The House Majority PAC, one of the biggest spenders supporting Democrats in U.S. House races, has confirmed Iowa’s first and third Congressional districts are among its “top targets” for the 2026 election cycle.

The PAC also put IA-02 on a list of sixteen House districts that “could become competitive” in 2026.

Rick Morain is the former publisher and owner of the Jefferson Herald, for which he writes a regular column.

President Joe Biden’s recent pardon of his son Hunter Biden has reignited the debate over the presidential pardoning power. And argument over this constitutionally protected prerogative of the president will not go away with Donald Trump’s return to power next month. Trump already has used the pardoning power for the benefit of his political cronies during his first term (2017-2021).

Biden is reportedly mulling whether he should go further in light of Trump’s threats to bring charges against some of his political enemies after he returns to office in 2025. In light of those threats, Biden is reportedly considering preemptive pardons for former U.S. Representative Liz Cheney, former Representative and now Senator Adam Schiff, former Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci, and General Mark Milley, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Channing Dutton is a lawyer in Urbandale. His duty is climate action for all children.

When it comes to the biggest political blunder of the 21st century, no mistake by the Republicans compares to the colossal fumble the Democrats have made on climate change. We saw it on Black Friday during the Hawks football game with my beloved Huskers: a tied score, the clock ticking down, and the ball bouncing on the turf. Do you remember? That was a fumble of opportunity. 

The same has been true during the past several election cycles where the Democrats seem unable to make the play that wins the game. I think of it as the Climate Change fumble.

Senator Joni Ernst has her first declared 2026 primary challenger. Joshua Smith announced on X/Twitter on December 5 that he plans to run against Ernst as a Republican in 2026. The “blue-collar, working-class veteran” and father of seven promised he would be “the most pro-life, pro-family, small government candidate running for a federal office” next cycle.

So far, Smith’s campaign looks more like a bid for online engagement than a serious threat to Ernst’s career. But in a December 9 telephone interview, he explained why he’s confident he can build a strong GOP primary campaign.

MAGA activists are increasingly unhappy with U.S. Senator Joni Ernst and looking for someone to run against her in Iowa’s 2026 Senate primary.

If conservatives aren’t able to stop Ernst from winning the nomination, they may have a place to park their protest votes in the general election. Libertarian Thomas Laehn again confirmed to Bleeding Heartland he’s seriously considering a Senate bid.

Eleventh in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Many factors helped Iowa Republicans expand their already large state legislative majorities in 2024. Two of the most important were Donald Trump’s dominance in the presidential race, and the continued decline in ticket-splitting.

By my calculations, Trump carried 71 of the 100 Iowa House districts, up from 63 state House districts the last time he was on the ballot in 2020. In all four Democratic-held House districts that flipped this year, voters preferred Trump. That helped Republican Ryan Weldon defeat State Representative Molly Buck in House district 41 (Ankeny), David Blom defeat Sue Cahill in House district 52 (Marshalltown), Jennifer Smith defeat Chuck Isenhart in House district 72 (Dubuque), and Christian Hermanson win the open House district 59 (Mason City).

Trump also carried 20 of the 25 state Senate districts that were on the ballot, including both where Democratic incumbents lost: Mike Pike defeated Nate Boulton in Senate district 20 (eastern Polk County), and Dave Sires defeated Eric Giddens in Senate district 38 (mostly located in Black Hawk County). The only Iowa GOP lawmaker to lose in 2024, State Senator Brad Zaun, faced Matt Blake in a district where voters preferred Kamala Harris for president.

Ticket-splitting used to be more common in Iowa. Republicans maintained control of the state House in 2012, even as Barack Obama carried 61 of the 100 districts that year. (No wonder few observers expected Iowa’s hard shift to the right, beginning in 2016.)

But in 2020 and again this year, only seven Iowa legislators managed to win in districts where voters preferred the other party’s presidential nominee.

I calculated the 2024 numbers using certified precinct-level vote totals from the Iowa Secretary of State’s election results website. Figures on the 2020 presidential vote in each district come from the Iowa House and Iowa Senate maps Josh Hughes created in Dave’s Redistricting App.

This post covers the six Iowa House members and one state senator in descending order, by how much they outperformed the top of their own party’s ticket.

Jason Benell lives in Des Moines with his wife and two children. He is a combat veteran, former city council candidate, and president of Iowa Atheists and Freethinkers. He first published this essay on his Substack newsletter, The Odd Man Out.

