UPDATE: More recent absentee ballot numbers are here, and a precinct-level analysis of the early voting is here.

Democrat Liz Mathis continues to hold a significant lead in Iowa Senate district 18 early voting, judging from the latest absentee ballot numbers from the Linn County Auditor’s Elections Office.

At close of business on November 2, the Linn County Auditor had received 9,516 absentee ballot requests for the November 8 election. Residents of Senate district 18 requested 88.3 percent of that total (approximately 8,400 ballots). The rest of the ballots were sent to voters planning to participate in local elections elsewhere in Linn County.

Of the 9,516 ballots issued so far:

4,695 (49.3 percent) went to registered Democrats

2,486 (26.1 percent) went to Republicans

2,324 (24.4 percent) went to no-party voters

Eleven went to to voters with some other registration.

At the close of business on November 2, the Linn County Auditor’s office had received 6,498 absentee ballots for the November 8 election. That number includes people who voted early in person at the auditor’s office as well as those who filled out their absentee ballots at home. The returned ballots broke down as follows:

3,388 (52.1 percent) came from registered Democrats

1,735 (26.7 percent) came from Republicans

1,370 (21.1 percent) came from no-party voters

Five came from voters with some other party registration.

The Republicans will have a lot of ground to make up on election day, especially if Mathis is running even or ahead of Golding among no-party voters. Golding has to hope that Republicans are highly motivated to turn out next Tuesday, and that Mathis is primarily banking votes from Democrats who would have shown up on November 8 anyway.

The big question is what proportion of the electorate will vote early instead of waiting until election day? I don’t know the answer, but I took a few educated guesses about turnout numbers here.

Any comments or predictions about the Senate district 18 race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Bleeding Heartland user albert wrote a precinct-level analysis of the early voting numbers as of November 2.