Des Moines Register reporter Thomas Beaumont wrote an article for Thursday’s edition about the Boswell’s campaign’s Ralph Nader direct-mail pieces, which I diaried here and here.
I had been wondering why Boswell was playing the Nader card with six weeks to go in the campaign, and Beaumont advances a strong hypothesis:
The two mailings circulated this week in Iowa’s 3rd District mark a stepped-up effort by Boswell, a six-term Des Moines Democrat, to cast doubt on Fallon’s loyalty to the party. The mailings coincide with the distribution of absentee ballots for the June 3 primary.
Meanwhile, Al Gore sent out an e-mail fundraising appeal on behalf of Boswell, which I’ve put after the jump.
In other news, KCCI television released the first public poll of the Democratic primary in the third district. It shows Boswell leading Fallon 52-28, with 20 percent undecided. Boswell’s campaign manager, Mark Daley, said the poll shows
what we’ve seen all along. We’ve got a congressman who’s been there. Who’s been very effective” […]
Fallon told KCCI:
“If I were Boswell, I’d be really concerned that only 52 percent of Democrats was supporting me. An incumbent is usually a lot better after serving for 12 years,” […]
“People are very unhappy with Boswell’s continued support for the war. His lack of leadership on environmental issues,” Fallon said.
My big question about this poll is what turnout model did KCCI use? I don’t think anyone in either campaign has any idea how many Democrats will vote in this primary. About 38,000 people in the third district voted in the June 2006 gubernatorial primary.
Fallon presumably has a better chance if turnout is low, because his supporters are highly motivated to vote for him, and his campaign is focused on a field operation to identify those supporters.
Boswell has better name recognition and more money to spend on paid media, so he would probably benefit from high turnout in the primary.
Dear [recipient’s name],
There is an important election coming up in Iowa and I’m calling on all democrats to stand up for someone who has stood up for you time and time again. My friend, Leonard Boswell is a remarkable Congressman, and he is facing a serious primary challenge.
Whether the issue is global warming or increasing the minimum wage, making college more affordable or expanding health care to every American, Leonard Boswell is on the frontlines of these issues. He started his fight for energy back in the State Legislature and now he’s working side-by-side with Governor Culver and Senator Harkin.
He has stood up for you over the years and now he needs your help. Please join me in standing beside Leonard in this primary challenge. A small donation of $20.00, which symbolizes the 2000 election when Leonard stood by my side, will make an IMPORTANT difference in Leonard’s campaign. Tipper and I have already given the maximum contribution to the campaign- that shows how strongly we feel about Leonard’s re-election.
JOIN TIPPER AND MECONTRIBUTE 20 DOLLARS TODAY!
I will never forget traveling across Iowa back in 1999 and 2000 during my presidential campaign with Leonard and his wife, Dody, joining Tipper and me. Few people fought as hard for me as Leonard did. From our very first bus trip until election night — every step of the way, he was right there beside me, standing up to pharmaceutical companies, fighting to make Iowa a leader in alternative energy. As you remember, we won the caucus.
Over the past eight years, every time the Republicans tried to push their rightwing agenda, Leonard stood up to them.
When they tried to privatize Social Security, Leonard said: NO.
When they tried to silence science and ban stem cell research, Leonard said: NO.
When they tried to pass tax cuts for the rich and ignore the needs of working families, Leonard said: NO.
Leonard has been a tireless advocate for the people of Iowa. His record speaks for itself – increasing the minimum wage, making the single largest investment in college financial aid since the GI Bill and bringing tax relief to working men and women and away from oil companies. Whether it is defending our country for 20 years as a member of the United States Army, or serving the people of Iowa as a state senator and now a U.S. Congressman, Leonard has never shied away from tough battles. This is going to be a tough battle.
I need your help, please join me in supporting Leonard Boswell. Your contribution will go a long way towards making sure we send a real democrat back to Washington.
Thanks again for taking the time to read this letter and I hope you will stand with me and Leonard. The campaign has provided a remittance envelope for you convenience.
In friendship,
Al Gore
PS – Don’t forget to join Tipper and me and donate to Leonard today! And PLEASE forward this email to as many friends and family members as you can! We must send Leonard back to DC!