I’ve always been skeptical that the deal between Dennis Kucinich and John Edwards was a big factor in 2004. A lot of Kucinich supporters did go to Edwards where Dennis was not viable, but a lot went to Howard Dean despite the deal.
The Dick Gephardt supporters who flowed to Edwards as a second choice were much more numerous, and they overwhelmingly chose Edwards in the absence of any formal deal between the candidates.
I see a lot of speculation on the blogs about Bill Richardson instructing his supporters to choose Hillary Clinton if he is not viable. I don’t expect him to make that kind of announcement, and even if he did, I don’t expect that most of his supporters would move that way.
The little deals that precinct captains all over the state will make could be important, especially if Clinton’s captains try to deprive Barack Obama of delegates and vice versa.
But I don’t expect any kind of public instruction from the Democratic candidates about whom their supporters should back as a second choice.
What do you think?
2 Comments
Deal or No-Deal?
Interesting question. Its a crowded field, and that leaves a lot of room for dealing, but at the same time, the tightness of the race among the top three may tend to keep people in their original preference group.
Conventional wisdom is that the second choices of people who caucus for the next three matter a lot, but I am not seeing any clear pattern in those choices.
Here’s a problem to look out for: In 2004, we saw some paid staffers for Kerry attend the caucus as an observers, which is OK. But then they became the (non-voting) preference group leader, and spoke on behalf of Kerry, which is clearly against the rules. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this again.
corncam Mon 24 Dec 1:53 PM
I never heard of that happening around here
The Kerry field organizers I knew in Des Moines were frustrated because they were not able to attend the caucuses. They wanted to be there to see it first-hand. I remember calling my field organizer to tell him the results–he was just waiting by his cell phone to hear from the precinct captains.
desmoinesdem Mon 24 Dec 3:25 PM