Here’s a question to get our weekend conversation going: which Republican will be next to follow Tim Pawlenty out of the presidential race?  

Andrew Malcolm asked and answered the same question at his Los Angeles Times blog. He suggested either former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum or former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, because both have relatively low “positive intensity scores” according to Gallup.

I don’t see either Santorum or Huntsman dropping out before the New Hampshire primary.

Santorum finished fourth behind Pawlenty in last weekend’s Ames straw poll, but he had far less to lose. With a relatively small war chest, he’s been running an old-fashioned campaign with few staffers, some radio advertising and no television commercials yet. Instead, Santorum has spoken directly to activists at Republican events across the state. His solid anti-abortion record will win him many fans in the GOP base, and I thought he performed well in the August 11 debate. There is no reason for Santorum to drop out before votes are cast in Iowa and New Hampshire, even if his fundraising remains dismal. At the very least, he can use the televised debates to raise his profile with a view to being an attractive running mate or cabinet member. He already has a few well-known Republican supporters in Iowa, Republican National Committeewoman Kim Lehman and American Future Fund leader Nick Ryan, whom Santorum hired as a paid consultant. Former first district Congressional candidate Ben Lange and State Representative Walt Rogers of Waterloo have already endorsed Santorum, and I think others will follow their lead. For a Republican facing a tough statehouse race in 2012, it can’t hurt to score points with Ryan. The American Future Fund PAC is sure to get involved in competitive Iowa raced next year.

As for Huntsman, why should a “intensity score” matter for him? He is independently wealthy and can finance his own campaign if the base doesn’t care for him. He is carving out what passes for a moderate niche in the current Republican field. For instance, he hasn’t backed away from supporting civil unions, and he believes in evolution and the scientific consensus on climate change. Huntsman’s no environmental hero: he criticized the EPA during the Republican debate in Ames and “thinks most new environmental regulations should be shelved until the economy improves.”

Texas Governor Rick Perry’s entry into the race is a big threat in Florida, where the Huntsman campaign is based. But New Hampshire Republicans haven’t typically favored southerners. Huntsman may be able to do reasonably well in that primary. In the meantime, he can use televised debates to brand himself as a sort-of-moderate Republican. Huntsman won’t win the GOP nomination, obviously, but I don’t think that’s his primary goal. By warning loudly and frequently that GOP extremism is hurting the party, he sets himself up as a good candidate in 2016 if next year’s nominee blows a golden opportunity to beat Barack Obama.

Check out this video in which Rick Perry defends abstinence-only sex education, even though Texas has the country’s third-highest teen pregnancy rate:

That kind of evidence-be-damned, I know what I think viewpoint is a good foil for a Republican like Huntsman.

Newt Gingrich isn’t going anywhere. This presidential race is supporting his lifestyle. Just this weekend, he’s taking a “campaign” trip to Hawaii. The months ahead present many opportunities to sell his books and movie productions.

Ditto for Herman Cain, the former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza. A few weeks ago, I wondered whether he might be tiring of the campaign, because he said he “had” to finish in the top three in the Ames straw poll. However, Cain didn’t seemed bothered by his fifth-place finish. On the contrary, he said last week that he would be “ecstatic” to finish in the top five in the New Hampshire primary. Craig Robinson bashed Cain’s lack of effort and grass-roots organizing in Iowa, but Cain isn’t playing to win. Before this year, few people had heard of him. The televised debates alone will raise his profile enough to make him a contender for a cabinet post, perhaps secretary of commerce.

Only a scandal of epic proportions could force Representatives Ron Paul or Michele Bachmann out of the race before the first few primaries. The same goes for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Representative Thad McCotter is the Republican I consider most likely to drop out before anyone votes. He was excluded from the Fox News/Iowa GOP debate in Ames and finished last in the straw poll. He has no campaign organization to speak of and no issue to set him apart from other candidates. If it becomes clear that he won’t be invited to any of the televised debates, why would McCotter continue? Even if he does participate in debates, I could see him ending his campaign shortly before the Iowa caucuses, as Representative Tom Tancredo did in 2007.

This is an open thread. What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers?