As I mentioned on my personal blog earlier today former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack is expected to endorse former First Lady and current New York Senator Hillary Clinton in her bid for President at a Monday announcement here in Des Moines.  We can address my confusion about the situation over at Political Forecast, but in this post I want to focus on the substantive benefits of endorsements in the Iowa Caucuses.

David Yepsen has a front-page analysis on the endorsement on the Register’s website right now.  He argues that endorsements are part of the old politics in Iowa:

“In Iowa, endorsement politics is old politics. Nobody “delivers” anything anymore, particularly in high-profile races. Yet we media people make a big deal out of them, despite the fact Iowa just doesn’t have the sort of machine politics once seen in urban areas or ethnic neighborhoods. In those places, an endorsement from a key political leader or organization means something, because that leader can produce votes for the anointed candidate. Even in those places today, such influence is on the wane.”

To his credit, he does cite many examples like AFSCME’s endorsement of Howard Dean in 2004 and Mike Blouin in 2006, Senator Tom Harkin’s endorsement of Howard Dean in 2004, and Vilsack’s endorsement of Dusky Terry in the Democratic Secretary of State primary as cases where high-profile endorsements don’t yield results.

In 2004, most statewide elected officials waited until late in the race to make endorsements.  According to the Democracy in Action 2004 page at GWU, most of the officials made their endorsements within the last two weeks in the lead up to the Caucuses.  Already in the 2008 race, Tom Miller and Michael Fitzgerald have endorsed Barack Obama’s candidacy, while Sen. Harkin had endorsed Tom Vilsack.  Their page says this:

“Whether or not endorsements make any difference on Caucus Night is debatable, but they are important in the pre-primary period when developing campaigns strive to build credibility.  Campaigns go to considerable effort to round up endorsements.  The first targets are prominent party leaders including elected officials, former officials, erstwhile candidates, and party activists.  In addition, campaigns seek support of community activists and business and civic leaders; Democratic candidates also woo labor support.

The timing and format of endorsement announcements can be significant.  A mass endorsement, with elected officials lined up behind the candidate, can draw significant attention.  Alternatively, rolling out a steady stream of endorsements over a period of time can bolster the impression of a growing campaign.  Picking up a prominent supporter who had formerly been with another campaign is regarded as a coup, worthy of a press release or press conference. “

Admittedly, the debate all depends on the statistics and results one decides to pull out.

So far, Vilsack’s endorsement might only mean that he’s encouraging his former staffers to take jobs with the Clinton campaign.  To some degree, that’s already happening.  Vilsack’s Polk County Organizer, Amanda York, has already signed on to Clinton’s campaign and was at Wednesday’s Polk County Dems Off-Year Caucus.  His former Deputy Internet Director, Kevin Thurman, also now works for Clinton’s campaign.  But Vilsack’s encouragement also might not mean as much to former staffers.  Udai Rohatgi, another Internet staffer, now works for the Obama Campaign.  Teresa Vilmain, one of Vilsack’s seasoned presidential campaign experts, is likely to sign on with Clinton as well (if she hasn’t already).  So, we’ll see where the chips end up falling.

I’m of the opinion that endorsements by local leaders are more likely to make a difference early on in the race to give credibility to the candidate and to get organization going.  High-profile officials tend to be more beneficial later on in the race, when you’re trying to reach out to undecideds and use a popular, high-profile official to say, “Your respected leader has faith in me and my campaign, please support me in your precinct caucus.”  Then again, I’m not a seasoned caucus veteran.  So, tell me what you think in the comments below.