Well, we're 10 days closer to E-day, so here's an analysis of where the race stands.
What Changed?
The number of “leaner” states has dropped dramatically. Oregon and New Jersey (22 EV together) have moved from “lean Obama” to “likely Obama”; Arizona, North and South Dakota, Texas, Arkansas, and South Carolina (74 EV) move from “lean McCain” to “likely McCain”.
A few states have, however, moved back into toss-up territory. Minnesota and Pennsylvania moved from “lean Obama” to “toss-up”; Florida, Indiana and North Carolina move out of “lean McCain”. Maine moves from “likely Obama” to “lean Obama”. In a big blow to McCain, West Virginia moves from “likely McCain” to “toss-up” and Louisiana moves from “likely McCain” to “lean McCain”. (More on all this later.)
Nationally, the trend is strongly in favor of Obama. The country as a whole moves from “toss-up” to “lean Obama”, in the wake of polls showing Obama up by as much as 5-8 points over McCain.
However, while this is good news, a disturbing fact remains. If the election were held today, and every state voted exactly as the latest poll suggests, and there were no recounts or lawsuits, the result would be: a 269-269 tie.
Where they stand:
Obama: Obama has a lot going for him. On a macro level, the continued focus on the national economy only helps him as voters strongly prefer him to McCain on that issue.
On a micro level, I think the best news is in the latest polls out of West Virginia. A poll released by CNN/Time shows McCain over Obama 50-46%, with 4% undecided with a margin of error of 3.5%. This represents a HUGE improvement from polls taken in February which showed Obama in the 30% range. Considering that Bush beat Kerry by 13% there in 2004…this is a big shift. It also bodes well for Obama's chances in southern Pennsylvania and Ohio.
If Obama has a problem area, it seems to be in northern states. McCain is in the lead and gaining in New Hampshire and Montana, and is up 10 points from his low in Maine to pull within 10 points there. McCain is also gaining ground in Washington, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
McCain: McCain lost his mojo (pre-suspension). The bloom seems to be off the Palin pick, and the economy hurts his chances more each day.
If there is a silver lining for McCain, it is that he seems to have locked in the base in several states that were looking a little pink. He reversed downward trends in many states, including Texas, Arizona, South Carolina and the Dakotas. He's also starting to pull away in a few places like Montana, Missouri and New Hampshire.
McCain is losing major ground in the Mid-Atlantic States. He has lost ground this week from Pennsylvania to North Carolina–key states if he hopes to win in November.
Slate Election Scorecard/Pollster.com
Obama: 212; McCain: 169; Toss Up: 157
Likely Obama: 182 EV (you know who)
Lean Obama: 30 EV (WA, NM, WI, ME, US as a whole)
Toss Up: 157 EV (NV, CO, MI, MN, OH, VA, NH, IN, PA, WV, FL, NC)
Lean McCain: 23 EV (MO, LA, MT)
Likely McCain: 146 EV (you know who)
3 Comments
I do not believe PA and MN are tossups
Obama is still strongly favored to win those states in my mind. I think there were methodological issues with the ARG and Zogby interactive polls that found McCain ahead in PA–there have been many, many polls that find Obama ahead.
I am also encouraged by the recent Pew report suggesting that polls may be slightly understating Obama’s support because of the cell phone only users, who tend to be much younger than the average voter.
If Obama doesn’t screw up in the debates, this election is his to lose in my mind. Palin doesn’t appear to be helping McCain in the key states. Obama has been shown ahead in several CO and VA polls and even one or two NC and FL polls. Remember that he only needs one of those states.
desmoinesdem Thu 25 Sep 5:47 PM
Polls
I think if the election were held today, and if everyone voted like they say they are in the polls and if exactly 50% of the undecideds went for each candidate, Obama would win easily.
One of my favorite sites is 270 to win:
http://www.270towin.com/
That site has an election simulation based on state polls. For example, say Obama is ahead by 10 points–maybe they calculate that his chances of winning Iowa are 75%, then he will win Iowa in 75% of the scenario. They do that for all the states. Utah ALWAYS is red. New York and California are almost always blue. The states where it is very close sometimes go to Obama and sometimes to McCain. Right now Obama is winning about 79% of the last 1000 simulations according to that site. This is a huge shift. In the middle of the Palin bounce Obama was winning about 45-50%.
However, the election is not today. And there are all kinds of other possible factors. For example, will there be a Bradley effect, where people tell pollsters that they will vote for a black guy, but then really don’t? On the other hand, are pollsters under calling cell phone users? Will McCain find another effective attack ad? What if there is another terrorist attack?
So many things that neither Obama, nor we have control over. All we can do is encourage any supporters we find to vote early while the voting is good.
lorih Fri 26 Sep 11:05 AM
Bradley effect...
I’m very concerned about the Bradley effect. If even 5% of these supporters are lying to the pollster, the race changes dramatically. If 10% are lying, then it’s probably game over. (That is a killer site, by the way!)
And desmoinesdem, I do think PA and MN are toss-ups. You’re right that most polling has shown Obama in the lead. The majority of the polls I’ve seen suggest the race in both states is somewhere around a 5% advantage for Obama with few undecideds. I’m not sure 5% advantage is enough to call it for Obama yet. Plus, the trend there seems to suggest McCain rising and Obama falling or holding steady ever since about July.
The cell-phone theory is interesting. I think there is real merit to this, especially in the tightening economy–so many people (not just young people) are ditching the land line to cut costs. I think there are a lot more people doing this than may appear.(My parents did exactly this over the summer.)
american007 Fri 26 Sep 2:13 PM