We are going to have a real problem getting to 270 electoral votes this November. Obama is still heavily favored to win the nomination, unless some bombshell scandal emerges during the next couple of months.
However, the rout in Ohio yesterday suggests that McCain would be heavily favored in that state against Obama. There are key elements of the Democratic base that are not sold on Obama.
Remind me again how he gets to 270 electoral votes without Florida (where he has virtually no chance against McCain) or Ohio. Kerry states plus Iowa and Missouri would not be enough, would it? I think he would also need Colorado, New Mexico or Virginia.
More worrying, Obama’s weakness in Ohio suggests to me that he may struggle to carry Pennsylvania in the general as well.
4 Comments
Both Obama and Hillary will be vulnerable
against McCain. There is no question about it. However, with Hillary’s near-zero appeal among independents and R’s, one has to wonder if her chances are any better in any of the battleground states than Obama’s. And considering her abysmal performance in many states, her candidacy against McCain could be doomed.
However, Obama’s inability to close the deal with many D’s and to put Hillary away in a commanding way presents a serious dilemma for him if he ends up being our nominee. Assuming that Hillary herself would not be too keen on the VP slot, I think there will be quite a bit of pressure for Obama to pick a woman as his running mate. With Hillary being so close to winning, picking a female VP may be the only way to really win her main constituency over. My money would be on Napolitano or Sebelius.
rf Wed 5 Mar 4:23 PM
I can't imagine why Hillary would want to be VP
She could accomplish more by staying in her Senate seat for life.
He won’t pick a woman, in my opinion. Napolitano can’t deliver her state (AZ is not in play against McCain), and I don’t think Sebelius brings that much to the table.
Obama needs to pick a running mate with foreign policy experience, in my opinion. That’s where he is most vulnerable against McCain.
desmoinesdem Wed 5 Mar 4:28 PM
You point out the other option
I think it will be either a woman or a foreign/military policy heavyweight. Ideally a combination of those, but I can’t think of anyone who would fit the bill.
rf Wed 5 Mar 7:44 PM
by the way
I saw in the exit polls from Ohio that Hillary did as well among independents as Obama did.
desmoinesdem Wed 5 Mar 4:28 PM