“We” being everyone who wants to derail the Hillary inevitability train.
Clinton supporters are crowing about the latest Des Moines Register poll showing her leading likely Democratic voters in Iowa with 29 percent to 23 percent for Edwards, 22 percent for Obama, 8 percent for Richardson and 5 percent for Biden.
Here is the link for the poll:
Hillary has to be happy not just about her overall lead, but also her lead among voters over 65 and her big lead among women.
It's not good news for the other candidates, but it would be a mistake to say Hillary is going to cruise in Iowa. I think she is going to lose delegates when people go to their second choices on caucus night.
Edwards has dropped since May, but he hasn't been up on the air, while all of the other major candidates have blanketed the airwaves for two months or more. Despite that, he still leads among men and middle-aged Iowa voters. He is building a strong organization to identify and turn out supporters. I totally disagree with those who say he has no room to grow his support in Iowa.
Obama is holding steady. If he were my first choice, I'd be worried about the fact that he trails badly among older voters and does best among groups that are relatively unlikely to caucus (under 45 or independent). Clearly Obama needs to turn out record numbers of independents and first-time caucus-goers if he is going to win Iowa. He will have plenty of boots on the ground, though, so it is too early to count him out.
Richardson was at 8 percent in this poll, which is not a statistically significant change from the 10 percent he had in May. Clearly, though, he is stuck around the 10 percent mark in IA and NH and is not continuing to gain momentum. He needs to do something to change the dynamic of the race if he wants to break into the top tier in Iowa. He may be tempted to play it safe and try for a cabinet appointment in the event that Hillary wins, though.
All of the candidates need to try to reduce or eliminate Hillary's leads with women and older voters. Individual supporters and precinct captains need to make those voter contacts in their neighborhoods and make the case for alternatives to Hillary.
What do the rest of you think about the poll?
3 Comments
We don't agree
on Edwards and Obama. But we do agree on Hillary.
My take on this is that the sooner the race becomes a two-person fight, the better the chances are for Clinton to lose. From this perspective (hoping for Hillary derailment), I feel Obama victory in Iowa would be ideal. Even if Obama does not win Iowa, he has the resources to continue pretty strongly at least through Feb. 5. If there is another strong non-Hillary candidate Feb. 5 (say Edwards after Iowa victory), I think the division of the ABH vote is more likely to lead to Hillary nomination.
rf Tue 9 Oct 6:49 PM
don't you think
that Edwards and Obama supporters will collaborate at the caucuses to deprive Clinton of delegates wherever possible?
I think that Clinton is going to be badly hurt when caucus-goers have the chance to divide into second preference groups.
My ideal scenario would be an Edwards-Obama-Clinton finish in Iowa. You’d rather see Obama win, but we both agree that ideally, Clinton would come in third.
Hillary’s position is stronger than Dean’s was, and she is less likely to make a big mistake than Dean was, but this campaign is still anybody’s game.
desmoinesdem Wed 10 Oct 12:07 AM
Biden-- The only one with momentum.
Despite his low poll numbers, Biden is doing better then he was last month and the month before and the month before. Each month his support grows and his poll numbers rise. Currently, he sits somewhere between 5 and 9% in Iowa up from his starting point of 1% when the campaign began. Folks in Iowa are coming to the realization that if the next President is going to be a Democrat it may have to be Joe Biden. Mind you however, this isn’t a bad thing at all. Over the past 35 years Joe Biden has served in the United States Senate, he has gained the respect of both the Democrats and Republicans. Passing legislation such as the Violence Against Women’s Act as well as the Biden COP Bill Joe Biden has had to reach across the aisle and gain the support of all members of Congress both Democrat and Republican. Biden is the only candidate with a track record of doing so.
Not only is Biden the most electable candidate, but in my mind the issue that is going to put Joe Biden over the top is his political solution for Iraq. The more and more people Biden shares his plan with the more and more people support it. Iowans are going to vote for Joe Biden; believe me, they will! History teaches us many things. The only question that we need to ask ourselves is if we are going to listen to what history is saying. Throughout time, self-sustaining sectarian violence has ended in one of four ways. 1.) A dictator is put in place. 2.) A country occupies the nation. 3.) The civil war expires and the parties kill one another off. Or 4.) A federalist system of government is instituted. The later of the options is the only feasible solution for Iraq. Under the Biden-Gelb plan the fighting sanctions would be separated giving local control to the Sunnis, Shia and Kurds. This will allow the breathing room everyone has discussed and then political reconciliation will finally be able to occur. A similar plan was instituted in Bosnia and peace ensued. This plan will work and currently 9% of Iowans know it will work. Once more learn of the advantages of the Biden plan the higher he will rise in the polls and as a result we will all be pleased to see Hillary Clinton slip.
rpritchard Sat 13 Oct 4:22 PM