Senator Chuck Grassley has a solid lead over Democrat Roxanne Conlin in the latest Iowa poll for the Des Moines Register. Among 550 likely voters Selzer and Co surveyed between September 19 and 22, 61 percent said they would vote for Grassley and just 30 percent for Conlin if the election were held today.
More details from the poll, along with Grassley’s latest television commercials and other news from the race, can be found after the jump.
UPDATE: Scroll to the bottom for videos and transcripts of two new ads Grassley’s campaign released on September 27.
SEPTEMBER 28 UPDATE: The latest Iowa Senate poll by Republican pollster Rasmussen sees Grassley well ahead of Conlin, but by a 55 percent to 37 percent margin.
The Selzer poll for the Register found 56 percent approve of the way Grassley is handling his job, while just 30 percent disapprove and 14 percent are not sure. Those are strong numbers for an incumbent, even if they are down from the approval ratings Grassley has enjoyed for most of his career (in the 60s and 70s). Grassley has run at least six different positive television commercials since Labor Day, focusing on different aspects of his work for constituents.
Conlin was less well-known to respondents, which isn’t surprising because she has run for office statewide just one time before, and that was 28 years ago.
When asked about specific criticisms of Conlin, none of the possible flaws drew a majority of agreement. A significant number of voters were unsure how to answer, which could mean Conlin has not succeeded in making herself known to Iowans. […]
In contrast, 18 percent to 35 percent of Grassley’s supporters were inclined to agree with four possible criticisms of him.
Thirty-five percent of his supporters say he’s less aggressive in taking on special interests, and 30 percent say he has caved to Republican leadership. Even one in four say he has been in office too long.
Selzer said: “They’re willing to see him as the imperfect senator that he is and still vote for him.”
Conlin always faced an uphill battle; very few five-term incumbent senators ever lose re-election, and Grassley had never been re-elected with less than 65 percent of the vote. In addition, the national political climate favors Republicans this year. Still, Democrats had hoped for a much closer race than this appears to be going into the final stretch of the campaign.
Incidentally, the Register’s poll also found fairly strong approval numbers for Tom Harkin, whose voting record is quite different from Grassley’s. 48 percent of respondents approve of how Harkin is handling his job as U.S. senator, while 35 percent disapprove and 17 percent aren’t sure.
Grassley has played it safe in his campaign, declining all debate invitations and agreeing to just one joint appearance with Conlin, on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” program. Conlin held an “empty chair” debate in Des Moines on September 19 and plans a similar event in Cedar Rapids on October 3, but only a huge gaffe by Grassley could shake up this race now.
Grassley has a lot more money to spend on television than Conlin, thanks in large part to special interests who have generously funded his campaign committee. Every week since Labor Day, Grassley has rolled out two new positive television commercials in heavy rotation. Here’s the first one from last week, called “Who”:
My transcript:
Unidentified man speaks briefly to camera, then photos of large groups of people are shown: Every other year, ambassadors and high-ranking diplomats gather in Iowa to learn about our state. And who brings ’em together? The State Department? UN?
Chuck Grassley, standing in farm field: Who brings ’em here? I do. To open up opportunities for Iowa exports and the good jobs that come with it. We can’t wait on Washington to do it.
Female voice-over: Grassley works…
Different unidentified man speaking to camera: …for us.
Grassley: I’m Chuck Grassley, and I approved this message.
That is a very solid ad for an incumbent. They may have produced this commercial as a response to Conlin’s ad that mentioned Grassley’s votes on tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas.
The second commercial from last week focused on alternative energy:
My transcript:
Unidentified man, speaking to camera: Chuck Grassley made Iowa wind farms possible.
Grassley, standing in farm field: I like being called the father of the wind energy tax credit. I also wrote laws for solar energy and biofuels. Our future is right here, not in Saudi Arabia. I want to do even more, here in Iowa.
Female voice-over: Grassley works…
Unidentified woman, speaking to camera: …for us.
Grassley: I’m Chuck Grassley, and I approved this message.
