As of today, it's 50 days until Election Day. Here are some analysis' of where the race stands right now.
Obama: 233; McCain: 227; Toss Up: 78
Likely Obama: 172 EV (the usual suspects)
Lean Obama: 61 EV (IA, MN, NM, OR, PA, WA)
Toss Up: 78 EV (CO, MI. NV, NH, OH, VA, WI)
Lean McCain: 67 EV (FL, IN, MO, MT, NC)
Likely McCain: 160 EV (the usual suspects)
Obama: 240; McCain: 227; Toss Up: 68
Likely Obama: 161 EV (the usual suspects, plus IA)
Lean Obama: 79 EV (WA, OR, NM, MN, WI, PA, NJ)
Toss Up: 68 EV (NV, CO, MI, OH, VA, NH, US at large)
Lean McCain: 131 EV (AZ, MT, ND, SD, TX, MO, AR, IN, NC, SC, FL)
Likely McCain: 96 EV (the usual suspects)
Obama: 238 EV; McCain: 224; Toss Up: 76
Likely Obama: 179 EV (the usual suspects, plus IA)
Lean Obama: 59 EV (WA, OR, MN, WI, PA)
Toss Up: 76 EV (NV, MT, CO, NM, MI, OH, VA, NH, US trend)
Lean McCain: 91 EV (AZ, ND, MO, AR, IN, NC, SC, FL)
Likely McCain: 133 EV (the usual suspects)
The Road Ahead (from First Read linked above):
Countdown to the first presidential debate: 11 days
Countdown to the vice presidential debate: 19 days
Countdown to the second presidential debate: 22 days
Countdown to the third presidential debate: 30 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 50 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 127 days
So, I throw it up for discussion. All three poll aggregates listed have showed movement toward McCain in the last two weeks and there seems to be a popular consensus that the Obama campaign is in a bit of a slump. Where should Obama go from here?
5 Comments
I think Obama is in decent shape
State polls lag a bit behind national polls, so we are still seeing a bit of a convention bounce for McCain in these polls.
However, Obama has inched back up in the national tracking polls, and McCain’s and Palin’s favorables have gone down. Obama still has several plausible paths to 270 that do not involve Ohio or Florida, and yet he’s not that far behind in Ohio or Florida.
Besides make sure his ground game delivers in terms of early voting and election day turnout, I think Obama needs to do two related things:
1. Come up with more memorable and quotable lines. Today’s quip about how “If you believe that, I’ve got a bridge to sell you up in Alaska” is a great example. It communicates the phony lying by the Republican candidates in a funny way.
2. Get under McCain’s skin somehow. It would be outstanding if the unflappable Obama could get McCain to blow up or look really unprofessional during the debates. I hope they are practicing some lines that will bug McCain without coming across as petty or mean.
desmoinesdem Mon 15 Sep 10:58 PM
I'm a little concerned...
I guess I would just call how the campaign is going ‘so-so’. I think in ten days we’ll have a much clearer picture of where we’re headed going into the homestretch.
I always get worried when folks talk about the “ground game”. Lest we forget that Gore had a better “ground game” in 2000 and that Kerry supposedly had a better “ground game” in 2004.
Chris Matthews had an interesting observation tonight. When it comes to “what do you want from the government”, Obama wins. But when it comes to “who do you want to run the government”, McCain wins.
I think Obama needs to re-re-reintroduce himself to the voters, but in a way that’s not all about him and his story..but in a way that connects him to the people. Real sort of meat-and-potatoes, wave-the-flag, dad-and-the kids, God-and-country kind of stuff. For an example, these ads by Stephen Harper up in Canada are exactly what I’m talking about. The first video in particular is brilliant. Imagine the power of the line, “I’ll be voting for the first time, and I’ll be voting for Barack Obama.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
american007 Tue 16 Sep 7:44 PM
The Ground game
Here in Iowa is so much better than McCain’s that the tweleve point lead we have in Iowa is equal to the lead we have in California CALIFORNIA! and this is suppose to be the high point in the McCain campaign.
But instead of letting it worry you, let it fuel the fire.
During the debates, Obama will have to come through in the debates, but we also have to come through now.
We are the ground game, after all.
baldy08 Tue 16 Sep 8:28 PM
post convention bounce
McCain got a really good bounce this year…mostly due to Palin. He followed up with attack ads that worked. However, the bounce is leveled off now. I think we will see state polls following. In fact, the two latest polls show Obama ahead in Virginia. With 13 electoral votes, that would help a lot.
I agree with baldy08, we are the ground game. I read an interesting article by Karl Rove written several months ago
http://s.wsj.net/article/SB121…
He thinks that Obama’s ground game is better than Gore’s or Kerry’s. I hope that is true because we are going to need it. Also, with Palin energizing the religious right, they may have a pretty good ground game as well. He points out that paid staffers are not nearly as effective as volunteers in convincing undecided voters. Say what you like about Rove, he managed to get one of the dumbest presidents ever elected twice.
lorih Wed 17 Sep 12:58 PM
I guarantee you
that Obama’s ground game is better than Gore’s or Kerry’s. Whether it will be good enough I don’t know, but the previous candidates were bound by public financing limits during the general election and spent most of the money on tv ads. The state parties and outside groups were mostly responsible for GOTV.
I am not convinced that the evangelicals who are excited about Palin will volunteer for McCain to the same degree that they volunteered for Bush in 2004. He was their hero in a way that McCain never will be.
desmoinesdem Wed 17 Sep 4:51 PM