After a few months of exploring a second run for Congress in Iowa’s first district, Republican Ben Lange has confirmed that he will soon make his candidacy official.
James Q. Lynch reports today that Lange will formally announce his candidacy in February.
“Throughout the exploratory process, I have kept an open mind and listened carefully to the feedback I received,” Lange said. “Our performance last cycle, when no gave us a shot, has instilled confidence in Iowans that this is a race that can be won.”
Lange, 32, notes that in 2010 as a first-time candidate, he had no money, no organization, no name ID and yet lost by just 2 percentage points.
“We have the benefit of certain advantages today that we did not enjoy last time,” Lange said.
For example, it took Lange until the summer of last cycle to raise the level of resources his committee has already secured this cycle.
Having the American Future Fund drop more than a million dollars on negative messages against Braley surely helped the 2010 challenger with no money, organization, or name recognition. Since American Future Fund head Nick Ryan grew up in northeast Iowa and ran campaigns for Braley’s predecessor in Congress, Jim Nussle, I expect the American Future Fund to be a significant outside spending force in the new IA-01 this year. On the down side for the eventual GOP nominee, turnout in a presidential year should be more favorable to Braley than it was in the 2010 Republican wave year.
The Lange for Congress website still has no content other than a “contribute!” button, a sign up form, and links to the candidate on Facebook and Twitter. Presumably that will be fleshed out with some policy information soon.
According to Lynch, Lange says he has raised about $120,000 for this 2012 campaign. I was unable to find his year-end disclosure form on the Federal Elections Commission website. (This report appears to be a final accounting of Lange’s fundraising from the 2010 election cycle, and this report covers money raised during the last six weeks of 2010.) Year-end 2011 reports are due on January 31, so Lange’s new campaign finance information may become available today or tomorrow on the FEC site.
None of Lange’s 2010 primary rivals raised a significant amount of money. To become the GOP nominee this year, Lange will have to get past Dubuque businessman Rod Blum, who has been campaigning around the district since announcing his campaign in October. (A third Republican candidate, Steve Rathje, decided against challenging Braley in December.)
Blum has already filed his year-end report for 2011. He raised $71,233.40 in campaign contributions, of which $22,288.40 came from the candidate himself and $48,945.00 came from other individuals. Blum has not raised any money from political parties or political action committees. Blum reported spending just $5,168.01, leaving $66,065.39 cash on hand as of December 31.
I do not see Braley’s new financial report on the FEC site yet. I will update this post later with details about the incumbent’s fundraising and cash on hand.
Later this week, Bleeding Heartland will post a detailed review of 2011 fundraising in all four Iowa Congressional districts.
UPDATE: Braley spent the morning of January 30 at Northview Middle School in Ankeny with Olympic gymnast Shawn Johnson and Iowa Middle School PE Teacher of the Year Jodi Larson. The event (outside IA-01) was designed to promote the Shawn Johnson Fitness for Life Act, legislation Braley has introduced that would create “a new grant program to fund the expansion of masters’ degree programs in physical education at 10 colleges and universities. The masters’ programs must emphasize the use of technology in PE teaching and innovative teaching practices.” Techniques developed by the University of Northern Iowa and the Grundy Center School District inspired the bill.
SECOND UPDATE: Shane Vander Hart posted about privacy concerns related to monitors used in the Grundy Center program. I am seeking comment from Braley about this issue.
THIRD UPDATE: Braley’s communications director Jeff Giertz responds,
Common sense and the same stringent standards applied to all student records should apply to data collected by high-tech PE equipment. Students should have a right to access and control the information collected, and be able to expect that their information is safeguarded and protected from unauthorized use, no matter how small the chance it is that the data collected may be abused.
21 Comments
I am mystified
What is Lange’s appeal? He was the ham sandwich in a GOP wave year. Now what?
I liked Miller-Meeks. I could understand why Zaun was popular. I was never able to figure out what Lange offered beyond not-incumbent colorless n00b w/o any obvious baggage. He claims to start this cycle with advantages (relative to 2010), but I think he’s lost his greatest advantage: political virgin status.
“Aw c’mon guys, just give me a chance!”
albert Mon 30 Jan 8:10 AM
Lange's a blank slate
Doesn’t create a strong impression, no red flags, good-looking family, generic message.
