Reagan Library GOP debate discussion thread

Eight Republican presidential candidates are debating this evening at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California. Texas Governor Rick Perry will be most closely watched tonight, because he hasn’t participated in any of the previous debates.

I am curious to see who tries to take Perry down a peg tonight. Representative Ron Paul is on the air in Iowa and New Hampshire with a television commercial hitting Perry, and the Reagan Library is a perfect backdrop for his message. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney just released a big jobs plan yesterday, so I wonder whether he will try to poke holes in Perry’s claim to be the country’s best job creator.

I’ll update this post with further thoughts on the debate after the jump. Meanwhile, use this thread to discuss tonight’s action or any developments in the presidential race.

The eight candidates on the stage: Texas Governor Rick Perry, Representatives Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum.

THURSDAY UPDATE: For those who missed all or part of the debate on television, the New York Times published the full transcript here.

I thought Romney had a very good debate. He sounded confident and kept focused on economic issues. He did a good job answering a question about relatively slow job growth in Massachusetts and got a couple of laughs at Rick Perry’s expense. For instance:

States are different. Texas is a great state. Texas has zero income tax. Texas has a right to work state, a Republican legislature, a Republican Supreme Court. Texas has a lot of oil and gas in the ground.

Those are wonderful things, but Governor Perry doesn’t believe that he created those things. If he tried to say that, well, it would be like Al Gore saying he invented the Internet. […]

I came into a state that was in real trouble — a huge budget gap, losing jobs every month. We turned it around. Three out of four years, we had unemployment rate below the national average, we ended up with 4.7 percent unemployment rate. I’m proud of what we were able to do in a tough situation.

Romney also pointed out that Perry’s two predecessors as governor of Texas oversaw even more job creation than Perry, which is accurate.

The Massachusetts health care reform Romney signed into law remains the biggest problem for him. It’s not that his answer to the question was bad or illogical, but Republicans are not going to trust anyone who passed something resembling Obamacare.

Rick Perry was the center of attention in his first debate. He didn’t make any big mistakes, so in that regard, you can call it a victory. I didn’t feel he presented himself as well as Romney overall, but some of his answers probably resonated with Republican voters, even if they made no sense. Case in point: Perry’s non-response to a question about Texas having the highest percentage of uninsured residents:

Governor Perry, you clearly don’t like the Massachusetts plan as an example for other states, but Massachusetts has nearly universal health insurance. It’s first in the country. In Texas, about a quarter of the people don’t have health insurance. That’s 50 out of 50, dead last. Sir, it’s pretty hard to defend dead last.

PERRY: Well, I’ll tell you what the people in the state of Texas don’t want: They don’t want a health care plan like what Governor Romney put in place in Massachusetts. What they would like to see is the federal government get out of their business.

For Medicaid, for instance — as a matter of fact, I bet Mitt and Jon would both agree — and I know Newt would, as well — Medicaid needs to be block-granted back to the states so that we can use the innovation in the states, come up with the best ways to deliver health care.

My wife is a nurse. And I’ll promise you, we understand that if we can get the federal government out of our business in the states when it comes to health care, we’ll come up with ways to deliver more health care to more people cheaper than what the federal government is mandating today with their strings attached, here’s how you do it, one-size-fits-all effort out of Washington, D.C.

That’s got to stop. And I’ll promise you: On day one, as the president of the United States, that executive order will be signed and Obamacare will be wiped out as much as it can be.

HARRIS: Governor, quick follow-up. Why are so many people in Texas uninsured?

PERRY: Well, bottom line is that we would not have that many people uninsured in the state of Texas if you didn’t have the federal government. We’ve had requests in for years at the Health and Human Services agencies to have that type of flexibility where we could have menus, where we could have co-pays, and the federal government refuses to give us that flexibility.

We know for a fact that, given that freedom, the states can do a better job of delivering health care. And you’ll see substantially more people not just in Texas, but all across the country have access to better health care.

I presume Perry would also blame the federal government for the fact that Texas had the second-highest hunger rate in the country from 2008 through 2010. It’s sad that his state’s low ranking in social services and education won’t hinder Perry’s standing with Republican voters at all.

Perry stuck with his claim that Social Security is a “Ponzi scheme. He is oblivious to the fact that Social Security is solvent for decades and would be solvent forever with only minor adjustments, like lifting the cap on income subject to the tax. In the post-debate spin cycle, Romney’s surrogates were pounding on the Social Security issues. It is their key to claiming Perry would lose a general election. Romney made that point during the debate:

ROMNEY: Well, the issue is not the funding of Social Security. We all agree and have for years that the funding program of Social Security is not working, and Congress has been raiding the dollars from Social Security to pay for annual government expenditures. That’s wrong. The funding, however, is not the issue.

