What Changed?
After the outbreak of the financial crisis, one presidential debate (polling hasn't quite caught up to the VP debate) and a week of Sarah Palin public humiliation, the national map is looking much, much better for Obama.
EV rich states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota (47 EV) move from “toss-up” to lean Obama. Montana and Louisiana (12 EV), move from “lean McCain” to “likely McCain”. West Virginia, which had been flirting with the “toss-up” category, moves back into “lean McCain”.The toss-up states remain roughly the same otherwise, although it seems one could safely move some around. Obama hasn't led in Missouri since polling began, likewise for McCain in Colorado.
Nationally, the trend moves from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama”. Obama now stands at his best position since the campaign began, 8 points over McCain in the poll average–50-42.
Where they stand:
Obama: Not much to say this week. It's all good news. If I were him, I'd start picking out furniture for the Oval Office and what tie to wear on inaguration day.
His only bad news isn't that unexpected. Montana and Louisiana, which were little more than icing on the cake, slip comfortably back into McCain territory.
McCain: Titanic, meet iceberg. This has to be McCain's worst week in this campaign to date. The only ray of hope is that McCain as a candidate thrives when his back is against the wall. However, he needs a major “Hail Mary” to get him out of this slump, and honestly, I'm not sure what that could be at this point.
His only bright spot is the potential that the financial crisis will be bumped from the headlines by foreign conflict or terrorism. Either that, or he could pull Osama Bin Laden out of a hat on prime-time.
According to 270towin.com, their simulation engine shows Obama winning 96.2% of the last 1000 simulations.
If the election were held today, and every state voted according to the latest poll average, Obama would win in a landslide–333-205 EV.
Obama: 260; McCain: 169; Toss Up: 157
Likely Obama: 182 EV (the old familiar places, US as a whole)
Lean Obama: 30 EV (WA, NM, WI, ME, MI, MN, PA)
Toss Up: 157 EV (NV, CO, OH, VA, NH, IN, PA, MO, FL, NC)
Lean McCain: 23 EV (WV)
Likely McCain: 146 EV (the old familiar places)
2 Comments
You were right, desmoinesdem...
Pennsylvania and Minnesota were a lot less likely to go for McCain than I originally thought. Good call!
american007 Sun 5 Oct 3:35 PM
by the same token
I never believed Obama had any chance in places like North Dakota or Montana, despite encouraging polls in the summer.
Some states flirt with the other party before reverting to their regular pattern in the fall.
New Jersey is another one that seems to be within reach for Republicans, only to fall back in the blue column when Democrats start coming home.
desmoinesdem Mon 6 Oct 12:06 AM