Grassley has generally supported wind energy development, most recently agreeing to co-sponsor a renewable electricity standard bill. Grassley has also voted for many energy bills giving huge subsidies to fossil fuels industries, and opposed efficiency standards that would have reduced our reliance on imported oil. However, no one’s likely to hear about that side of his record.
Share any thoughts about the Senate race in this thread.
UPDATE: Grassley’s campaign launched two more television commercials on September 27. Here’s “End secret holds”:
My transcript:
Chuck Grassley, standing in farm field: Right now, a senator can hold up a bill or a nomination without telling the voter what they’re up to. That’s just plain wrong.
Unidentified man, speaking to camera: In Washington, they’re called “secret holds.” They’re really sneaky holds, and Chuck Grassley is leading the fight to stop them.
Grassley: It’s a no-brainer. The public’s business ought to be public.
Female voice-over: Grassley works…
Second unidentified man: for us.
Grassley: I’m Chuck Grassley, and I approved this message.
Credit where credit is due: it’s brilliant for Grassley to campaign against a procedural move his Republican Senate colleagues have frequently abused. If Grassley has ever used secret holds himself, this commercial might not be such a smart move, but I don’t know whether he has done so. During the 1990s someone held up President Bill Clinton’s nomination of Bonnie Campbell for a federal judgeship; I always wondered whether that might have been Grassley.
A far bigger problem in the Senate is the Republicans’ use of the filibuster, which has de facto imposed a 60-vote majority threshold on all Senate business. The framers of the Constitution clearly intended for the Senate to be able to act on most matters by a simple majority vote. Grassley hasn’t supported Senator Tom Harkin’s efforts to curb the use of filibusters.
The second new Grassley ad highlights his support for foster care:
My transcript:
Unidentified woman, speaking to camera: Who’d guess that Senator Chuck Grassley was a leading advocate for kids in foster care?
Grassley: Every child has a right to a safe and loving home.
Same woman: He got the legislator of the year award from Voice for Adoption, and his bipartisan efforts have helped many states double foster care adoptions.
Female voice-over: Grassley works…
Same woman: for us. Chuck knows what matters.
Grassley: I’m Chuck Grassley, and I approved this message.
Again, this is a brilliant ad. I’m glad to learn that Grassley has helped kids in foster care–good for him. It’s a stretch to paint Grassley as a huge advocate for services to at-risk kids. During the last two budget years, most states would have had to make deep cuts in services to children (social workers, Medicaid, education) without the federal stimulus funding and other fiscal aid measures Grassley has voted against. But no one is making that case against the incumbent.
On the whole, Grassley’s commercials have been extremely well-crafted–probably better than any other political advertising I’ve seen this cycle. His prescription drug coverage spot had a deceptive premise, which evoked a scolding from the Des Moines Register’s editorial board, but who reads newspaper editorials?
Governor Chet Culver’s campaign should have developed a similar advertising strategy, with many spots sharing a slogan and a “look,” highlighting different policies that have helped Iowans.
SECOND UPDATE: From a Conlin campaign e-mail blast on September 27:
Some people don’t give up when they are down in the polls. We call them Governor Tom Vilsack or Senator Scott Brown.
Today we got bad polling news, but we also got great election news. As of today we are up at least 4 to 1 in early absentee votes. We know this because we spent all summer talking to voters and encouraging our supporters to vote early — and it’s working!
It’s go time. Tell your friends, your family, neighbors and coworkers about this race. You can win this by talking about it.
In 1998, Tom Vilsack was polling at 31 percent just five weeks before Election Day, and we all know the result of that election. Very few people thought a little known State Senator would succeed Ted Kennedy, but his opponent dropped 30 points in the weeks leading up to their election.
We’ll never match the 35 years of corporate PAC money Senator Grassley has in his campaign account, but we are beating him in early ballots. He’s never had to campaign like this before. In fact, an automated call from him was made to the Iowa Democratic Party encouraging them to return the absentee ballot request he was mailing them. Really?!?!