Fox has Obama leading Romney by 22 points among women. The real picture of the electorate probably lies somewhere in between these polls.

UPDATE: PolitiFact analyzed one of the claims in this commercial.

The ad makes a sweeping claim about taxes that suggests broad increases. It says that the health care law raised 18 different taxes, citing an analysis from the Heritage Foundation.

We know from our previous research on the law that it does in fact raise taxes. But when we looked at the issue in January 2011, we found only 13 measures that could reasonably be considered tax increases. (The other items were mostly new regulations.)

Many of those taxes are aimed at health insurance companies, drug manufacturers, medical device makers or high earners, not people who make less than $250,000, as the ad says. (See our detailed list of taxes in the health care law.)

When we looked at the list with the Crossroads statement in mind, we found only five taxes that might apply to individuals making less than $250,000.

Those taxes include the following:

• Higher federal excise taxes on tobacco.

• A 10 percent excise tax on indoor tanning services.

• Limiting the amount taxpayers can deposit in flexible spending accounts to $2,500 a year. For people who use the accounts, this could increase their taxable income. This takes effect Jan. 1, 2013.

• Raising the 7.5 percent adjusted gross income floor for the medical expenses deduction to 10 percent. People who would have qualified for the deduction this year would pay more. This takes effect Jan. 1, 2013.  

• A 40 percent excise tax on employer-provided “Cadillac” health insurance plans costing more than $10,200 for individuals and $27,500 for families. This takes effect Jan. 1, 2018. […]

The Crossroads ad says Obama “promised” families making less than $250,000 a year would not see taxes go up, but “Obamacare raises 18 different taxes.”

Obama has increased a few taxes — on tobacco and tanning — that hit people making less than $250,000. But he also gets credit for tax breaks for workers, most notably a payroll tax holiday that is still in effect.

The Crossroads ad wrongly implies that people of modest means are getting hit with 18 tax increases because of the health care law. In fact, most of the taxes in the health care law are on high-income individuals or the health care industry. We rate their statement Mostly False.  

SECOND UPDATE: Factcheck.org called tax hike claims in the “Promise” ad “almost entirely false” and highlighted many other deceptive statements.