Super Tuesday prediction open thread

It is strange for me to feel so detached the day before an election. I don’t have a dog in this fight anymore. I see advantages and disadvantages to both Clinton and Obama as candidates and as presidents. I could live with either and would be enthusiastic about neither.

Super Tuesday, which looked a couple of weeks ago like it would be a blowout for Clinton, is up for grabs now with Obama surging in some key states. Put your predictions in this thread.

1. How many of the 22 states will Clinton win, how many will Obama win, and how many will be split decisions (with one candidate winning the popular vote and the other winning a majority of the delegates)?

2. Who will have the bigger winning margin: Obama in Illinois, or Clinton in New York?

3. Who will win each of the following states tomorrow?

Alabama

Alaska

Arizona

Arkansas

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware

Georgia

Idaho

Illinois

Kansas

Massachusetts

Minnesota

Missouri

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Dakota

Oklahoma

Tennessee

Utah

Check out MyDD and Open Left for recent polling data in these states, but keep in mind that there haven’t been any polls in some of them.

UPDATE: Obama supporter poblano has his predictions here:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

It’s based on delegates, not popular vote, so he thinks several states will be a tie.

I forgot to add Americans abroad and American Samoa to the list of entities voting today. I predict Obama will win both of those groups.

I think Clinton will win these 11 states today: AZ, AR, CA, DE, MA, NJ, NM, NY, ND, OK, TN

Although Obama has all the momentum in CA, I pick Clinton to hang on (barely) there. I was persuaded by silver spring’s diary that most of the polls understate the percentage of women voters:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

I think Obama will win these 11 states today: AL, AK, CO, CT, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, MO, UT

I think that Obama’s winning margin in IL will be bigger than Clinton’s winning margin in NY.

About the Author(s)

desmoinesdem

9 Comments

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Hey! Don't Forget American Samoa! :-)
American Samoa holds a Democratic caucus tomorrow, too!

For a complete rundown of states voting February 5 (on both sides), plus a look at how delegates will be allocated, click over to:

http://ipol-2008.blogspot.com/…

~iPol: the Personal Pronoun as applied to politics.

ipol Mon 4 Feb 11:22 AM
Gonna miss making predictions...
Better get out the crystal ball again. Is anyone going to make Republican predictions or does everyone just see a big McCain sweep?

Alabama: Clinton 55% Obama 45%

Alaska: Clinton 48% Obama 52%

Arizona: Clinton 57% Obama 43%

Arkansas: Clinton 70% Obama 30%

Calif.: Clinton 49% Obama 51%

Colorado: Clinton 45% Obama 55%

Conn.: Clinton 60% Obama 40%

Delaware: Clinton 52% Obama 48%

Georgia: Clinton 43% Obama 57%

Idaho: Clinton 48% Obama 52%

Illinois: Clinton 32% Obama 68%

Kansas: Clinton 46% Obama 54%

Mass. Clinton 55% Obama 45%

Minn. Clinton 53% Obama 47%

Missouri: Clinton 48% Obama 52%

N.J.: Clinton 59% Obama 41%

N.M: Clinton 54% Obama 46%

N.Y.: Clinton 61% Obama 39%

N.D.: Clinton 52% Obama 48%

Oklahoma: Clinton 58% Obama 42%

Tenn.: Clinton 55% Obama 45%

Utah: Clinton 45% Obama 55%

Clinton: 13 Obama: 9

I think Obama does better in IL than Clinton in NY, but only by a few percent. I think there could be recounts or challenges in several states. It’s going to be interesting!

american007 Mon 4 Feb 11:33 AM
- You're probably right
  Clinton might win more states (might!), but Obama will probably win more delegates. Obama has been catching up in the polls. He is on the east coast today which probably means he is pretty confident about the rest of the country. We could see an east coast surprise.
  
  drinksgreentea Mon 4 Feb 12:49 PM
Obama takes Utah!
…my former organizer in the Beaverdale area says that Obama will win Utah. She’s been out there since the caucus.

That’s the closest I can come to a prediction.

iowacubs Mon 4 Feb 3:01 PM
- I think that's a given
  I heard Clinton was not advertising there.
  
  The big question is who will take California. Clinton has some structural advantages, but all the momentum seems to be with Obama.
  
  desmoinesdem Mon 4 Feb 8:46 PM
Greg's Predictions
Alabama: Clinton 46% Obama 53%

Alaska: Clinton 45% Obama 54%

Arizona: Clinton 54% Obama 46%

Arkansas: Clinton 62% Obama 38%

Calif.: Clinton 49.8% Obama 49.2%

Colorado: Clinton 45% Obama 55%

Conn.: Clinton 47% Obama 53%

Delaware: Clinton 44% Obama 56%

Georgia: Clinton 39% Obama 61%

Idaho: Clinton 45% Obama 55%

Illinois: Clinton 28% Obama 72%

Kansas: Clinton 46% Obama 54%

Mass. Clinton 53% Obama 47%

Minn. Clinton 51% Obama 49%

Missouri: Clinton 48% Obama 52%

N.J.: Clinton 59% Obama 41%

N.M: Clinton 54% Obama 46%

N.Y.: Clinton 61% Obama 39%

N.D.: Clinton 47% Obama 53%

Oklahoma: Clinton 62% Obama 38%

Tenn.: Clinton 55% Obama 45%

Utah: Clinton 45% Obama 55%

Clinton: 10 Obama: 12

herky-gregeye Mon 4 Feb 3:11 PM
- California!
  California to a tenth of a percent! Any thought on who takes the most delegates there or do you see a fairly even split?
  
  First, I couldn’t find any very good polling information on Utah…so I’m glad got lucky with that coin toss!
  
  Second, does anyone know why Clinton is doing so well in Oklahoma? Is it because it neighbors Arkansas? Is race a factor? It just seems curious to me.
  
  Third, do you have a prediction, desmoinesdem?
  
  american007 Mon 4 Feb 6:45 PM
  - I will post my predictions later
    but Obama has always run poorly in Oklahoma. He was a distant third behind Clinton and Edwards the last poll I saw before Edwards dropped out.
    
    desmoinesdem Mon 4 Feb 8:51 PM
    - Oklahoma
      Obama has gained in Oklahoma absolutely, but not much relatively since Edwards dropped out.
      
      drinksgreentea Mon 4 Feb 9:25 PM

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