Blum expresses his opinion and isn’t afraid to go out on a limb, like saying run the post office like a real business. Could be appealing to primary voters, but all those newspaper columns could contain fodder for attacks.
desmoinesdem Mon 30 Jan 11:32 AM
$$$
I’d like to see a post about the Gronstal race. He’s got beaucoup bucks, and his GOP opponent a few hundy. Is the GOP candidate not really “the guy”? Someone else getting in? It is getting late.
I was expecting a battle royale, a million dollar race, but maybe MG has scared ’em off.
rockm Mon 30 Jan 8:23 AM
last time
the GOP hid like snakes in the grass on fundraising.
albert Mon 30 Jan 8:30 AM
true
but even Brent Siegrist admits Ringgenberg’s not known in Council Bluffs.
desmoinesdem Mon 30 Jan 11:27 AM
post in progress
I have no inside information, but based on the financial reports I assume a more credible GOP candidate will announce in Gronstal’s district before the filing deadline.
desmoinesdem Mon 30 Jan 9:11 AM
I don't worry about Gronstal
Here’s why. There is no strong political bias in Council Bluffs. It’s a fairly moderate area, although I know people in DSM, Iowa City don’t think so. What makes Gronstal look vulnerable is that as an incumbent in a leadership position, he “underperformed” at 55 during a Dem year. My opinion is that it’s just because it’s hard to run up totals in one direction or another in CB.
Consider that Romney won Council Bluffs + Carter Lake (Gronstal’s district), and the finish order was Romney-Paul-Santorum. There are plenty of GOP moderates as well as socons, libertarians, etc. Or look at the retention vote. Council Bluffs + Carter Lake voted to keep the judges. If you look precinct-by-precinct, you see that most are split, with a small edge more often to “YES.” Council Bluffs is kind of bipolar like that.
People in the area are socially conservative, but it’s not a top voting issue. If they didn’t send the judges packing in a GOP year, I don’t see them sending Gronstal packing over the issue, either. People can vent when he goes door-to-door.
My general impression is that these are not people bursting to “send a message.” Also, Omaha is the focus in the area, less so DSM and perhaps even Iowa. Nobody reads the Register. I knew that when DSM area legislators (Pearson, Massie) went out to CB after Election 2010, they’d get poor turnout.
Something “big” would have to happen for me to start worrying. This early out, I would expect Boswell/Latham to split CB and assume that Dems, from Obama on down, will have a sufficient presence to GOTV.
This district could easily become a Venus flytrap for the GOP. They need to find bigger issues or better, much better candidates before I even start paying attention.
albert Mon 30 Jan 12:38 PM
listening to Republicans talk
publicly about the race, they seem to be downplaying their prospects. Behn and Strawn look forward to replacing Gronstal one way or another, that is, maybe not by beating him but by winning the Senate majority so that he won’t be in charge anymore.
I think if they could recruit an outstanding candidate, they would put some muscle into this district, however. What they have now is not it.
desmoinesdem Tue 31 Jan 9:25 AM
on a hunch
I looked at CB vs precinct Windsor Heights 2, a temperate precinct where it’s hard to run up totals unless it’s a local favorite:
CB + Carter Lake
—————-
Romney 26
Paul 22
Santorum 21
Gingrich 19
Perry 9
Polk: WH2
—
Romney 26
Paul 23
Santorum 21
Gingrich 17
Perry 8
It won’t be easy to mount a unified effort against someone of Gronstal’s stature. They would need a candidate who is very well-known, extremely well-respected, and well-funded.
albert Mon 30 Jan 1:29 PM
Good analysis
But my impression early on was the GOP was pulling out all stops to get Gronstal out of there, meaning finding a good candidate and backing him or her with tons of money from the highest levels of the party, plus mounting attacks from outside groups standing in line to levy vicious attack ads. Of course, that would be independent of the candidate and there could be no coordination. That would be illegal. 🙂 You’d think that effort would be underway already. The GOP might have something up their sleeve, but it’s very quiet. As the cliche goes, a little TOO quiet.
