On the one hand, pollster.com’s electoral vote projection, along with Karl Rove’s latest electoral vote projection, show Barack Obama with a huge advantage over John McCain.

Chris Bowers also sees Obama heavily favored to win the presidency, since McCain would need to win every single tossup state to get to 270 electoral votes.

On the other hand, Obama supporter poblano/Nate Silver’s electoral vote projection is much less favorable than pollster.com’s and shows McCain gaining some ground in recent weeks.

Matt Stoller wonders why national polls are basically static even though journalists covering both campaigns agree that “McCain’s campaign is widely considered to be a disaster and Obama’s is considered to be excellent if a bit cold.”

Stoller is also concerned about low funding levels for outside progressive groups, which means that “There is no cavalry in case Obama stumbles and there are no groups that can go negative against McCain.”

Paul Rosenberg notes that “the overall Obama vs. McCain numbers are far behind the generic Dem vs. Rep numbers, which means that overall Obama is not leading the charge, he’s surfing the wave.”

But Open Left commenter NR is sick of hearing complaints that Obama should be further ahead:

Obama is a black man with a funny name who just got out of the most bruising primary we’ve seen in decades, running against a popular war hero who’s worshiped by the media. Frankly, it’s a miracle that he has even a slim lead at this point.

If you’re one of those people who thinks everything happening now is irrelevant, because voters won’t start paying attention until after Labor Day, I encourage you to read this piece by fladem on how polling numbers from July related to presidential election outcomes in past years. He concludes, “most Presidential races are decided in the summer, not the fall.”

How do you see the race shaping up? I am cautiously optimistic, in that I see several plausible scenarios for Obama getting to 270 electoral votes without Ohio or Florida.

Also, a Pew Research Center poll shows Obama leading McCain among Latinos by an impressive margin.

UPDATE: Jonathan Singer notes that the Pew poll is not an outlier; other polling this summer also indicates that Obama crushes McCain among Latinos.