I was reading this post by Fmr. Clinton Labor Secretary (and current Obama supporter) Robert Reich that lays out three scenarios for why Hillary is staying in the race. Here are the condensed versions:

1. The Clintons still think they can win.

2. Hillary is positioning herself for a run in 2012 or 2016.

3. Hillary is looking for the best deal from Obama. (I would add the DNC to this deal-making)

Dr. Reich's analysis concludes that it's a mixture of all three, and I agree. I also agree that by this point, most of her motivation has to be coming from the second and third. With that in mind, I want to look at some very specific things she might be negotiating for.

Short Term Goals:

    1. Campaign Debt Relief

     Hillary is in hock by at least $21 million dollars, and she's written off millions of dollars in personal loans. Obama, on the other hand is sitting on over $200 million dollars and a massive donor list. While campaign finance laws mean that he can't simply write her a big Publishers' Clearinghouse sized check–he can fundraise for her and let her in on his donor list. And, as this LA Times article suggests, many Obama supporters would be glad to write Hillary a check if she buries the hatchet. Just as long as she doesn't bury it in Obama's back. 

    2. Seat the Michigan and Florida Delegates

    As Dr. Reich points out, this would be a huge moral victory for Hillary. It would also keep Michigan and Florida happy, avoiding a convention rules fight and sore feelings in the general election. If nothing else, it would allow Hillary the high note on which to end her campaign and change the media message, which otherwise dwell on her “failed campaign”. Not to mention that it would put her in good standing in those state should should she take a run in 2012 (God forbid) or 2016.

    3. A Hand in Choosing Obama's Vice-President

    If Hillary can't be Obama's vice-president (and it's looking like a remote possibility that she can), she more than likely wants to be in on the selection process. If she's positioning herself for a 2012 or 2016 run, she needs to keep her position as the preeminent female Democrat. Obviously it's going to make a political comeback down the road much more difficult if she has to square off against Vice President Kathleen Sebelius in 2016, (or VP candidate Sebelius in 2012). 

    My guess is, she would like to see a VP candidate who is sympathetic to her and appealing to her supporters, as well as (and this is key) someone who would make a backroom pledge to step aside in either 2012 or 2016 should Hillary want to run again.  Evan Bayh, Wes Clark, and Bill Richardson would all fit the bill nicely.

 

Long Term Goals:

Now, obviously she can't do all of these things. But these could be positions and concessions she's seeking. This is all speculation, however. 

    1. Promotion to Senate Majority Leader

    Perhaps the quickest route to Hillary redeeming her public image after such a contentious campaign would be a promotion to Senate Majority Leader. All indications are that the next Senate Majority Leader is going to lead a banner Democrat senate, gaining four seats for a 53-44 majority. As Senate Majority Leader, Hillary would become the first female senate party and majority leader in history, and it would mark the first time that women held positions of power in both the House and the Senate.

She could use the bully pulpit of the position to advocate policy, claim victories, and in general, keep her name in the press and her face on television. Harry Reid might not be happy over the pink slip, but if this is something the Clintons want…he wouldn't stand a chance.

    2. Appointment to the Supreme Court at the first vacancy

    This theory comes directly from Dr. Reich, and it's a serious possibility, since Reich has known the Clintons for years and years. Hillary is a Yale Law graduate, taught law in the past, and has written several canonical legal treatises on child rights–so she's qualified. And there may well be a wave of retirements from the court if some of the more liberal justices sense the time has come where they would get an ideologically suitable replacement. Republicans would raise hell over this, and Rush Limbaugh's head may well explode, but she would sail through the Senate if the party was able to close ranks behind her. 

    This would be an interesting move, one that would signal her de facto retirement from politics, although there is historical precedent for a USSC justice resigning and running for President, only to be re-appointed to the court later. Still, Hillary may well be tired of politics, and may seek to find a position where she could do the most good with the least pressure.

    4. A Run for NY Governor

    Hillary might be bucking for a chance to add “Governor” to her resume. It's been speculated that she is open to accepting this as “a consolation prize”. This is a new avenue that has opened up to her in the wake of the Spitzer scandal, and current NY Gov. David Patterson's series of seemingly inexplicable revelations that he's used drugs and had multiple affairs. If Patterson resigns or is pushed aside, Hillary could step in and fill the void. If she won the Gov. race in 2010, it would boost her resume and profile big time for either a 2012 or 2016 run. 

 

These are all, of course, speculative. However, they are all opportunities that would be within the power of the DNC and/or a possible President Obama to make possible.