In the interest of disclosure, I was thinking of sending G some money, but I don’t know that he needs my measly contribution. Look at his donor list…wow….there is big money from all over the country….you might as well buy every second of airtime you could get find right now, and tie it up. You could afford it.
rockm Mon 30 Jan 4:46 PM
agree
on the little too quiet, but until/when/if they unveil, I feel good about Gronstal.
albert Mon 30 Jan 5:27 PM
Gronstal should save his money
because if he doesn’t end up needing to use most of it for his own race, I guarantee it will be needed in a bunch of eastern Iowa Senate districts.
desmoinesdem Tue 31 Jan 9:22 AM
Update on the update
See?…that’s BB….running for Governor. There are four candidates running for Governor for the Dems – we’ll call them “The Gang of Four”. Known politicians. Bruce Braley and Rob Hogg are in there. Jack Hatch might be one. Not sure of the other. Joe Bolkom?
Outside The Gang – Fred Hubbell is thinking about it, but probably won’t. There is a female outside The Gang considering it, but probably won’t pull the trigger.
I apologize to Bleeding Heartland for going off topic.
rockm Mon 30 Jan 5:13 PM
if
Harkin and perhaps even Grassley aren’t going to budge, then BB has no option but to run for governor if he wants a statewide run. Hogg is credible. Hatch doesn’t strike me as a good candidate for gov.
albert Mon 30 Jan 5:30 PM
Harkin
I’m not for term limits, but I really kind of wanted Harkin to step down in 2014 in order to see what Bruce Braley was like as a statewide candidate. I think Braley is better suited for the U.S. Senate, just a feeling I have.
I hope whoever runs against Chuck/Pat/whoever in 2016 actually takes the gloves off and is ready to fight from the beginning of the campaign. I felt bad for Roxanne Conlin because she seemed to sort of get in the race as more of a favor to the Iowa Democratic Party than anything else and then she gets attacked by Tom Fiegen for not knowing enough about agriculture.
moderateiadem Mon 30 Jan 6:08 PM
I think Braley
is better suited as a senator as well.
I don’t see anyone challenging CG unless he’s obviously lost his marbles. He’s still going strong on his constituent service, and I think Iowans are very comfortable with his elder statesman presence, esp when times are turbulent. Based on his recent appearance on IPTV, he hasn’t ruled out 2016, so we’ll see.
Didn’t feel sorry for Conlin because she got back exactly what she put in. I feel sorry for people who contributed $$ for token opposition. Remember, people actually believed that Grassley was vulnerable due to his “pull the plug” comment and a few other bon mots. A few progressive groups took the opportunity to call him names while fundraising (which is why I’m skeptical about the same sort of effort in IA-04), and that was about it.
albert Mon 30 Jan 6:33 PM
Indeed
I know and to be honest I kind of enjoy Grassley’s statements on the Senate floor, they seem sincere. He calls his colleagues sissies on the Senate floor for opposing a ban on secret holds.
The truth also is that he is now within the moderate wing of the Senate GOP caucus because he is at least willing to fight for projects that he believes in and he is very good on consumer protection for a Republican.
moderateiadem Mon 30 Jan 6:47 PM
Still think
Grassley was vulnerable but the right candidate had to run and it wasn’t RBC. I wonder if Braley could’ve beaten him, or one of the Vilsacks? Although I too believe BB is destined for the US Senate, he’s a pretty young guy. He could run for Governor, win, and hit the Senate later. I think he could beat Branstad or anyone the GOP puts up in 2014. Rob Hogg is stumping the state on behalf of climate change. He’s good, but I worry about him being too closely identified with that issue, when it is down the list of concerns by Iowans, after jobs, taxes and education…the Farm Bureau would trash him, too.
rockm Mon 30 Jan 11:02 PM
there's a Dem primary
Rob Hogg is stumping the state on behalf of climate change. He’s good, but I worry about him being too closely identified with that issue, when it is down the list of concerns by Iowans, after jobs, taxes and education…the Farm Bureau would trash him, too.
to get through first …
albert Tue 31 Jan 8:09 AM
Yes, good point
rockm Tue 31 Jan 8:20 AM
no one
would have beaten Grassley in 2010.
If Harkin has told Braley he will run for another term in 2014, I could imagine Braley running for governor, but I see him as a much better fit for a statewide U.S. Senate race. I do think Grassley will retire in 2016, but Braley may not want to take that chance.
desmoinesdem Tue 31 Jan 9:21 AM