Today, the Hotline blog ponders rematches for House races in 2008, particularly GOP incumbents who got the boot that want to get back in.
It’s probably an appropriate time to start ponder 2008 House races in Iowa. Since IA-01 and IA-02 are pretty solid, I’ll put my “races to watch” on IA-03 and IA-04.
- IA-01: Bruce Braley put a stomping on Mike Whalen here. I don’t think there’s any stretch of the imagination that gives big Mike the win here in ’08, barring monsterous scandal. I don’t think Bill Dix or Brian Kennedy have a shot at this either, so you have to wonder who the GOP will try to recruit for this seat. I hear Jim Nussle has some time on his hands… 🙂
IA-02: Congressman Dave Loebsack. Yep. It’s still weird to say it. This looks like a solidly Dem district, now that Jim Leach is going to teach at Princeton. So, the real question becomes, “Will someone try to primary Dave Loebsack?” My guess is the answer is “no,” but I would think primary-ing Loebsack would be easier than primary-ing Boswell.
IA-03: Congressman Leonard Boswell is going to be hard to miss this primary season. With all of the Democratic presidentials coming through Iowa in the coming months, he will serve as their escort. Unlike Harkin, I haven’t heard him say he’s backing Vilsack 1000 percent. That gives Boswell the opportunity to tour around with all of the “rock stars,” speak to thousands of Iowans in the 3rd district almost without lifting a finger at event planning. Pretty nice deal for him. With rumors that Ed Fallon is running for Mayor of Des Moines, Boswell’s main primary competition would be Geri Huser. She’s just as moderate as Boswell, so I’m not sure she would arouse enough angst. Jeff Lamberti seems like the obvious challenger on the Repub-side, but who knows if he can keep other motivated R’s out of the primary?
IA-04: This will most certainly be a rematch between Selden Spencer and Rep. Tom Latham. If Selden can get some traction early, maybe he can score some DCCC dollars and score the upset. It doesn’t look like Bush’s approval ratings are going anywhere but further down, so I think the environment is still ripe for a Spencer victory. He’ll need to run a series of negative ads in 2-3 different TV markets. I’m just not sure there will be enough money for him to make it happen, since a lot of it will be going to Harkin, Vilsack, other presidentials, and winnable State Leg races. If he gets the money, he could win.
IA-05: I would initially say Joyce Schulte. However, if Steve King runs against Harkin, maybe some rogue conservative veteran/farmer Democrat could emerge from the black in the 5th and make a good run. It’s a long shot to win conservative Iowa districts, but it’s happened before (see: Boswell, 1996)
Your thoughts?
7 Comments
Nussle
It is doubtful Nussle will try and take the seat back. He knows he’s got a tough fight in a fairly Democratic district plus he’s busy trying to pretend he’s consulting/working for Giuliani’s campaign for president.
chris-woods Tue 30 Jan 10:01 PM
thoughts
What would be the rationale for primarying Loebsack? He seems like a good fit for the district. If some bigger names are tempted, they should have taken on Leach. I don’t see it happening.
I also doubt Boswell will face a primary challenge, although frankly I’d like to see one. I suspect he will retire after Iowa loses a House seat following the 2010 census.
The DCCC is not going to put money behind Spencer unless Latham retires for some reason. There are too many other candidates who came much closer than 16 points in 2006.
Oh, and Nussle is not going to try to win his seat back. It would be an uphill battle, and he’d only end up in the minority anyway.
desmoinesdem Wed 31 Jan 1:22 PM
King/Harkin
How likely is it that Steve King would run against Harkin? I don’t think either of them are going anywhere soon, so IA-5 has gotta be King again, right? Any thoughts?
briguy Wed 7 Feb 5:36 PM
Ego of the King
I think it depends how big of an ego Steve King has. If anything, I think all of us should be encouraging him to do so.
Steve King would run a Tom Tancredo-esque campaign against Harkin, making immigration and maybe the Iraq War the main issues. It could get interesting. But seeing as how Mr. King is in campaign debt now, and historically has been a terrible fundraiser, I think Harkin wins it big. Harkin’s work and stances on choice and stem cell research easily put him over the top.
snipehunter Wed 7 Feb 5:50 PM
God is on his side
I had this same conversation with a couple or 5th District Democrats last week, and they rightly pointed out the one thing that King has going for him – God is on his side.
Of course it is King’s ego that makes him think he has been divinely anointed. But here’s to him. I hope he runs against Harkin.
Even with King out, the 5th District would be really tough for a Democrat to win. I did hear there is a new Democrat interested in running, maybe a young man from Harlan or Atlantic?
It would probably be better for Iowa Democrats if Latham ran against Harkin. Please encourage Lazy Latham to get off his butt and run for Senate!
Speaking of lame, I got a letter from Latham this week explaining that he supports Bush’s surge because it was called for by the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group.
Which is more infuriating, the thought that Latham might be dumb enough to believe that, or that Latham thinks I am dumb enough to believe him?
tom Wed 7 Feb 10:18 PM
Why no State Legislators?
Any idea why we never have a challenge to Latham from an already established state Legislator?
boringdad Wed 7 Feb 10:17 PM
Not worth giving up a seat?
Latham will be really tough to knock off, and some legislators would not be willing to give up their seat to make a run against him. That was Amanda Ragan’s (State Senate, Mason City) excuse last year. Helen Miller (Representative from Ft. Dodge) is another possibility.
tom Wed 7 Feb 10:23 PM