I’m skipping ARG polls for my average, because they are awful.
Taking only those from the last month (just Zogby and Strategic Vision), the average is:
Edwards – 24.5
Clinton – 19.5
Obama – 17.5
Vilsack – 12.5
Biden – 4
No one else had poll results for both. It is interesting that Biden has seemingly positioned himself at the top of the second tier.
If you go back to the Research 2000 poll (pdf) (taken before either Obama or Clinton announced) the polls don’t change that much:
Edwards – 23.7
Obama – 19
Clinton – 16.3
Vilsack – 12.3
Right now Obama and Clinton are fighting for 2nd place in Iowa. We’ll see which one can break away from that first. Edwards is coasting on residual support from 2004, and will need to raise some money and start getting some organization set up in Iowa if he wants to both hold those people and generate new supporters.
1 Comment
wait till Edwards cranks up his campaign
When he starts spending more time here again, and people can see him and the other candidates side by side, I think voters will remember what they liked about him last time around. I don’t see anyone touching Edwards in the smaller cities and communities–he just connects really well with people there. As a precinct captain for Kerry in the Des Moines suburbs, I remember that tidal wave of support for Edwards toward the end, especially among suburbanites in their 30s and 40s. He will be battling Obama for this demographic, I expect.
Having Ed Fallon in his corner should help Edwards in the large urban areas.
I have no idea what their plans are, but if I were the Edwards campaign, I would use Ed Fallon heavily as a surrogate in the areas where Obama is expected to be strong, especially college campuses. Endorsements don’t always mean a lot in Iowa politics, but in this case I think Fallon as a longtime peacenik and former Kucinich backer can make a strong case that Edwards is the best progressive in the race.
desmoinesdem Thu 15 Feb 2:20 PM