A common refrain, particularly in centrist-to-liberal spaces, is that in order to make any kind of progress or reach consensus, we must always be conciliatory and tread lightly when discussing topics with folks who oppose the prevailing Democratic viewpoint.

The post-election analysis of 2016 was a good example of this, when “economic anxiety” became a stand-in for folks who were just uninformed on the issues. We saw it again in 2020 with folks being “skeptical of COVID” instead of simply uninformed.

Already, we are seeing it again—but notably, a lot less—in the aftermath of the 2024 election. We hear folks were “worried about the economy” despite, once again, folks just being uninformed.

Porter McNeil, an Illinois-based communications consultant, was Illinois Communications Director for the Kerry-Edwards’ presidential campaign. He assisted with the 2021 “factory town” report (American Family Voices & 21^st Century Democrats) and was re-elected in 2024 to a seat on the Rock Island County Board.

In August 2000, fresh from the Democratic National Convention, Al Gore and Joe Lieberman flew overnight from Los Angeles to begin a four-day Mark Twain-style boat ride on the Mississippi River. 

Their “Setting Course for America’s Future” trip charted a political path across the sand bars of Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Missouri and critical blue-collar swing counties. That trip represents one of the Democratic Party’s top challenges in 2026 and 2028. The path to 270 and a congressional majority in Congress runs through rural regions and working-class factory towns across the Midwest.

Tenth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Across the country, voters elected a record number of women to serve in state legislatures in 2024. About a third of all U.S. state lawmakers will be women next year, and in seven state legislative chambers, women will comprise 50 percent or more of members.

In contrast, the 2024 elections moved the Iowa legislature further away from gender parity. The decline was steeper in the state House, where Iowans elected fewer women than at any point since 2014. A retirement produced a smaller drop in female representation in the upper chamber.

Dexter Merschbrock is a member of National Association of Letter Carriers Branch 373 from Cedar Rapids, spouse to a public school teacher, and father of three. He is originally from Fort Madison. 

The Iowa Democratic Party’s current state chair Rita Hart often talked in the last two years about the 90,000 Democrats in the state who turned out to vote in 2020, but didn’t turn out in the 2022 midterm elections. The theory seemed to be that if those Democrats voted in 2024, the party would see improved results. Either this theory was wrong or, even worse, Democrats failed to turn out 2020 voters at the same time Republicans were increasing their turnout percentage.

Either way, the result is the same: Iowa Democrats, led by chair Rita Hart, failed to convince enough Iowans to vote for them.

Randy Evans is executive director of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that promotes openness and transparency in Iowa’s state and local governments. He can be reached at DMRevans2810@gmail.com. 

Many people would rather get their teeth drilled than discuss economics. If you are one of them, dial up your dentist, because today’s topic probably will make you uncomfortable.

Some politicians like to talk about other countries “stealing” the jobs of American workers. The politicians would have us believe these countries are snatching jobs right from under the noses of unwilling, and unwitting, employers in the United States.

A menswear writer named Derek Guy recently provided an important dose of context for American consumers. The story he told shows politicians have not been completely candid about the economic realities behind this trend.

Kurt Meyer writes a weekly column for the Nora Springs – Rockford Register and the Substack newsletter Showing Up, where this essay (originally published in two parts) first appeared. He served as chair of the executive committee (the equivalent of board chair) of Americans for Democratic Action, America’s most experienced liberal organization.

It seems I lucked out. I don’t know what the statute of limitations is on the illegal sale of raw milk, but I’m about to make a confession. If my violation is so heinous that I simply cannot “run out the clock” on this and enforcement is still possible after five-plus decades, then I’m in big trouble.

My confession: I was part of what, in retrospect, can only be called a raw-milk “syndicate” for maybe five years in my mid-to-late teens. Co-conspirators were my parents and at least one brother, my back-up milker, who always seemed somewhat less helpful than I wished. My customers, beneficiaries of my crime ring, were nearby farm families, plus a thirsty household in Mona, and two guys Dad worked with at the plant… Hormel’s in Austin, Minnesota.

Yeah, we smuggled contraband raw milk across state lines.

Bernie Scolaro is a retired school counselor, a past president of the Sioux City Education Association, and former Sioux City school board member.

