The National Republican Congressional Committee went up on cable television this week against Representative Dave Loebsack in Iowa’s new second district. I’ve posted the video and transcript after the jump. Be warned: you may wonder whether you’re watching a real Republican commercial or a Stephen Colbert parody.
My transcript:
[black and white footage of threatening storm clouds over a wooded landscape]
Male voice-over speaking in ominous voice: There’s a cloud over our economy: Dave Loebsack’s government takeover of health care [black and white footage of Loebsack’s head, with words on screen DAVE LOEBSACK GOVERNMENT TAKEOVER OF HEALTHCARE]
Fear and uncertainty prevents new hiring. [Loebsack’s image remains on screen, words change to FEAR UNCERTAINTY PREVENT NEW HIRING]
Steep fines and new taxes on families and businesses. [Loebsack’s image remains, words change to STEEP FINES NEW TAXES]
Half a trillion dollars [image shifts to rain pouring down on window, words HALF A TRILLION DOLLARS]
money they can’t use to create jobs [image of street with rain falling, forming puddles, words HALF A TRILLION DOLLARS THEY CAN’T USE TO CREATE JOBS]
Experts say Obama-Loebsack will push employers to drop workers’ health insurance. [image of storm clouds over large city, words DAVE LOEBSACK “EMPLOYERS TO SIMPLY DROP COVERAGE” Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2010]
With Loebsack and Obama, the storm will only get worse. [back to footage of Loebsack talking, with big thunder and lightning on screen next to words DAVE LOEBSACK AND OBAMA … THE STORM WILL ONLY GET WORSE]
The National Republican Congressional Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising.
Rarely does one see more visual and verbal cliches packed into a 30-second spot. Too bad the First Amendment doesn’t allow Congress to ban the use of gathering storm clouds as a backdrop to political attack ads.
This commercial doesn’t tell second district viewers anything they don’t think they already know about President Obama’s health insurance reform law. I don’t see this ad convincing anyone who doesn’t already believe in the big bad government takeover of healthcare, which Politifact declared the “lie of the year” for 2010.
It’s a big stretch to claim businesses aren’t hiring new workers because they fear taxes and fines linked to health care reform. Most of those won’t go into effect until 2014. The economy is stalled because of insufficient demand for goods and services now and in the near future.
Content hardly matters for a token ad buy in August before election year. According to The Hill, the NRCC is spending $11,000 for “two weeks of cable advertising” in the second district. It’s not clear where the commercials are running. The 24 counties in Loebsack’s new district are in five different media markets: Cedar Rapids, Ottumwa-Kirksville (Missouri), Quincy (Illinois), the Quad Cities and Des Moines. I will update this post if further details about the ad buy become available.
The NRCC won’t persuade many voters with this commercial, but it may convince potential Republican candidates that party leaders are not writing off IA-02. Here’s a preview of future NRCC messaging against the three-term Democrat:
“With the steep decline in President Obama’s approval ratings in Iowa, Loebsack is particularly vulnerable because of his unrelenting support of Obama’s $1 trillion government takeover of health care and $800 billion failed stimulus plan,” according to Andrea Bozek of the NRCC. “Dave Loebsack and Obama have made our struggling economy even worse with their big-spending agenda that has led to a downgrade in America’s credit rating and record-high unemployment.”
The new IA-02 leans slightly less Democratic than Loebsack’s old turf, with a partisan voting index of D+4. In other words, during the last two presidential elections, voters in the new IA-02 voted about 4 points more Democratic than the U.S. average. The district contains some pockets of high unemployment by Iowa standards. Loebsack’s campaign war chest is not very intimidating, with $216,951 cash on hand as of June 30.
So far three Republicans have expressed interest in challenging Loebsack. John Archer of Bettendorf filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission in July. As of this morning, his campaign website still has almost no content. Housing developer Dan Dolan, also from Scott County, has no campaign website to my knowledge. Tea partier Richard Gates of Keokuk in Lee County is the most active potential candidate. He mingled at the Ames straw poll and has several upcoming events posted on his campaign website.
Any comments related to the IA-02 race are welcome in this thread.
UPDATE: If I were a Republican, Loebsack’s timidity would make me hopeful. Paul Deaton of Blog for Iowa liveblogged Loebsack’s August 22 appearance on Iowa Public Radio’s program “The Exchange.” You can listen to the show here; the segment with Loebsack begins just before the 25-minute mark. He sounds tentative about everything: whether President Obama overstepped his powers during the U.S. military intervention in Libya, when Congress should cut the defense budget, and prospects for the Congressional “super committee” that will draft budget cuts. Loebsack starts speaking about the “super committee” around the 34-minute mark. He doesn’t want to draw any lines in the sand, he emphasizes that we need to compromise. He talks about the need for balance in deficit reduction, not cutting too much from education and economic development, but he won’t take a clear stand for raising tax rates on the highest income bracket. Around the 39-minute mark Loebsack talks about “enhanced revenues” in terms of closing loopholes for “companies that ship jobs overseas” and making some changes in the tax code that both sides can agree on. Then he segues to extending research and development tax credits, which wouldn’t raise revenues at all.
It reminded me of September 2010, when Loebsack decided he was no longer sure Congress should let the Bush tax cuts expire for the wealthiest Americans. In December 2010, he voted for the deal extending all the Bush tax cuts, saying “I took this vote with a caveat that we have to do better.” He doesn’t articulate any inspiring vision (let alone a “progressive” vision), and he often sounds unsure of himself.