The issue in the book “Fed Up,” Governor, is you say that by any measure, Social Security is a failure. You can’t say that to tens of millions of Americans who live on Social Security and those who have lived on it.

The governor says look, states ought to be able to opt out of Social Security. Our nominee has to be someone who isn’t committed to abolishing Social Security, but who is committed to saving Social Security.

We have always had, at the heart of our party, a recognition that we want to care for those in need, and our seniors have the need of Social Security. I will make sure that we keep the program and we make it financially secure. We save Social Security.

And under no circumstances would I ever say by any measure it’s a failure. It is working for millions of Americans, and I’ll keep it working for millions of Americans. And we’ve got to do that as a party.

The Perry moment that most grabbed my attention during the debate was when the audience cheered and applauded in the middle of Brian Williams’ question about the death penalty. Republicans loved hearing that Texas has more inmates on death row than any other state. The audience also loved it when Perry said he’s never worried that a single innocent person has been executed on his watch. He shouldn’t be so sure: he declined to stay the execution of at least one innocent man: Cameron Todd Willingham.

Ron Paul really went after Perry last night. He pointed out that while the Texas governor criticizes Romneycare now, Perry wrote a really fancy letter supporting Hillarycare in the 1990s. That led to this exchange in which I thought Paul explained well why he resigned from the Republican Party in 1987:

PERRY: I actually was nodding my head when he said that I wrote a letter to Hillary and we were hoping…

(CROSSTALK)

PERRY: … that she would be able to come up with something that would not leave the agriculture men and women — because I was the agriculture commissioner at that particular point in time. We had no idea it was going to be the monstrosity that’s known as Hillarycare.

Speaking of letters, I was more interested in the one that you wrote to Ronald Reagan back and said I’m going to quit the party because of the things you believe in.

PAUL: Oh, I need an answer on that.

(LAUGHTER)

(CROSSTALK)

HARRIS: You’ve got a 30-second rebuttal, Congressman.

(CROSSTALK)

PAUL: I strongly supported Ronald Reagan. I was one of four in Texas — one of four members of Congress that supported Reagan in ’76. And I supported him all along, and I supported his — his — all his issues and all his programs.

But in the 1980s, we spent too much, we taxed too much, we built up our deficits, and it was a bad scene. Therefore, I support the message of Ronald Reagan. The message was great. But the consequence, we have to be honest with ourselves. It was not all that great. Huge deficits during the 1980s, and that is what my criticism was for, not for Ronald Reagan’s message. His message is a great message.

Paul raised the issue of mandatory HPV vaccines for preteen girls, which Perry tried to enact by executive order in Texas. That issue doesn’t get a lot of media coverage, but it is highly salient among social conservatives and homeschoolers. Perry countered that the order he signed had a opt-out clause protecting parental rights, and that he was motivated by trying to reduce cancer cases. But he admitted that he had handled the issue the wrong way.

Where Paul seemed less successful to me was arguing against the minimum wage, or that we don’t need federal regulations on automobile safety because “the consumers of America are smart enough to decide what kind of car they can buy and whether it’s safe or not […].” Similarly, even in the Republican base I don’t know how many people would agree with Paul’s claim that we don’t need a Federal Emergency Management Agency to help communities recover from natural disasters. I didn’t understand Paul’s answer about his plan to abolish the TSA. I get that he doesn’t like how TSA agents pat people down at airports, but why does he assume security personnel hired by airlines wouldn’t do the same thing? And aren’t major airlines large bureaucracies too?

Michele Bachmann didn’t make any mistakes that I heard, but the moderators’ attention on Perry and Romney left her a little on the sidelines. With this answer, which struck me as highly effective, Bachmann staked a claim to being the most anti “Obamacare” candidate:

Congresswoman Bachmann, over to you. Of all of you on this stage, you’ve been very vocal about wanting less regulation in American life. Which current federal regulations have been prohibitive or damaging in terms of your own small business?

BACHMANN: Well, I think without a doubt, there’s two that you look to. First of all are the new regulations that are just being put into place with ObamaCare. As I go across the country and speak to small business people, men and women, they tell me ObamaCare is leading them to not create jobs. I spent three weekends going to restaurants, and I talked to business owners, said I have 60 people on my payroll, I have to let 10 go. At the same time, a 17-year-old girl came in and said, I’d like a job application for the summer.

He said, I’m sorry, dear, I’m not hiring this summer, I’m actually letting people go. ObamaCare is killing jobs. We know that from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. But I know it first-hand from speaking to people.