We do not always have all the information when we first make a decision. After further review and consideration, the ability to change your mind is not always easy, maybe even embarrassing. But changing your mind does not mean you lied.

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com   

Everyone watching TV has probably seen Mattress Firm’s ads with the tagline, “How do you sleep at night?” There’s quite a variety. There’s the muscle man at the gym drenching the weightlifting bench in sweat and then refusing to wipe it up. There’s Nana catfishing on a dating app using a fake bikini clad photo and then saying, “They even send me gift cards sometimes,” and there’s the barefoot guy feet up on the plane.

What do these ads illustrate? They all show a person behaving badly, and then bragging that they sleep well because of Mattress Firm.

Steve Corbin is emeritus professor of marketing at the University of Northern Iowa and a freelance writer who receives no remuneration, funding, or endorsement from any for-profit business, nonprofit organization, political action committee, or political party. 

Donald Trump received nearly 2.3 million more votes than Kamala Harris and captured 312 electoral college votes to become America’s 47^th president. Compared to Trump’s performance in 2016 and 2020, the Republican improved his vote share in virtually all demographic categories, including women.

On November 6, I reached out to women across America, from both political parties, and asked them to react to the election results in two sentences or less. Thirty-six women, from 24 states, replied to my inquiry. The response was so large that this column boomeranged from an intended singular op-ed to a three-part series. (Editor’s note: Bleeding Heartland is publishing all three parts below.)

Ninth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

With the 2024 election results finalized following the December 2 meeting of the State Board of Canvass, we know the basics about Iowa’s general election turnout.

More information about voter participation by age group, gender, and party affiliation will be available when the Iowa Secretary of State’s office publishes the statewide statistical report in January 2025.

A few takeaways for now:

Eighth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Iowans could reasonably view the 2016 general election as an anomaly. Diverging sharply from the national mood, this state voted for Donald Trump by more than a 9-point margin, even as Hillary Clinton won the nationwide popular vote by a little more than 2 points. But maybe that was a one-off; Iowa had been a swing state for the previous six presidential elections.

When Joe Biden failed to flip a single Iowa county in 2020—even heavily Catholic counties where he should have done substantially better than Clinton—I concluded that Iowa was no longer a swing state. That post got some pushback from Democrats who thought I was reading too much into the results.

Trump’s third win in Iowa, by his largest margin yet, underscores how far this state has moved from the center of the national electorate. As Democrats search for a way back to winning more statewide and down-ballot races, they need to recognize that reality.

Rick Morain is the former publisher and owner of the Jefferson Herald, for which he writes a regular column.

President-elect Donald Trump’s picks for key positions in government suggest that he envisions his cabinet playing a very different role from past administrations.

Most of Trump’s nominees have relatively little administrative experience or familiarity with the duties and obligations of the departments they will lead, if confirmed. Instead, their chief and uniting characteristic appears to be unshakeable loyalty to Mr. Trump.

Al Charlson is a North Central Iowa farm kid, lifelong Iowan, and retired bank trust officer. The Bremer County Independent previously published a version of this commentary.

This is not the column I planned to write. Economics and government tax and spending policy are my primary opinion writing focus, and there’s plenty to talk about. But I’ll get back to that another time. 

I am compelled to write now about immigration and the incoming administration’s plans for mass deportation.

Governor Kim Reynolds has appointed former State Representative Dustin Hite as a District Court judge. The governor’s office announced the appointment on November 29, one day before the end of the 30-day window for Reynolds to name either Hite or the other nominee for the position, Keokuk County attorney Amber Thompson.

Hite served two terms in the state legislature, and as chair of the House Education Committee helped enact some of Reynolds’ agenda. He fast-tracked bills in 2021 that required schools to provide fully in-person instruction as an option, and prohibited school districts and local governments from imposing mask mandates.

However, Hite earned the governor’s wrath by not bringing school voucher bills up for a vote in the Education Committee during the 2021 or 2022 legislative sessions. In addition, he opted not to assign school “bathroom bills” to a subcommittee, and opposed various “tort reform” proposals to limit damages Iowans could recover in medical malpractice cases or lawsuits involving trucking companies. 

Hite was among four House Republicans who opposed school voucher bills and subsequently lost their 2022 primaries after Reynolds endorsed GOP rivals. The governor recorded a robocall urging voters to back Helena Hayes in Hite’s district. Hayes was just re-elected to a second term representing House district 88.