What’s going to happen in Pennsylvania today?
Markos predicts a Clinton victory by 8 percent and more than 200,000 votes:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…
Obama supporter poblano backs up his similar prediction with some interesting analysis:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…
If Obama keeps this one close (within 5 percent), it will be viewed as a blow to Clinton. If she crushes him like she did in Ohio, it will not be enough to win her the nomination, but it will increase doubts about Obama’s ability to close the deal with Democrats. He massively outspent Clinton over the past six weeks in Pennsylvania.
I think Clinton will win, but not in a blowout: 53-47.
Put your predictions in the comments section.
6 Comments
Hillary +10, +175,000
I see this one as being like New Hampshire, but with better polling. Obama has moved into range of a win, but will ultimately fall to the late deciders and the anti-black vote. The wild card is the nutso stuff Hillary said to KO last night about middle east policy, but I don’t think very many people who are undecided were watching.
Depending on the Congressional district breakdown, there could be as high as a 12 delegate win for Clinton.
I just don’t believe the folks predicting a win for Obama are realistic. Only one poll in the last 3 weeks has Obama ahead, and that’s inside the MOE. SUSA, which is really a good outfit has Obama down by something close to 20 points. If that poll is correct (I don’t think so….) then the Supers will definitely wait to endorse.
Obama needs an outright win to end the Clinnton campaign now, but anything close will assure his win in the minds of everybody but Billary.
I’m usually wrong…..FWIW
iowademocrat Tue 22 Apr 12:06 PM
Kurt Meyer?
I’ve been contacted 4 times in the last week by the Kurt Meyer campaign, once by Kurt for a very complete discussion, and three times by staff. I’ll be meeting with Kurt’s guy Jason next week.
Any questions I should ask? Any thoughts about any of the IA04 candidates?
TIA
iowademocrat Tue 22 Apr 12:44 PM
Clinton by less than 5%
My guess is that Clinton wins, but ultimately loses. Clinton wins it by less than 5%, but I don’t think a close Obama win is out of the question.
Clinton 52%
Obama 47%
My larger prediction is that anything less than a 10% win triggers a substantial super delegate movement toward Obama. Not only that, but anything less than 10% will intensify the internal rumblings to have Hillary step aside.
The general election starts by Memorial Day at the latest.
PS: You may want to start a new diary about that Kurt Meyer question…might attract more eyes that way. 🙂
american007 Tue 22 Apr 4:04 PM
no greater than 10%
I am predicting that Obama will keep in within 10 percentage points. My prediction is assuming that they had a a good GOTV program since they werent paying ward bosses like the clinton campaign. If obama keeps it within 10 and then wins indiana and north carolina then this race will be over
therealworld Tue 22 Apr 4:22 PM
Questions for Kurt Meyer
Two Questions for “Iowan” Kurt Meyer?
Where does his son currently go to high school?
Prior to the 2008 caucus, where has he voted in the last 10 years?
jackiowa Tue 22 Apr 8:33 PM
According to Facebook...
Not that it’s any of our business where his kid goes to school, but according to his Facebook profile, he goes to Benilde-St. Margarets in Minneapolis.
His daughter, Ellie goes to Luther College and he has 163 friends in his Facebook group.
I don’t think it’s any of our business though, and I don’t think it matters.
For the record, I am so sick of this “Meyer isn’t a real Iowan” baloney.
american007 Tue 22 Apr 9:25 PM