I suspected that Congressman Tom Latham’s internal polling must be showing a close race when he put up a negative tv ad. Now the first public poll of Iowa’s fourth district is out.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos found this:
Tom Latham 47
Becky Greenwald 42
undecided 11
Click the link for the internals.
Key findings:
Latham’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are 42 percent and 38 percent.
Greenwald’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are 44 percent and 35 percent.
Interestingly, the same poll found John McCain leading Barack Obama in the fourth district by 46 to 42 percent. Given the many polls showing Obama above the 50 percent mark in Iowa, I would have thought Obama would be leading McCain in this D+0 district.
If Greenwald is doing as well in IA-04 as Obama, then I feel really good about our chances for an upset in this district. Obama’s superior ground game could easily be worth several percentage points on election day.
Paging EMILY’s list and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee: please start spending some money on tv ads in this district! Greenwald has launched a good web ad recently, but she hasn’t been on tv for the past ten days or so.
Please donate to Greenwald if you can.
UPDATE: Supposedly the United Auto Workers are on the air with an anti-Latham radio ad. Has anyone heard it?
7 Comments
I donated on Friday!
This poll is good news, but it’s hard to believe that McCain is actually winning the district. If they have oversampled Republicans then this poll understates Greenwald’s support.
corncam Sat 25 Oct 9:16 PM
that's what I think too
The two most recent Iowa polls show Obama up by 8 and Obama up by 15.
If the truth is somewhere in between, it’s hard to believe he is only at 42 percent in the fourth district.
Latham has to be counting on a significant number of ticket-splitters. I don’t think he can win if Becky runs even with Obama.
desmoinesdem Sat 25 Oct 9:26 PM
here's to hoping we control 4/5 of our districts come 2009...
in 2006 I randomly predicted Loebsack would win, and i was just thrilled to be right. it was one of the more fun elections in ’06 for me although i’m not in his district. Getting rid of Latham would undoubtedly be a greater accomplishment. I’m definitely hoping that they did in fact oversample Republicans.
wish i could donate to help her along, but I’m not well off right now in that area.
adamsmo Sat 25 Oct 11:30 PM
This poll is not good news...
I hate to be the Debbie Downer here, but I don’t think this poll is great news.
1. Everyone wants to compare this to the Loebsack/Leach race in 2006, but it’s not the same. Leach was a very low-key politician who didn’t go negative and didn’t even really campaign until he looked like he was in trouble. Latham is a dirty, dirty politician who makes Leach look like a saint.
2. Also, by this point in the 2006 campaign, polls showed Loebsack leading Leach (by one point, but leading nonetheless).
3. The fact that Greenwald’s positive/negative numbers are virtually identical to the incumbent is very troubling. It shows that Latham’s negative ads are working.
4. Obama’s ground game is out for Obama, not Greenwald. Especially if Obama is struggling in the district.
american007 Sun 26 Oct 12:40 AM
it's not the same as 2006
but that works both ways. Loebsack had the edge in that his district was more D and Leach wasn’t going negative.
But Loebsack didn’t have a presidential-year turnout to support him either. Yes, Obama’s ground game will primarily support him, but I think it will still help down-ticket Dems somewhat.
It’s hardly surprising that Latham’s negative ads would be affecting Greenwald, especially since she’s not on tv at all now. That’s why I’ve been so disappointed that the DCCC and EMILY’s list have been AWOL on this race.
Given Latham’s previous re-election margins and his heavy negative advertising, you’d expect him to be way ahead here. For Greenwald to be even with Obama is very good news in my opinion.
desmoinesdem Sun 26 Oct 7:56 AM
Voters Under 30
This poll has Obama winning among voters under 30 by just a 46% to 43% margin (Greenwald is up 47% to 43%). A Des Moines Register poll done by Selzer and Co. in mid September showed Obama with a 2 to 1 margin among voters under 35. With Iowa State University being in the 4th district, I believe Obama (and Greenwald) will perform much better among voters under 30.
18% of those polled were under 30. If Obama and Greenwald can increase their support in this group to 56% to 33% then there’d be a good shot that they both would win the 4th district.
noneed4thneed Sun 26 Oct 11:59 AM
4th District
I think this poll is good news. Of course I wish Becky were ahead in the poll…but within the margin of error isn’t too bad. I’m actually happy to see that her support seems to be the similar to that of Obama. That means that a lot of people are voting straight ticket.
Latham is polling at under 50%. That means that there are a lot of people who are at least willing to think about voting against him. A strong get out the vote campaign could really help.
lorih Tue 28 Oct 10:51 PM