We see it this summer. There are 47 percent of African-American youth that are currently without jobs, 36 percent of Hispanic youth. I’m a mom. I’ve raised five biological kids and 23 foster kids in my home. One thing I know is that kids need jobs. And ObamaCare is clearly leading to job-killing regulations, not job-creating regulations.

In the context of the HPV vaccine, Bachmann depicted Perry’s action as a government intrusion on parents’ rights. That’s an issue she should raise while campaigning in Iowa. She sidestepped a question about whether she would try to deport all 11.5 million undocumented immigrants.

It didn’t help Bachmann when a panelist pivoted from her answer about energy policy to a question about whether it was “realistic” to promise $2 a gallon gasoline.

Speaking of Bachmann, her close friend Representative Steve King predicted yesterday that the shake-up on her campaign team will improve her retail politics:

“I know that she wants to spend all of her time out with real people, I do know that and I think now that you’ll see a change in the management of her campaign, you’re going to see a lot more of that,” King said. […]

“I’ve seen her do that on a number of occasions – she and Marcus both enjoy retail politics,” said King, whose relationship with Bachmann grew close after the Minnesotan was elected to Congress four years ago.

Asked about the criticism that Bachmann stays inside her bus when she arrives at events, making the crowd wait, King said bus time is used for radio interviews and debate prep.

“It’s not slacker time, this is real focus time, but it’s real important to be with real people most of the time,” he said.

Back to the Reagan Library debate: Rick Santorum didn’t get to answer many questions last night, but I thought he handled himself well when he did get a moment in the spotlight. He sounded compelling when he piled on against Perry regarding the HPV vaccine. He evoked Ronald Reagan in making the case against an isolationist foreign policy. Santorum strikes me as a solid fallback for Republicans who aren’t happy with the front-runners, although I don’t see how he can gain traction against the better-funded candidates.

Jon Huntsman didn’t make much of an impression, but I thought he was smart to take a question about China and pivot to jobs and economy:

Governor Huntsman, as you know, Governor Romney’s new economic plan calls for the U.S. government to officially label China a currency manipulator, But “The Wall Street Journal” editorial page says such a move would cause a trade war, perhaps.

You’re a former ambassador to China. You have served four U.S. presidents. In your view, what does Governor Romney not get about China?

HUNTSMAN: He doesn’t get the part that what will fix the U.S- China relationship, realistically, is fixing our core right here at home, because our core is weak, and it is broken, and we have no leverage at the negotiating table.

And I’d have to say, Mitt, now is not the time in a recession to enter a trade war. Ronald Reagan flew this plane. I was in China during the trip in 1984. He went on TV, he spoke to the Chinese people — I’d love to do that too, in Chinese itself — and he talked in optimistic, glowing terms.

And it reminds me about this, Ryan, we are the most blue sky, optimistic people on earth. We’re going to find solutions, and I have an offer for the two great governors over here.

And I hate to rain on the parade of the Lone Star governor, but as governor of Utah, we were the number one job creator in this country during my years of service. That was 5.9 percent when you were creating jobs at 4.9 percent.

And to my good friend, Mitt, 47 just ain’t going to cut it, my friend, not when you can be first. We’ve got to remember, that to beat President Obama, we have to have somebody who’s been in the private sector, understands the fragility of the free market system, has been a successful governor as it relates to job creation, and knows something about this world.

I’ve lived overseas four times, I’ve been an ambassador to my country three times, I think I understand that.

Herman Cain came across as irrelevant to last night’s conversation. In fairness to him, he didn’t get to answer many questions, but his tax proposals sound pie in the sky even compared to the other Republicans’ plans:

Here’s how I would fix this economy, first, eliminate the current tax code. It is a drain on entrepreneurs, it is the biggest barrier that’s holding this economy back, and what I would do is to propose a bold plan, which I have already released.

I call it my 9-9-9 economic growth plan. Throw out the current tax code, a 9 percent tax on corporate income, our 9 percent tax on personal income and a 9 percent national sales tax. If 10 percent is good enough for God, 9 percent ought to be good enough for the federal government. This will replace all federal income taxes. It’ll replace all federal income taxes.

It will also replace the payroll tax, so everybody gets some skin in the game. And it replaces the capital gains tax.

There is no way Cain’s numbers add up.

Newt Gingrich had some decent applause lines, but being the Republican primary’s leading media critic doesn’t make him any more relevant as a candidate. He did show some courage in defending the 1986 immigration reform law, which granted amnesty to some people who had entered the country illegally.

Final note: I didn’t notice this, but Eric Ostermeier counted all 24 Reagan references during the debate. Romney was the only candidate “who did not name drop Reagan.”

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