A new Research 2000 poll for the Quad-City Times shows Barack Obama with a 9-point lead over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. Here are the overall results (500 likely caucus-goers with a margin of error of +/- 4.5%):
Barack Obama 33%
Hillary Clinton 24%
John Edwards 24%
Bill Richardson 9%
Joe Biden 3%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
It is still clearly a three-person race, with the slight advantage to Obama. To me, this is the key result from the poll:
“The poll also indicated an unsettled electorate, with 23 percent of Democrats and 34 percent of Republicans saying they were likely or very likely to change their minds before the caucuses. Only a third of Democrats, 33 percent, and just more than a quarter of Republicans, 27 percent, said they were not at all likely to change their minds. The rest, 44 percent on the Democratic side and 39 percent on the Republican side, said they are not very likely to change.”
The race is still quite fluid and second choices are definitely going to matter come caucus night when some candidate preference groups won’t be able to get viability.
You can get the full PDF of the results from Research 2000 here. They’re usually a pretty reliable polling firm when it comes to general election or primary polling, but I don’t know where they’re at in terms of accuracy for polling the caucuses.
Does this mean Edwards can still win the Iowa caucuses? I think so. And Mike Lux at Open Left says we should keep our eyes on him.
9 Comments
what's the age breakdown of respondents?
Has Obama improved a lot among the over-50 voters, or does this poll have a large sample of under-50 voters?
If Edwards and Clinton really are tied going into the caucuses, Edwards will come out ahead because of the second-choice factor.
desmoinesdem Fri 14 Dec 2:02 PM
age breakdown
Here you go:
So, 47% under 45 years and 53% 45 years and over seems like a pretty even break down to me (at least in terms of a generic overall sample). But the 16% block of 18-29 year olds seems a bit high to me for a survey of likely caucus-goers when younger voters aren’t as likely to turnout.
chris-woods Fri 14 Dec 2:21 PM
I believe that in 2004
two-thirds of caucus-goers were over 50. Anyone have those numbers?
I find it very hard to believe that 47 percent of caucus-goers will be under 45. In my precinct there are hardly any residents under 40.
desmoinesdem Fri 14 Dec 2:41 PM
fladem looked up the 2004 exit poll
Here’s what he found:
MyDD user psericks, an Obama supporter, recently made the case that Obama’s support is strongest among those age 30-44 (more than among those under 30):
http://www.mydd.com/story/2007…
desmoinesdem Fri 14 Dec 3:47 PM
Contrast with Diageo/Hotline poll
Age breakdown:
18-24 4%
25-34 9%
35-44 13%
45-54 20%
55-64 24%
65-74 13%
75+ 14%
Refused 2%
Mark Blumenthal was right. The demographics of these polls vary a great deal.
Two things I wonder about here, one is the 14% of likely caucus goers 75 or over. Going out on an icy night in January at 75+? My hat’s off to them. You Iowans are tough birds. And 2% didn’t answer the question. The category’s officially listed as “Don’t know/refused”. Wonder how many of the poll respondents fell into the “don’t know” category?
katerina Fri 14 Dec 3:43 PM
Skewed to older voters
It looks like Diageo/Hotline might be a bit skewed towards more middle-aged voters. While youth turnout was low in 2004, I expect it to go up in the caucuses this year simply because of the tremendous amount of youth outreach that’s happening. And I know the Obama campaign has been targeting high schoolers. If they can get their parents to take them with them (or even let them go themselves) it could provide some interesting dynamics though may not fundamentally change the results.
chris-woods Fri 14 Dec 4:27 PM
anyone know anything about this poll?
Apparently a new ISU poll was released today, but I don’t know when it was in the field or anything else about it:
http://www.huliq.com/44815/us-…
Top line is Clinton 31, Edwards 24, Obama 20. Basically the pollsters are surveying different universes of Iowans. No one knows which universe is going to show up on January 3.
Chris, how many Drake students plan to come back for the caucuses?
desmoinesdem Fri 14 Dec 5:29 PM
Old news
The ISU poll was released last Friday, so the reporting from that site is just plain wrong. And it couldn’t be a new one, because the numbers involved are exactly the same.
As for Drake, I’m not sure how many people signed up. Today or yesterday was the last day to sign up and the last I heard there were a couple dozen folks signed up. I’ll talk to some folks after the weekend and see what I can find out. Drake, in my opinion, did a horrible job of promoting the fact that students could sign up to stay overnight for the caucuses. I’ve heard from a few people that folks are opening up their houses/apartments for friends to stay at, but I’m not sure how many folks that will end up being.
chris-woods Fri 14 Dec 5:38 PM